Calipari tweaked some things...will it be enough?
UK looks for their best win of the season in Columbia, MO
I hope everyone had a nice holiday break, enjoyed some time off work with family and friends, and is ready for college basketball to start back up. I certainly am, if only so I have actual game results to analyze. I honestly don’t know what to make of this Kentucky season so far or what to expect for the rest of the season.
I got called out a bit last week on Twitter after the Florida A&M game for being too negative about Kentucky lately, and that criticism of me was probably justified. I had pretty high expectations for the Kentucky team this season, but so far they’ve looked completely unconvincing against any quality teams. Kentucky is 2-3 in Quad 2 or better games, and according to Bart Torvik’s website their performance puts them just 36th among all teams who have played 5 such games. “Wins Above Bubble” is a neat stat that evaluates how much better or worse a team has done against their schedule than a typical NCAA Tournament bubble team would do; Kentucky is 58th in that metric with a 0.0 rating (meaning they have played exactly as a bubble team would).
With John Calipari promising some “tweaks” to help address the flagging halfcourt offense, I was interested in the process of the Florida A&M game, if not so much the result. What exactly would Kentucky tweak? Would the tweaks be things that might work against better teams, too? Even adjusting for opponents, Kentucky has been massively more effective this season against the back of their schedule and struggled to an alarming degree against teams with athleticism and coaching to execute more effective defensive schemes.
Upon rewatch, there were some nice wrinkles in the Florida A&M game that Kentucky needs to continue using. Until proven otherwise, I remain dubious about Kentucky’s ability to adapt situationally to better teams on offense. There are some kernels of hope, and now there’s a meaingful test. The Missouri Tigers have had an interesting first season under Dennis Gates, with every game on their schedule decided by either 21+ points or 7 or fewer points…nothing in between. Among the confounding results are a 6 point win over middling Southern Indiana and 7 points over lousy Southeast Missouri State, but also a 22 point win over Illinois.
Based purely on KenPom rating, Missouri (#43) would be the highest rated win for Kentucky yet this season. Throw in the fact that this is on the road, and it’s a chance for a legitimate Quad 1 victory. This one is either going to be an exclamatory victory announcing Kentucky’s intentions to win meaningful games or another head-scratcher where a quality opponent largely had their way while the Wildcats settle into bubble-hood. The key factors that should make the difference are:
Creative wrinkles on offense to make things easier for key personnel
Use transition more than grind-it-out offense
Defending an unconventional style of offense
I don’t think Kentucky has done any of those 3 things well on a consistent basis this season, but they’ll need to against Missouri. After the break, I’ll explain.
For premium subscribers, I identify key tweaks and propose a couple more small ones, plus I explain why Missouri has had an unusual season…
I don’t think John Calipari imagined in March 2014 that he would forever be linked to the word “tweak”. I also don’t think he’d imagine that “twerking” would become such a popular thing, and smoeone searching for GIFs about “tweaks” would get so many results about “twerks”. I’m getting off-topic, however.
Kentucky’s tweaks against Florida A&M largely took two forms, one of which I think is much more meaningful than the other:
Different lineups
Different actions on offense
#1, to me, was a bit of much ado about nothing. As I feared in my pregame write-up, John Calipari still oddly refuses to play Chris Livingston at power forward despite talking about it multiple times this season. Livingston started at small forward and Lance Ware at power forward next to Oscar Tshiebwe; this grouping was successful against UCLA (albeit for a ood chunk without Jaime Jaquez in the game) and opened the A&M game on a torrid stretch. Calipari played a number of new combinations, including a Tshiebwe/Onyenso frontcourt, Reeves & Fredrick together for the first extended time since Gonzaga, and closed the game with a Wallace/Reeves/Fredrick perimeter trio that did not play a single possession together against Michigan, UCLA, or Yale.
Calipari is probably never going to play any significant time with small-ball lineups, and this game made that clear. The fact that he went the other way and tried a ludicrous Tshiebwe/Onyenso pairing for the first time all season, and brought back the disastrous Collins/Ware frontcourt that hadn’t been seen for 3 weeks, felt like a bit of a message to his critics. Calipari is going to win his way, and that’s final.
