Can Kentucky's playmaking continue to unlock their shooters? Plus, thoughts on the Spartans
How the offense can stay humming, plus what will define the Champions Classic
As strange as it may seem now, there was once a time when John Calipari-coached teams didn’t make much use of the three pointer. I know, that sounds ridiculous! Here they sit now hitting 51% of their threes, getting a larger portion of their points from deep than their opponents, with their leading scorers being threats from the outside.
As strange as it sounds, Kentucky’s offense (and specifically their outside shooting) might have benefitted from the shorter rotation due to missing personnel over the first week. That isn’t to say that the team or offense is better without Oscar Tshiebwe, but with no established scoring threats among their bigs there was a need for someone to step forward to carry that load.
At some point over the next week or so Kentucky will likely have their full compliment of scholarship players healthy and available. At that point, we’ll see how all of the pieces end up fitting together. In particular, two of the players who are being worked back into the rotation will likely have a clear impact on Kentucky’s three point attack: Sahvir Wheeler and Oscar Tshiebwe. While some portions of the fanbase likely believe that the non-shooting Wheeler will hurt the 3 point attack and the post warrior Tshiebwe will open up space to further free up shooters, I’m not quite convinced that’s the way it will work out. I’ll explain my thoughts, and identify some things to watch in the Champions Classic against Michigan State.
An overlooked impact of Sahvir Wheeler
I have a theory about how a lot of casual fans evaluate basketball players, specifically guards. I think the primary evaluation consists of “Does this player do good stuff for one on one games?”. Players who have clear physical advantages, create their own shots off the dribble, and score in overpowering ways at the rim tend to be thought of as good offensive players. Sahvir Wheeler does not do these things and is frequently, and mistakenly, maligned on Twitter.
Sahvir Wheeler is small, basically cannot shoot off the dribble, and makes turnovers that look like he’s overmatched. None of those sound like good things, but none of them are really directly related to his effectiveness. Yes, Wheeler is small, but that does not keep him from scoring at the rim surrounded by bigger players. Instead, he hits about 64% of his shots at the rim, the second-highest rate for any UK PG under Calipari. He does so with more guile than explosiveness, but it still works. He can’t shoot off the dribble, so he takes fewer midrange shots than any UK starting PG except Ashton Hagans. His turnovers look sloppy, but Wheeler also had the best assist-turnover ratio for any UK PG not named Tyler Ulis. Wheeler does an excellent job of mitigating his negatives and focusing on his positives. The biggest positive of all is that he is quite good at feeding three point shooters.
Last season’s sniper for UK was Kellan Grady. Excluding the games where Wheeler missed, Grady shot 46% from three when Wheeler was in the game vs 35% when Wheeler was on the bench. Wheeler is quick enough with his dribble to beat his man frequently and force help, then whip the ball out to shooters on the perimeter. Against Duquesne, Kentucky made 5 of 10 three when Wheeler was in the game; Wheeler assisted on all 5.
Wheeler has made a habit out of assisting on threes at a high rate. Last season he assisted on 72 made three-pointers, the third highest total for any UK PG under Calipari behind only Tyler Ulis (99, 2016) and Marquis Teague (86, 2012). Ulis and Teague both benefitted from playing more minutes than Wheeler, however, and for UK teams that made more three overall. UK hit 144 threes in Wheeler’s minutes, meaning he assisted on 50% of UK’s made threes when he played. Ulis (46%, 99/216) and Teague (46%, 86/185) both assisted on a lower proportion of made threes, meaning other players shared more of the playmaking burden by creating their own threes or creating threes for others.
Quite simply, Sahvir Wheeler is depended on to create threes for his teammates more than any other point guard has at Kentucky, and he has delivered.
Post play, or threes, but maybe not both?
Conventional basketball wisdom holds that having a star big man helps three-point shooters but drawing more of the defense to the interior, leading to more open shots. The problem with that is it assumes that the big man is going to be a good enough passer to redirect the ball to open perimeter shooters in rhythm. That’s not as common of a skill as it seems. This is especially an issue for Kentucky because, among his peers, Oscar Tshiebwe stands out as a lackluster passer.
