After a stretch of 4 straight Saturdays playing teams rated in the top 20 by KenPom (3 of them on the road), UK got a brief respite against South Carolina and Florida. While the Cats were able to rack up 2 victories, they also racked up a pair of injuries as Jacob Toppin and TyTy Washington suffered ankle injuries. The timing couldn’t be worse as Kentucky now faces their most difficult 4 game stretch of the season. in fact, it may be the most difficult stretch any top team faces this season. The Wildcats are about to play 4 consecutive games against teams in the top 22 per KenPom, with no breathers at all. No other top 20 team has faced a consecutive stretch of teams this highly rated, and it’s going to be difficult to get through this gauntlet without suffering a loss.
First up is a rematch against the Tennessee Volunteers. Kentucky throttled their rivals by 28 in Lexington, but a rematch in Knoxville is no mere formality. In both 2017 and 2019 UK racked up large wins against the Vols at home only to suffer a defeat on the road. With the status of Toppin and Washington up in the air, this looks like a significant obstacle. In this edition of Hoops Insight, I try to identify what’s changed about Tennessee since the first matchup and how Kentucky might match up with the Vols this time.
More balanced Volunteers
Prior to the first matchup, Tennessee was ranked 2nd in defensive efficiency per KenPom and 58th in offensive efficiency. But since that game Tennessee has been better on offense and worse on defense. Now the Volunteers are 6th in defense and 30th in offense, with some clear trends on either side of the ball over the 8 games since being blown out by UK.
On defense, Tennessee has slipped a bit in their biggest strength: forcing turnovers. They still rank 6th for the full season, but over the past 8 games they’ve been forcing turnovers at something like the 25th-highest rate in the country. That’s still very good, but a little below their prior excellence. All 3 of their main guards (Vescovi, Chandler, Zeigler) are extremely effective at generating steals, although in the last 8 games Vescovi’s thievery has fallen off considerably. Chandler and Zeigler are still in the top 25 in steal rate, with Vescovi and wing Josiah Jordan-James a bit behind.
Tennessee has also slipped a bit in defending the rim, specifically in transition. Coming into the prior UK matchup opponents were hitting 56% of shots at the rim in transition due to tremendous Volunteer defense, but since the UK loss Tennessee allows opponents to hit 74% at the rim in transition. Tennessee doesn’t have a lot of shotblocking length, and I (rightly) felt UK would be able to score at the rim on them last game. That has become a more consistent issue that Kentucky can take advantage of by pushing the tempo, as the Wildcats have done with success this season.
Tennessee’s defense has been very good the last few games on the defensive glass, limiting opponents to a 24% offensive rebound rate. Opponents are also hitting just 32% on threes against the Vols. However, Tennessee gives up a ton of threes; 44% of opponent shots have come from there in the last 8 games, a bottom 25 rate. Opponents who try to force turnovers on UK have had very little success this season, and Tennessee’s aggressive defense will likely leave some shooters open.
On offense, Tennessee’s recent rise has been powered by 1 key factor: 3 point shooting. The Vols have been on fire from deep over the last 8 games, hitting 42% or better from three in 4 of 8 contests and 38% as a team. Vescovi operates almost excsluviely as an outside shooters, taking 78% of his shots there over the last 8 games and hitting 47%. Zeigler is at 48% over that same stretch, and even Jordan-James is hitting at a 36% clip. Only Kennedy Chandler (6 of 26) is struggling to hit from deep lately.
Kentucky has been defending the three point line well lately, as none of their last 3 opponents have surpassed 25% from three. However, Tennessee was able to hit 47% in the first matchup. It didn’t really matter because the Vols couldn’t defend or keep from turning the ball over, but assuming they improve in those areas their 3 point shooting could be a major factor.
Vols on the upswing, but is it a mirage?
Tennessee seems to have bounced back from that UK loss, going 7-1 since with the lone loss by 1 point at Texas. Per BartTorvik.com, the Vols were rated 18th prior to that game but rate as the 10th best team in the nation since that loss. However, that improvement may not be as sustainable as you’d think.
One of the tools I built into my stats engine is the ability to examine specific segments of a game using a slider to specify which time range to include or exclude. In the last 8 games I noticed that Tennessee’s rate of drawing free throws is much higher than their season average, which can be influenced by trailing teams fouling late in games. Tennessee has racked up some close wins, so I decided to exclude action in the last 2 minutes of their last 8 games and see how their rating was changed. My suspicion was that their rating was inflated by extending their lead late in games due to strong foul shooting, and that proved to be correct. Tennessee has hit 27 of 28 free throws in the final 2 minutes of their last 8 games. That’s quite an improvement for a team that ranks 215th for the season in FT%. Chandler and Vescovi are both under 73% for the season, but are a perfect 14 for 14 in that stretch. It’s a great skill to be able to hit clutch free throws, but it really only pays off if you’ve got a narrow lead and the other team is forced to foul. If Kentucky is in a position where they need to foul, Tennessee is going to be tough to catch, but the Vols have to get there first.
Kentucky isn’t at their best, but can Tennessee capitalize?
Since the blowout over Tennessee, Kentucky has had a few games where they played below their lofty standard. Injuries have kept the Cats without their full preferred 8 man rotation in 4 of the past 8 games, but even when healthy UK has fallen into some troubling patterns. They have struggled on the offensive glass as teams have focused on keeping Oscar Tshiebwe from snagging as many rebounds, and UK has fallen into some troubling patterns of settling for midrange shots. UK takes over 1/3 of their shots from midrange but is hitting just 34% over the last 8 games, with even the previously solid Keion Brooks (38%) and Oscar Tshiebwe (30%) well below their usual accuracy there. UK is also hitting just 34% from three, with the marksmanship of Grady (43%) and Mintz (42%) undone by the wayward shooting of TyTy Washington (10%). However, these trends may not cause as much trouble as you’d think against Tennessee.
First, Tennessee has been very good at defensive rebounding lately, but they’ve done most of their damage against poor rebounding teams. They’ve played 3 teams since the UK loss who rank in the top 30 in offensive rebound rate (Miss St, Texas A&M, South Carolina); those three combined to collect 31% of their own misses against the Vols, while other Tennessee opponents grabbed just 20%. Tennessee allowed UK a 38% offensive rebound rate in non-garbage time in the first matchup, so UK should be able to corral enough of their own misses to make an impact.
Second, while Tennessee is very good at forcing turnovers they aren’t very good at forcing teams into bad shots. Teams take many more shots at the rim or from three than from midrange against the Vols, and are especially able to bomb away from three. UK was able to create lots of good looks from three the last time against Tennessee, even with just two shooters on the floor. When Washington and Grady played without Mintz, 7 of UK’s 19 shots were threes by the two shooters and they hit 5 of them. Tennessee may try to adjust and stick to shooters more, but that will take them away from their turnover creation.
Over and over this season Kentucky has taken on teams who force a lot of turnovers without having it be a major factor. I don’t expect this game to be vastly different from that. If TyTy Washington can’t play then UK will miss his steady ballhandling, but the Cats have survived in stretches without him already. I expect Tennessee to do some damage from deep and to have some adjustments to try to slown down Kentucky’s offense. Kentucky should be able to score inside against Tennessee, and will get open looks from three. I think the biggest key is whether Kentucky can push the pace in transition and exploit Tennessee’s trouble guarding the rim there. If they can, I think they pull out the win against the Vols. It will likely be a much tighter game than the first one and a good preparation for what awaits Kentucky in the postseason.