In the world of college basketball, the University of Kentucky tries to do everything bigger and better than anyone else. Last season the Wildcats made a major splash by landing several heralded transfers. They snagged the leading assist man in the SEC in Sahvir Wheeler, a multi-time All A-10 player in Kellan Grady, a 3 point sniper and starter for the #1 seed Iowa Hawkeyes (CJ Fredrick), and a midseason transfer of a former top recruit and promising bigman in Oscar Tshiebwe. Little did anyone know that Wheeler would again lead the SEC in assists, Grady would be the main shooting threat, and Tshiebwe would become the unanmious player of the year. How do you follow up that sort of splash? The answer, as it always is with John Calipari, is simple: do it again.
The brave new frontier of the transfer portal contains all manner of peculiar wonders, from mid-major standouts looking for bigger stages to once-heralded recruits looking for fresh starts and even an assortment of proven high-level difference-makers. Even for a blueblood program like Kentucky, it’s not as simple as making a shopping list and ordering one of each of your favorite archetypes. There is a lot of uncertainty over how players will handle a step up in competition, or if they’ll be able to make the same impact when they aren’t the biggest start on their team. In this edition of Hoops Insight, I take a look at 6 prominent transfer targets mentioned with Kentucky and give my assessment of each of them based on stats analysis and some film study.
Possibly two key roster needs
Kentucky still isn’t sure who all will be returning next season, but based on recent buzz the following it seems likely that Shaedon Sharpe turns pro and Keion Brooks departs as a pro or transfer. Oscar Tshiebwe’s status seems up in the air. UK should have Wheeler, Wallace, and Fredrick in the backcourt, Livingston on the wing, and Toppin, Collins, and Ware up front. Based on that, I’d say Kentucky’s main needs are:
A backcourt/wing scorer with size who can create off the dribble, preferably with some outside shooting
A reliable scoring big man/rebounder (if Tshiebwe doesn’t return)
If UK wants to contend for an SEC title and potential Final Four, they will absolutely need to fill these roles. UK could use some additional cover at backup point guard and some additional shooting at the power forward position, but given the number of players already on the roster at those positions I think those are lower priorities.
So, what names in the portal could fit?
Options on the wing
Based on the names in the portal and Kentucky’s needs, I think the top two options on the wing are Terrence Shannon and Antonio Reeves.
Antonio Reeves
Reeves has good size at roughly 6’5”, and would have 2 seasons of eligiblity remaining (assuming he takes advantage of the COVID year). He played the last 3 years at Illinois State, so he’ll be making a leap up in competition at Kentucky. He hit 38.5% from three last season on a lot of volume and has been an ~80% free throw shooter, so he seems likely to be a dangerous outside shooter. He hit nearly 50% on midrange twos (37-80) and on runners/floaters (43-88), so he’s got a pretty efficient scoring game from the midrange. He wasn’t a great finisher at the rim (just under 60%) and didn’t get there frequently, which is the main knock against him on offense. However, Illinois State didn’t offer great spacing as they didn’t shoot many threes. Reeves hasn’t been much of a playmaker, but also hasn’t been very turnover-prone.
The biggest thing that intrigues me about Reeves is that he has improved his offensive game considerably over his three years in college. His assist rate, FG% at the rim, FT%, and 3pt FG% have all risen during his career. As a freshman and sophomore he was largely inefficient, but he made a leap as a junior to become a comprehensive offensive threat. I can’t know for sure, but this seems like a sign that he is willing to put in the work to improve.
Additionally, Reeves’ game seems tailor-made for Kentucky’s offensive style. John Calipari likes to let guards create their own shots, and Reeves has grown into doing that. He’s a very capable shooter off the dribble from midrange, in the style of Tyty Washington. If a mid-major player was going to come to Kentucky and be a major scoring threat, Reeves has the game to do it.
The biggest area of concern is that Reeves may be a poor defender. He has had low steal rates and grades out poorly by Synergy despite likely being a better athlete than most players at his level. However, I have very little concern about John Calipari getting players to buy in on defense. I think Antonio Reeves has the game to be what Kentucky needs on the wing next season.