Last season Oscar Tshiebwe recorded only 30 total assists, far below the totals of other standout big men. Drew Timme had 77 assists, Hunter Dickinson had 65, Trayce Jackson-Davis had 59 and Armando Bacot had 52. Looking at a variety of related stats, you see that Tshiebwe lags far behind other prominent big men in playmaking:
This doesn’t mean Tshiebwe is hurting the offense. He scored more effectively than any other UK player last season, even the uber-efficient Grady. However, it does mean that UK’s offense usually has to choose between post scoring or three point shooting; the two may not be all that complementary if Tshiebwe doesn’t improve as a post passer. Last season threes accounted for 27% of UK’s shots when Oscar was in the game, but 32% when he sat. Antonio Reeves and CJ Fredrcik have largely contributed this season through their 3 point shooting, but they will need to find other ways to contribute if their offensive roles are diminished as the focus shifts to Oscar Tshiebwe…unless Oscar can find ways to involve his teammates a bit more.
The Spartans are down but still tough
It’s been a few years since Michigan State was MICHIGAN STATE. They finished the last 2 seasons outside the top 40 in KenPom rankings, and sit at 26th currently in this young season. Last season the Spartans went 1-7 against teams who finished in the top 20 of KenPom’s rankings. Tom Izzo doesn’t have a ton of high-level talent, but there are some marking of a typical Izzo team that may come into play Tuesday.
First, the Spartans are going to move the ball around to look for good shots. They’ve ranked in the top 20 in assist rate (assists per field goal made) every year since 2013. If any Wildcat defenders get out of position or struggle guarding complex actions, you can bet the Spartans will identify that and look to exploit it. This does lead to higher turnovers for the Spartans, however, as more passes and longer possessions give the defense an opportunity to steal one. Kentucky will need to strike a balance between jumping passing lanes and playing disciplined defense.
Another hallmark of Tom Izzo’s teams is that they are very strong defensively in transition. They are excellent at preventing shot attempts in transition; last season only 10% of their opponent possessions were coded as “transition” per Synergy, 16th lowest in the country. Even when opponent do get a steal, they don’t turn that into a transition shot as often as they would against an average opponent. 1/3 of the steals opponents got against the Spartans were not able to be turned into a transition shot; Kentucky turned almost 75% of their steals into transition shots last season. One area the Spartans are a bit vulnerable in transition is fouling. Tough defense tends to lead to fouls and free throws, and the Spartans give up free throws on 17% of their defensive transition possessions. UK gave up free throws on under 13%, for comparison.
I’m interested to see how Kentucky’s younger players hold up on defense. Cason Wallace could be a threat to pick off some passes, but will Michigan State thwart him in transition? Can Ugonna Onyenso navigate pick and roll coverage without getting burned? Can Chris Livingston hold up as an undersized 4?
I do think Kentucky should be able to score on the Spartans. In past year Michigan State was a powerhouse defensively, but they’ve slipped a bit the past 2 years. They used to collect a lot of blocks and defend the interior well, but their roster doesn’t have the proven defensive big men this year. I don’t think the Gonzaga game was the most indicative given that it was played on an aircraft carrier and facing the sun for a good part of the first half, but a couple things stood out to me. First, Gonzaga’s big men were able to get to the rim against Michigan State. The Bulldogs took almost half of their shots at the rim in halfcourt offense, while Michigan State took <30% there. If Oscar Tshiebwe is able to go, he could rack up baskets in bursts against a vulnerable interior. The issues Michigan State had defending the rim are especially troubling given that the aircraft carrier games are notorious for poor outside shooting, so the Spartans should have packed the paint and been able to defend the rim better. The second thing that stood out is that Gonzaga had some terrible shooting luck in transition. The Bulldogs posted an effective Fg% of just 23% there per hoop-math.com, including just 2 of 8 at the rim. While Michigan State is good at defending in transition, nobody is THAT good. Michigan State got a little lucky in transition defense and nearly won the game because of it.
If Kentucky is aggressive attacking the rim, they’ll likely have some success against the Spartans. I’d expect Michigan State to have some offensive success, but I don’t think they can keep up with Kentucky’s attack. Even if there are some offensive hiccups integrating Oscar Tshiebwe back in alongside the outside shooting that’s powered the Cats, Kentucky just has too many ways they can find advantages. A great outcome for Kentucky probably includes some early turnovers as the Cats jump passing lanes, and a mix of easy transition baskets and drawing fouls on the Spartans there. Unless something really bizarre happens, Kentucky should cruise to a comfortable win.