The flagship programs of the SEC and Big 12 are going head to head on Saturday, but it’s a bit of a Bizarro World matchup. Kentucky stomped the Jayhawks by 18 in Allen Fieldhouse last season, but Kansas went on to win the national title while Kentucky, uh, didn’t. Kansas is ranked #9 in the latest AP poll but enters the game having lost 3 straight, while Kentucky is unranked but on a 4 game winning streak. Kansas began 6-1 in Quad 1 games before losing their last 3, while Kentucky opened just 2-5 in Quad 1 & 2 games before winning their last 3 such contests. Both teams have significant motivation in this game, apart from the thrill of playing another legendary program. Kansas is looking to regain some confidence and halt their slide, while Kentucky needs to add a notable win to add some breathing room to their tournament resume.
For my premium subscribers, I’ll spend some time covering the important factors around this matchup such as:
Kansas’ difficult schedule holding back some of their stats
Where Kansas (especially Jalen Wilson and Gradey Dick) are likely to have the most success on offense
How Kansas’ defense will try to create challenges for UK’s offense, and where UK can have success
Adjusting for degree of difficulty
Looking at Kansas’ page on KenPom.com, I was struck by the lack of any clear standout areas on offense or defense. The only thing Kansas ranks in the top 25 in is defensive steal percentage, which is very useful but isn’t enough on its own to make a team into one of the top 10. Kansas is barely in the top 100 in any offensive stat, and while they are very goot at defending twos (39th), they are worse than 200th in both defensive rebounding and opponent free throw rate. So, how exactly are they 25th in offensive efficiency and 18th in defensive efficiency?
The answer is that Kansas has played the hardest schedule in America, per Kenpom (and several other similar sites). They have played just 5 games out of 20 against teams outside the top 100, and just 3 teams worse than 200th; for comparison’s sake, UK has played 9 and 7, respectively. The worst team in the Big 12 is #70 ranked Texas Tech, and the conference has 7 of its 10 members (confusing, right?) in the top 26 at KenPom. Kansas is in the middle of an 8 game stretch where #30 ranked Kentucky is the worst team they will play.
That makes it hard to evaluate Kansas based on their stats, unadjusted for opponents. Thankfully, there is a site that attempts to adjust stats just for this type of thing. Haslametrics has some very interesting takes on Kansas, indeed. The Jayhawks have hit 35.7% of their threes, for example, but have played 8 of their 20 games against teams with top-50 3pt FG% defense. Haslametrics credits Kansas as the equivalent of a team shooting 37.9% against an average defense. Some other key notes from Haslametrics, all adjusted for opponent:
Kansas is the 5th best team at defending midrange shots
Kansas’s ability to limit opponents from shooting threes is a bit overblown, as they rank just 239th
While drawing free throws seems to be a Jayhawk weakness, they rank a little better than average after adjusting for opponents (166th)
The main takeaway: stats that don’t adjust for opponent can be misleading if a team plays an extremely hard (or extremely easy) schedule.
Kansas on offense
With special thanks to Will Warren of Stats By Will, here’s a chart showing Kansas’ players and how effective they are at scoring from each level in halfcourt offense:
Kansas basically has two Guys: Jalen Wilson and Gradey Dick. Most of what anyone else gets comes off of what those two create. McCullar and Adams can do some decent work around the paint, but they will score off of actions like cuts or as roll men instead of creating for themselves. Dajuan Harris’ 3pt FG% looks much better this year, but that’s due to shooting 60%+ on unguarded catch and shoot threes; teams don’t really worry about him from deep.
Jalen Wilson is the headliner, although his scoring is more due to volume than efficiency. He takes almost 33% of Kansas’ shots when he’s on the court and has an effective FG% under 50%. He’s the guy who can create a shot out of nothing, but the flip side is he takes a lot of low quality shots. The interesting thing is that, despite being 6’8” and 225 pounds he’s much more effective away from the basket. Wilson hits just 51% of his layups, and hits that or better on runners, midrange jumpers, and open catch and shoot threes. The goal when defending Wilson is to contest his shot with discipline and try to bait him into taking something more contested, or let him drive into traffic around the basket. He’ll attack sloppy closeouts and create quality midrange shots, and he hits them over 50% of the time. Wilson’s weakness is a bit too much confidence in his shooting; over 60% of his catch and shoot attempts are guarded and he hits just 27% of those.
