Evaluating progress for the Cards
Through 4 games, where are the Cards getting better...and what's getting worse?
We’re 4 games into the Louisville basketball season and things haven’t been going great. There are definitely concerns with the effort level and conditioning (these may be related) that keep the Cardinals from really putting forth a competitive showing for all 40 minutes. However, one of my goals for this Louisville basketball season is to focus more on progress and improvement than absolute results. In that spirit, I’d like to take some time to highlight where progress is being made, where it’s not, and an area where Louisville has been successful.
Making some steps forward on defense
Louisville’s roster strategy this season can be summarized in one word: length. Back in August, I wrote about how length tends to show up in team stats improvement:
The common sense answer is that a team should be better defensively because they can challenge shots. The Cards haven’t always been sharp on defense, but I do believe they are starting to show some results when they can set their defense after a made basket. This seems to bear out when looking at the opponent’s points per possession after UofL makes a basket:
Bellarmine scored at a rate of 103.8 points/100 possessions
Wright State put up 84.1/100 poss
App State registered 83.4 pts/100 poss
Arkansas scored 98.5 pts/100 poss
Considering that Arkansas rates about 6-10 pts/100 poss better than Wright State or App State, that’s a pretty solid last 3 games after a rough start against Bellarmine. The Cards are defending the three pointer a bit better in these spots, with their last 3 opponents hitting just 5-24 from deep in these spots after Bellarmine went 4-8.
Against Arkansas, Louisville got absolutely shredded after turnovers; excluding end of half “team turnovers”, my data shows UofL gave up 30 points on 21 possessions beginning with a Cardinals turnover. But when the Arkansas possession started because UofL did something positive (made a shot), the Cards held Arkansas to 30 points on 30 possessions. This could be a sign that Louisville can defend at a solid level when good things are happening for them, but when their confidence takes a hit they can’t replicate that. For example, Louisville gets to set their defense if they commit a deadball turnover, but they’re giving up over 126 pts/100 possessions in these situations. I suspect they may need the confidence boost from seeing the ball go through the net.
The offense is increasingly Ellis-dependent
This is one that you don’t need a lot of data to know. It’s pretty clear that El Ellis is very ball-dominant for the Cards. But the data paints a picture that is extreme, and probably not healthy for team chemistry.
Ellis is 8th in the nation per KenPom in % of team’s shots taken when on the floor, taking 38% of UofL’s field goal attempts during his minutes. Only 2 players above him play in a Power 6 conference, and both are bench guys who play about 16 minutes per game and just fire away. UofL has increasingly become the El Ellis show over each game:
Against Bellarmine, Ellis took 29.4% of UofL’s shots when in
Against Wright State, it was 40%….
Against App State it climbed to 41.9%…
and against Arkansas, El Ellis took 50% of UofL’s shots when he was in the game
Ellis is hitting 38% from three and 46% from two, so he’s actually producing at an OK level…but there’s no way this is actually going to help Louisville’s offense. Ellis is averaging twice as many turnovers as assists, which is not what you want from your point guard. Other Cards are seeing their role diminished as Ellis takes over, when they might be able to be more efficient than Ellis.
The two playes who are seeing their roles diminish are Jae’lyn Withers and Mike James. Just take a look at how they’ve been marginalized:
Vs Bellarmine, Withers took 30% of UofL’s shots and James took 19% when they were in the game with Ellis
Vs Wright State, Withers was at 20% and James at 8% with Ellis in
Vs App State, Withers took just 11% and James took 12% alongside Ellis
Vs Arkansas, Withers was again at 11% of UofL shots and James 7%
Withers are James have been effective scorers when given the chance! Withers has an effective FG% of 58% and James an eye-popping 62.5%, but they are reduced to spectators alongside El Ellis. When Ellis sits, James takes 19% of UofL shots and Withers 30%…so they can do more, but the offense isn’t flowing at all. This needs to get fixed, but with a slate of difficult Power 6 foes up ahead it may be tough to get Ellis to buy in for the good of the program.
The Cards can hit the boards
There’s not a lot of bright spots you can point to this season so far, but one has been Louisville’s defensive rebounding. In my article over the summer on the impact of length, defensive rebounding was one area where having longer wings really helped teams. That’s showing up so far this year as UofL ranks 24th as of this writing in defensive rebounding rate, per KenPom. Last year the Cards were a very solid 54th, but I did expect this to be an area where they could even improve further…and that’s happened. Louisville was even impressive against Arkansas, holding the Razorbacks below their season average in rebounding their own misses. Sydney Curry, Jae’lyn Withers, and Brandon Huntley-Hatfield all rank among the top 200 or so in this stat, so it’s not just the result of one single Cardinal.
Defensive rebounding is an underrated stat, and I think of it as akin to a turnover….it finishes off a possession. The Cards do have a couple foes coming up who rank in the top 70 nationally in offensive rebounding (Maryland and Miami) so they will get tested…we’ll see if they can maintain this strength.
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