Terrence Shannon
Kentucky has been linked with Shannon, a 6’6” wing from Texas Tech with 2 years of eligiblity. Shannon has hit 37%+ from 3 the last two years on a solid volume of attempts, and he’s been a very good finisher at the rim (68%). Shannong also draws free throws and hits them at ~80%. He also has a decent assist rate and shows some skill as a secondary playmaker. He also profiles as an impactful defender as a lengthy, athletic wing, and Synergy grades him in the 80th percentile or better defending both spot-ups and pick and roll.
So, an athletic wing who can shoot, finish at the rim, and defend…why would I ever prefer Reeves to Shannon? My biggest issue with Shannon is that his creation off the dribble seems limited. Watching film, he looks herky-jerky on his drives and uses his length to finish while contorted awkwardly. He doesn’t blow by defenders, but rather uses length and odd angles to get shots off. He is a poor shooter off the dribble (14-50 last season) and on runners (2-14), meaning that he struggles when he doesn’t get to the rim. I don’t see him as the kind of player Calipari can get the ball to and trust to create. Shannon is a great finisher in transition and finished well when Texas Tech had the floor spaced, but in a Kentucky offense with a consistent post-up presence I worry that his game would not be optimized. I think he’d face some of the same issues as BJ Boston, who would drive into traffic and had trouble finishing. I see Shannon as very much a complimentary piece next to an on-ball creator, or as a transition weapon.
A bevy of post options
If Oscar Tshiebwe doesn’t return to Kentucky next season, UK will have a huge hole to fill. None of UK’s other returnees have shown the same type of offensive game in the post or rebounding mastery as Tshiebwe. Given that he was the unanimous player of the year, that’s not a surprise, but Kentucky would do well to go into next season with a low-post threat and stud rebounder. Here are a few good options:
Johni Broome
Broome had a big season at Morehead State as their 6’10” man in the middle. He has 3 years of eligibility remaining, so UK might not have to reload again next year if they land him. He ranked in the top 50 in offensive rebound rate and defensive rebound rate (just like Tshiebwe). He has very little offensive game away from the paint (9-31 on anything else), but hit a solid 56% of his twos last season. He doesn’t bring much playmaking, and doesn’t draw many free throws, which is a bit of a concern given his size advantage over mid-major opponents. He was a tremendous shot-blocker last season, ranking 7th in block rate and putting up 15 games of 5 or more blocks. However, only two of those games were against teams in the top 100 per KenPom (Murray State, Belmont), so there’s some question as to whether he can do anything similar against quality competition.
That’s my main question with Broome: can he hold up against SEC competition? Per BartTorvik.com, Broome’s stats feel off considerably against top-100 and top-50 level competition. If UK is landing a 56% shooter who blocks a ton of shots and rebounds like a monster, that’s great. If they are getting a 51% shooter who is an OK shot blocker and rebounder, that’s not going to be good enough to replace Oscar. I am not sure that Broome is quite as good as his reputation would suggest.
Norchad Omier
I’ll be honest; I hadn’t heard of this guy until he hit the transfer portal. Omier played for Arkansas State (who was not good) and has 3 seasons remaining. He is clearly way too good of an athlete for that level of competition. He is a tremendous finisher at the rim (70%+ FG%) but offers almost nothing away from the rim. He was a dominant rebounder even at 6’7”, ranking 4th in offensive rebound rate and 11th in defensive rebound rate.
Looking at his stats, I noticed he didn’t do much in the games he played against quality teams (Illinois, Texas Tech, Morehead State). I watched film of him against Texas Tech, and was a bit disappointed by what I saw. He’s clearly a great athlete, but is more of a cutter/dive man who scores off of quick bursts. His footwork in the post was lacking, as he had multiple turnovers. He also is a poor passer out of the post.
I would love to see Omier as a pick and roll weapon and transition threat on a team with several strong guards. I think Baylor or Villanova would be great fits for him. I just don’t see him as a fit for what Kentucky needs. He’s probably most similar to Isaiah Jackson, without quite the same shotblocking skill. On a UK team without an alpha scoring guard, I would rather find a more polished scoring threat at center,
Kenneth Lofton
Lofton may be my favorite college basketball player. He’s 6’7”, 275 pounds, and wears a t-shirt under his jersey. He is someone’s large adult son, and looks like he should be playing intramural ball. But he’s also a tremendous low-post threat and very skilled big.
