Another Kentucky disappointment
The Wildcats again look unprepared and lost against a quality opponent. What now?
I wasn’t expecting the Missouri game to be quite the disaster it was, to be honest. I would much rather be writing a preview for Kentucky vs Louisville, but I wanted to get my thoughts out on this game and the Wildcat program in general. There are clearly some major problems with this year’s Kentucky team. This is the 4th season in a row where there’s been some significant turmoil around John Calipari’s team, and that ultimately lays at his feet. Here’s what I mean:
2020: Preseason #2, rose to #1 after beating Mich St, lost to a terrible Evansville team and a bad Utah team. Ashton Hagans suspended (?) late in season. Lost huge lead to Tennessee, needed massive comeback to nip Florida in reg season finale. Finished #29 at KenPom.
2021: Preseason #10, go 9-16, ugh.
2022: Preseason #10, fall to #21 after ugly losses to Duke and Notre Dame before demolishing UNC, Tennessee, Kansas; lose to St. Peter’s in tourney.
2023: Preseason #4, going to drop out of top 25 after zero quality non conference wins.
Each season Kentucky has had at least 1 first round NBA draft pick, multiple McDonald’s All Americans, and transfers who were impact players at their prior stops. Yet every season Kentucky has disappointed and had as many bad losses as big wins.
When UK is led by star freshmen, disappointment is blamed on the uneveness of youth and fans pine for experienced players. When UK has experience, the problem is a lack of top-end talent and fans pine for elite recruits. The core fact is that John Calipari is not getting anything close to the most out of his players, and if Kentucky needs 3 or 4 NBA players in order to be a top-10 college team that’s a pretty damning indictment of the coaching. Kentucky was thoroughly dominated by a Missouri team that has maybe one NBA prospect and reloaded through the transfer portal under a new coach who implemented a system to take advantage of the talents of his players, and it was a stark contrast to a Kentucky team with plenty of talent but no direction. The general issues that have been common this season once again doomed Kentucky against Missouri:
Lack of preparation for opponent style of play: UK looked caught off guard on defense by fast breaks after made baskets, 3 point shooting by bigs, dribble handoffs and off-ball screens. On offense, UK was flummoxed by Missouri swarming pick and roll ballhandlers and the Tigers’ zone. All of this is stuff Missouri has done this season frequently.
No consistency in rotations: Antonio Reeves was benched for nearly the entire second half. He did fine on defense, and his only sin was missing 3 wide open threes. If players get benched for missing open shots, is it any surprise if they are more hesitant to shoot? Adou Thiero popped up to get 17 minutes despite multiple defensive lapses, and Ugonna Onyenso apparently is out of the rotation now.
Stagnant halfcourt offense: Kentucky got out in transition a lot against Missouri, but when they didn’t the offense turned into 4 players watching Oscar Tshiebwe post up. The ball movement and off-ball wrinkles from the Florida A&M game largely disappeared, in favor of the same clunky offense that doomed Illinois. Ball movement largely consisted of throwing it into Tshiebwe or out to Wallace.
Oscar Tshiebwe issues on defense: I don’t know if it’s due to injury or what, but Tshiebwe has been an absolute sieve. Sometimes it’s little things, like not having his hands up to contest vs spot up shooters. Sometimes it’s slow feet, like trying to trap a ballhandler and letting him get into the lane. Other times it’s communication, where his man sets a screen and Oscar offers no help or communication as the ballhandler gets free.
John Calipari can’t magically make his players hit open shots, or free throws, or make Oscar Tshiebwe’s feet quicker, but it doesn’t appear anything Calipari is doing is helping this team realize their potential. Teams get out to quick leads because UK isn’t prepared for basic stuff they do. Good shooters who miss threes get benched instead of being encouraged to take open shots. Lineups with multiple non-shooters are fielded, and those non-shooters aren’t coached to do useful things in halfcourt offense that could free up teammates. There’s no creativity at all in figuring out how to overcome individual player limitations on offense or defense. Players with unique exceptional skills (Onyenso shot blocking, Fredrick 3 point shooting) are marginalized instead of having schemes built around these skills.
Kentucky can look very good against opponents with inferior talent and no offensive or defensive identity, like North Florida, South Carolina State, and the like. But when an opponent is close to Kentucky in talent or has unique schemes on offense or defense (Bellarmine, Yale), Kentucky looks much worse for long stretches.
It doesn’t appear that John Calipari is willing and open to evaluate what is and isn’t working until things get really bad. 2 weeks ago he was dismissing concerns about halfcourt offense, despite issues being readily visible. To turn around this season requires someone who’s willing to be humble, admit mistakes, and show creative problem solving. Does any of that sound like anything John Calipari has ever done? His schematic approach to college basketball has not meaningfully changed in 13 years, so it’s not going to change now. He has never been creative with lineups, so that’s not going to change now. He’s almost never had players who performed better at Kentucky than in the NBA or at other schools, so he’s not going to start getting the most out of his players. In recent years, Calipari also seems unable to create an enviroment where players are inspired to play hard, stayed focused, and enjoy playing with their teammates. It seems like the only move in the playbook anymore is to try to recruit the best talent and hope that’s enough. That used to be the criticism that rankled Kentucky fans; now it’s their rallying cry that gives some glimmer of hope.