That part aside, I do think two lineup changes will become more common. Lance Ware has been more effective than Jacob Toppin at the 4, even though Ware is probably a worse shooter. Ware offers no spacing, but he contributes in other ways Toppin doesn’t. He moves the ball quickly and is a willing & effective screener, which makes offense a bit easier for Kentucky’s guards. Because Ware almost never shoots, his lack of shooting isn’t as directly damaging to Kentucky. I think Ware gets more PF minutes than Toppin until Toppin can make similar contributions. Kentucky has been winning Ware’s minutes because they’ve been rebounding well (makes sense) and because they are forcing turnover at an astronomical rate (makes less sense). Ware was very active against A&M, but I’m not sure how sustainable a 25%+ opponent turnover rate is just by playing Lance Ware more often. Kentucky had no track record this season of forcing turnovers at a high rate with Ware in until the UCLA game; I’m interested to see how they hold up if opponents are holding onto the ball. Florida A&M did hit all 5 of their shots at the rim against the Ware/Tshiebwe duo and posted a 67% effective FG%; UK has got to be able to defend better with big lineups.
Second, I think Cason Wallace will take more of the halfcourt offensive load, especially in pick and roll. Wallace is a good shooter off the dribble who punishes defenders for going under on screens, and Wheeler is not that. Wheeler has his strengths (which I’ll address in a bit) but running pick and roll is not one right now. Interestingly enough, Cason Wallace’s 3 attempts from 3 point range out of pick and roll against Florida A&M were the only ones he’s taken in that action all year. That gets to the tweaks Calipari made around using different action. Now that’s the interesting part, and where there’s room to explore further!
Several smart wrinkles
Kentucky added a number of clever actions in halfcourt offense in this game that would have been a big help in most of their losses. As I mentioned above, UK finally allowed pick and roll ballhandlers to take threes when opponents went under the screen. Wheeler took 2 such shots this season, and Wallace took 3 against A&M, and that’s it. I’d expect that to be a significant weapon with Cason Wallace which should draw more attention and free up other players.
There was also a nice backscreen about 5 minutes in the game as Wheeler ran a pick and roll, and Kentucky back-screened his man after going under; it freed Wheeler up for a lefty layup:
I also noticed a clever handoff from Lance Ware to Antonio Reeves that created an open jumper in the paint for him. This is the kind of action Kentucky needs to run with players who are non-shooters, so the defense pays for ignoring them. Ware’s man is completely out of position to help on Reeves here. If UK is able to run this a bit farther out, it could result in open threes for Reeves, Fredrick, or Wallace.
One of the most impactful things Kentucky did in the game was to almost completely get away from Oscar Tshiebwe post-ups as an offensive hub. Kentucky has 2 possessions charted by Synergy as post-ups (with a shot, turnover, or foul drawn), the fewest all season. Tshiebwe had just 1 of those, his fewest all season. Kentucky used him as a screener (pretty good), a spot-up threat (not so good), and an offensive rebounder (always good). When Oscar was in the post and a UK player started to drive, there was a subtle thing he did to help out tremendously: he would seal his man and clear the driving lane. I have been endlessly frustrated this season at the sight of UK ballhandlers driving into crowded lanes, but in this game Oscar actually helped clear things:
This sort of thing is how Oscar can help make things easier for his teammates and bolster Kentucky’s halfcourt offense.
There are a couple things I’d add that UK could do in the same vein:
Set higher screens for Sahvir Wheeler to give him more room to navigate. If his defender is going to drop, give Wheeler space to evade him and get to the basket. I’d set these as far out as midcourt even. Philadelphia does the same thing for James Harden to give him room to attack.
Look for quick Tshiebwe post-ups in transition to reduce the threat of help defenders. Tshiebwe does not handle double teams well in the post, and with either Ware or Toppin at PF there’s always going to be at least one help defender available. Pushing the pace with Wheeler and looking for quick post-ups can negative this and keep Tshiebwe involved as a post scorer.
Have non-shooters (Ware & Toppin) crash the offensive glass. PJ Tucker did the well for the Heat last season, as his defender would leave him and Tucker would sneak in for offensive rebounds. This is especially helpful if Tshiebwe is shooting and therefore less likely to get the offensive rebound himself.
I think all of these wrinkles are going to be very useful against the next opponent, the Missouri Tigers, who are VERY active on defense…but maybe not super good on that end?
Chaos, personified
As I noted above, Missouri has basically been in either blowouts or very tight games…nothing in between. They are #7 in KenPom’s offensive rating, but I think the more interesting thing is their #148 defense so I’ll start there.