He has 3 years remaining, and is exploring the draft as well as a return to Louisiana Tech in addition to entering the portal. Despite his lack of height and burst, he is a good finisher at the rim (63%). He’s not a good FT shooter (65%) and not an outside shooter. He is a voracious rebounder, ranking 15th in oreb rate and 35th in dreb rate. He does offer some playmaking from the post, assisting on 24% of opponent baskets; that would be a decent rate for a point guard. He could bring a new dimension to Kentucky’s offense with his passing from the post, similar to how PJ Washington served as a passing and scoring threat as a sophomore.
There are some real issues. It’s obvious he is not in good shape, and this limits him; he only played more than 30 minutes 6 times last season despite being by far the best player on his team. He also is a defensive liability, as he can’t move his feet well in pick and roll coverage and commits fouls due to his lack of conditioning.
HOWEVER….this guy can play ball. He played on the US U-19 team last summer and was every bit as good as Chet Holmgren or Jaden Ivey, who will both be top-5 picks in the NBA Draft. Of the three big man portal targets, Lofton is the only one who I’m confident can produce as a scorer and rebounder in the SEC. My main concern is whether Kentucky can get creative on offense to get the most out of him; I just don’t think they can. Kentucky might only get 25 minutes per game out of him, and they sure won’t be able to switch everything, but if they have to replace Oscar Tshiebwe then I’d put Lofton #1 on my list.
A wild card upgrade
In my initial draft of this article, I was going to write about Nijel Pack from Kansas State. He’s a great shooter who made All Big 12, but honestly I don’t think Kentucky needs a 6’0” shooting guard. It seems like Pack is looking elsewhere, and I think that’s fine for him and Kentucky, because someone entered the portal on Monday who I think is a PERFECT fit for the Wildcats.
Kendric Davis
Davis is a 6’0” PG who played the last 3 years at SMU after transferring from TCU. He only has 1 year remaining as a grad transfer, but made the AAC all conference team for a good SMU team. Kentucky doesn’t have a need at point guard with Sahvir Wheeler returning, but I think Davis is too good to let him get away.
Davis averaged 19+ ppg the last 2 seasons at SMU and did so efficiently, hitting 37%+ from three and 60%+ at the rim. He even hit 45%+ from midrange last season at SMU, so he can operate as the kind of off-dribble scoring threat UK prefers. He’s not just a scorer, however. As a junior he led the nation in assist rate, and posted an assist-turnover rate of better than 2:1 during his 3 years at SMU. He also hit 87% from the free throw line and drew free throws at a high rate. He’s the best player in the portal so far, and is the most accomplished and proven player to have entered in the past 2 years.
The only knock I’ve seen on his game is a lack of defensive ability. I watched some film and did notice that he usually didn’t take the toughest perimeter threat. He did post solid steal rates the last 2 years, and Synergy grades him favorably, but I can believe that he hasn’t been very effective on that end. However, John Calipari tends to get his players to at least work on defense, so I’m not terirbly concerned there. If Kentucky can add him to the roster, it’s worth it, and they can figure out Wheeler’s role from there.
Obviously UK’s best roster option next year is Oscar Tshiebwe. If he returns, Kentucky doesn’t need to worry about anything in the frontcourt and they can focus on adding a key backcourt scorer/creator. My preference would be 1) Kendric Davis, 2) Antonio Reeves, and 3) Terrence Shannon. I think UK would be in great shape with either Davis or Reeves, and if they only add Shannon then the halfcourt offense will have similar late-clock issues as they had this season.
If UK doesn’t retain Tshiebwe, I think the need for Davis increases as a primary scorer. My preference to replace Oscar would be 1) Kenneth Lofton, 2) Johni Broome, and 3) Norchad Omier. I have concerns that Broome and Omier may not translate to the higher competition level, whereas Lofton has proven it. Seeing Calipari try to construct an offense and defense around a unique player like Lofton would be very interesting and likely frustrating, and I’m absolutely here for it.