Gradey Dick is a flamethrower. He’s like a 6’8” CJ Fredrick (Iowa version?) in that he has no weaknesses from deep. Dick hits 42% of guarded catch and shoot threes, 45% unguarded, and 48% off the dribble. He can also attack closeouts and turn them into rhythym midrange jumpers that go in over half of the time. Dick’s weakness is that he isn’t very crafty in the paint, however. He’s only 5-15 on runners or hook shots, so he doesn’t look to those much when he’s driving. Dick converts just 53% of shots at the rim despite his length.
Wilson and Dick are also tremendous shooters from deep in transition. They both hit at a higher rate there than in halfcourt; Dick hits over 55% of his transition threes. The two of them account for almost exactly half of Kansas’ total shots in transition, so those are the two you absolutely have to be concerned about.
Nobody else on Kansas is a spot-up threat, but the Jayhawks do have some nice wrinkles to punish teams who send help when Wilson or Dick get free. They’ll have non-shooters cut to the basket if their defender leaves them, and Kansas converts these into baskets at a 67% clip. Kentucky has to be careful not get burned on these, especially by KJ Adams and Kevin McCullar (likely guarded by Toppin and Livingston/Reeves).
Kansas on defense
The Jayhawks have basically nobody over 6’8” who will play any meaningful minutes against good teams. KJ Adams is their only regular who makes any effort at shotblocking. Kansas tries to use quickness and solid wing length by sending help defenders to jump passing lanes or feign help. They can guard ballhandlers effectively with Dajuan Harris, Kevin McCullar, and even Wilson, which shows up in their ability to force contested midrange shots. Antonio Reeves has had success lately by converting midrange jumpers and runnrs, and that’s something he’s very good at; I just don’t know if he’ll be able to do it against Kansas.
Something Kansas does VERY well is recover to dangerous spot-up shooters well. In pick and roll, the Jayhawks focus on stopping the ballhandler and contesting spot-up threes. 57% of catch-and-shoot threes against Kansas are guarded, which is a strong ratio. Unguarded shooters only hit 36% against them, which is an indicator that the Jayhawks will leave poor shooters open. These choices do leave Kansas vulnerable to roll men, however; they have been poor at defending this specific action. Kentucky only uses the roll man as the scorer in pick and roll about 15% of the time; it’s far more common for UK to have the ballhandler take a shot or pass to a spot-up shooter. The Wildcats may want to adjust this, as both Wallace and Wheeler have been excellent at creating baskets for a roller. Wheeler has been excellent this season at finding shooters when he runs pick and roll, but I don’t know if he’s going to have the same success finding open shooters against this defense. If Tshiebwe, Toppin, and even Livingston can get the ball off the roll or on cuts, they should be able to finish at the rim against this defense.
Kansas has been good at defending post-ups this season, with a fairly heavy dose of doubling. Oscar Tshiebwe has been better lately at passing out of the post, and he’ll need to be ready to do this again. The Jayhawks have been burnt by players who can pass from the post to shooters.
Given Kansas’ lack of size inside, it’s probably no surprise that they are vulnerable to giving up scores off of offensive rebounds. They aren’t afraid to foul to prevent putbacks, but they give up a lot of putback attempts and Kentucky should be able to find success there. Expect a lot of free throws for Oscar Tshiebwe.
What I think will happen
Wallace, Reeves, and Fredrick combine to take more 2 pointers than 3 pointers
Oscar Tshiebwe takes 10 or more free throw attempts
Kentucky has a single-digit lead with 4 minutes left, and Reeves’ ability to hit jumpers is a deciding factor
Score prediction: Kentucky 74, Kansas 70.