Missouri basically does one thing on defense: force turnovers. They have the 4th highest rate of forcing opponent turnovers in the country, and are 1st in steals, but are no better than 119th in any other meaningful defensive statistic. Opponents have been able to hit threes and collect offensive rebounds at a high rate against the Tigers, which should work well for Kentucky. Missouri is aggressive at pressuring ballhandlers, jumping passing lanes, and doubling n pick and roll or post-ups…and that’s when the fun starts. If they don’t get a turnover, they usually give up a good shot. Most of the time this takes the form of a pass to an open shooter; 60% of opponent catch and shoot threes are unguarded against the Tigers. Most good defenses keep this around 50/50 or better. This should be good news for Fredrick and Reeves. Missouri’s defensive rebounding is hurt a bit by their frantic defense, as their bigs will switch out to the perimeter frequently and leave an overmatched wing to watch an opponent collect a board.
I watched the Kansas and Illinois games to see the extremes of Missouri performances, and noticed how different offensive styles worked. Kansas had a lot of off-ball movement to occupy the defense and open multiple passing lanes, and burned the Tigers on backcuts and catch and shoot looks. The Jayhawks frequently brought post players up to the free throw line as a release valve to help move the ball; Lance Ware could be useful in this way. Kansas also pushed the pace in transition, where Missouri offers little resistance; Sahvir Wheeler could be a catalyst to ignite this UK attack. Illinois, on the other hand, did many of the things that have plagued Kentucky in poor performances. There was little off-ball movement, so Tiger defenders off the ball were free to roam and pounce on passes. The Illini tried to grind the fast-paced Tigers down, and ended up with precious few easy baskets.
Missouri’s offense is the key to their team, and it will absolutely be a threat to Kentucky. First, Missouri likes to run AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE. If they get a steal, they are taking off; 80% of their steals results in a shot within 10 seconds. Kentucky, by comparison, gets a shot within 10 seconds of abut 60% of steals. Missouri also is very willing to push the pace after made baskets. Missuori is EXTREMELY dangerous in transition, as every rotation player on their team scores at a high level there at the rim or from three. Missouri’s transition offense is one of the best in multiple statistics:
28th in % of shots in transition (UK is 30th)
7th in effective FG% in transition (UK is 125th)
4th in FG% at the rim in transition (79%), 47th in 3pt FG% in transition (41%)
This will be a huge test for Kentucky, who allows the 10th lowest effective FG% in transition in D-1. Cason Wallace in particular is excellent at contesting shots on the fast break, but there is a chance he could get into foul trouble defending the aggressive Tigers.
Missouri’s halfcourt offense is also very efficient, ranking 22nd in effective FG%. Their biggest strength is finishing at the rim, as they hit almost 70% of shots there. They rarely post-up, but instead will space the floor and run pick-and-roll or handoffs to open up cuts to the basket or spot-up threes. Their 5 most common three point shooters in halfcourt all hit 35% or more from deep, and include their 6’8” big Kobe Brown and 6’6” PF Noah Carter. Their guards and wings will look to back-cut you to death, so Kentucky’s defenders will need to be engaged.
I have some concerns about UK’s halfcourt defense against Missouri. Although UK has been excellent on defense, some of their lineup tweaks may make things challenging in this game. Yale scored 8 points off 5 cuts (per Synergy), and may be the most similar offense to Missouri’s. Oscar Tshiebwe may also get picked on in this game by having to defend in space. He does not move well on defense, and was exploited by Gonzaga and UCLA. Against Florida A&M, his stint at PF was disastrous as he was unable to contain more perimeter-focused players. Maybe Lance Ware can defend well enough in space, but lineups with him at the 5 have been disastrously bad rebounding this year. Between Tshiebwe and Ugonna Onyenso, someone is going to have to be able to hold up defensively in halfcourt.
If they do, I think Kentucky wins this game by double digits. UK needs to do a few things to win convincingly:
Get out in transition as much as possible
Contest Missouri in transition and force them into halfcourt offense
Play bigs who can be competent on defense and (most importantly) rebound
If UK loses this game, one of these three areas is likely going to be a very visible cause. This is a real test for the coaching staff, and they’ve passed many of these before. In recent years, however, these have become dicey. Missouri plays a distinctive style of offense and defense, and Kentucky has to be ready to counter it. If the Wildcats fall into traditional patterns of stagnant offense, or if their bigs look unprepared to step out and defend dribble handoffs, it’s going to be a step backwards right when that’s the last thing Big Blue Nation needs to see.