As has been expected for the past few days, Antonio Reeves is now officially going to be a Kentucky Wildcat next season. I wrote quite a bit about Reeves in my last article, and I remain very high on him. In fact, I’m maybe even a bit more bullish on him as I’ve spent some time digging into things.
Before I get into some of my thoughts, I have a trivia question. John Calipari has coached 2 players at UK during seasons where they were rated by Synergy as Excellent (85th percentile or above) in scoring out of both Isolation and as Pick and Roll Ballhandlers (minimum 10 possessions in each action). What two players met this criteria and in what seasons? Answer coming at the end of the article.
An excellent scorer off the dribble
Over his 3 years at Illinois State Reeves developed into an excellent scorer off the dribble. Last season he scored 20.1ppg with an effective FG% of 54.5% while using 28.6% of Redbird possessions. The only guards UK has had under Calipari that put up even close to that level of efficiency and activity are Malik Monk and Jamal Murray.
Reeves didn’t just compile stats against bad teams, either. Last season Illinois State played 4 top-100 teams in non conference (Murray State, Saint Louis, Missouri State, Wisconsin) and Reeves average 21.5ppg on 42% shooting from 2 and 48% from three. Against Wisconsin, Reeves repeatedly beat Badger defenders off the dribble and scored in the lane. He demonstrated a quick first step and a tight handle, and most importantly he didn’t make mistakes by driving into traffic. He was able to finish at the rim repeatedly after beating his man as well.
Last season Synergy rated Reeves as Excellent on both Isolation plays and as a Pick and Roll Ballhandler, meaning his points scored per possessions were in the 85th percentile or above on both. I believe his particular skills in creating offense in these sets are why he’s going to be such a great fit for UK, and why I’m bullish…but let me explain that by drawing parallels and contrasts to other recent Cats.
A rare type of shot creator
Last season, Kentucky was rated as Excellent on offense by Synergy (88th percentile overall). However, on shots taken in the final 4 seconds of the shot clock UK rated as merely Good (62nd percentile). The issue was that Kentucky’s guards were all below average in creating late in the shot clock. Kellan Grady was the highest rated (45th percentile), with TyTy Washington 37th percentile and both Sahvir Wheeler and Davion Mintz below the 20th percentile. I wrote about UK’s issues with their late game offense, which revolved around late shot clock possessions. Well, guess what Reeves is very good at?
Last season Antonio Reeves was rated as Excellent by Synergy at scoring in late clock situations, ranking in the 88th percentile nationally. The only Wildcat on last year’s team who was rated as Excellent in late clock situations was Oscar Tshiebwe, and obviously he’t not creating a lot of looks for himself. Now Kentucky will have two weapons who have proven they can score in late clock situations, which should make them much more dangerous with a lead late in ballgames.
The primary reason Reeves is such a good late clock scorer is that he is very good at the play types that make up a lot of late clock opportunities, Isolation and PnR Ballhandler. In fact, last season UK’s main weakness in halfcourt offense was that they ranked in the 41st percentile when the PnR Ballhandler tried to score. That’s Reeves’ strength, as he was in the 94th percentile. Simply put, the things he’s good at were weaknesses for UK last year and are important when UK tries to hold onto leads.
I’ve seen some concern expressed that Reeves might only be a spot-up threat similar to Kellan Grady, who was even more accomplished for a better mid-major team than Reeves. I don’t think comparing Reeves to Grady is quite right, however. At Davidson, Grady rated as Excellent on spot-ups but below that level in everything else; he was a bit above average as a ballhandler. At UK, he thrived by focusing on the spot-up role because that was where his skills fit best. Reeves rates much better as a creator off the dribble, and that should translate to UK reasonably well.
As I mentioned in the introduction, it’s very rare for UK to have a player who rates as Excellent on both Isolation and PnR Ballhandler plays. Granted, Reeves was doing so against lower competition, but his skill set is quite unique. Only two UK players have rated as Excellent in Iso and PnR Ballhandler actions: 2011-12 Doron Lamb, and 2019-20 Immanuel Quickley. Lamb was actually a terrific pick and roll guard who probably deserved more opportunities to run that, and Quickley was the top iso scorer (per possessions) in the country in 2019-20. 2019-20 is a good comp because that’s the last time Kentucky rated as Excellent in late clock situations, thanks largely to Quickley. If Reeves can contribute in that area, he’ll shore up a major weakness and make Kentucky very dangerous.