A tale of two possessions, and other thoughts on UK-Mich St
There were plenty of issues with the Cats performance, but I'm drawn to two specific offensive possessions
After last season, I wrote a deep dive into several of the problems which caused Kentucky’s frequent late game struggles. Tuesday night in the Champions Classic, the Wildcats again lost a lead, then a game. My initial reaction was “more of the same!”, but I like to reserve judgment until I go through the data and watch the film again.
I was a bit surprised at my conclusion, which is that this collapse is quite different from last season’s issues. There were some problems at the end of the game that are concerning but sure to be addressed, some problems that seem like random bad luck, and some problems that have been around for a bit and need to be recognized and addressed.
I’ll explain the issues that fall into each of these categories, and focus on two key offensive possessions that fall squarely into the latter category and represent a growth opportunity for Kentucky’s coaching staff.
Issues that are likely to be addressed
The two most impactful plays of the game were likely the defensive gaffes that led to Michigan State dunks to tie the game at the end of regulation and overtime. I’m not going to spend more than a few more words on them, because it’s clear that you shouldn’t give up dunks up two in the dying seconds. 100% chance the coaching staff focuses on those and 99% chance it gets cleaned up.
There are two other issues that fall into this category that I think are worth mentioing. First, Kentucky did a lousy job of rebounding in this game (outside of Oscar Tshiebwe). When Oscar was out of the game, Kentucky rebounded 50% of Michigan State misses and 13% of their own…that’s a laughably poor job. They were much better when Oscar was in the game (69% dreb and 40% oreb), but that was almost entirely due to Oscar himself. Tshiebwe collected 24% of UK’s misses and 41% of Michigan State’s when he was in the game. In the last 5 minutes plus overtime, Kentucky’s defensive rebounding slipped even further and they paid the price. The Spartans scored 8 points on 6 offensive rebounds during this final 15 minutes. There’s no reason for defensive rebounding to be so bad for Kentucky, and I’d expect the coaching staff will spend some time emphasizing the need for team rebounding.
Secondly, Cason Wallace seemed not quite ready for the stress of the endgame. He committed 3 turnovers during the final 5 minutes plus overtime, and seemed completely lost when trying to execute a buzzer beater at the end of regulation. He only took 1 shot during this time (although it was a three he made), missed 2 big free throws, and had zero assists. He’ll likely get more comfortable in these situations and make more positive contributions.
Issues that were bad luck
Last season Kentucky’s late game issues were largely due to a complete abandonment of transition in favor of repeated late-clock possessions that turned into midrange jumpers. There were some shades of that in this game, but the data indicates that late clock possessions didn’t exactly cost the Cats. While UK shot just 4 for 15 on their first FGA of possessions in the last 5 minutes plus both OTs (so, excluding offensive rebounds), all 4 makes were in the final 10 seconds of the shot clock. Kentucky went 0 for 7 when taking a shot in the first 20 seconds of a possession but 4 for 8 in the final 10 seconds. Only 2 of these misses were in the last 2 minutes as Kentucky watched the Spartans pull away. I find it tough to believe UK will have many more stretches this season where they go 0 for 7 in transition or running their halfcourt offense, so I’ll chalk this up as bad luck.
A second, and similar, issue is that Kentucky struggled to convert offensive rebounds into points late. The Wildcats got 4 offensive rebounds in this final 15 minute stretch, and went 1-4 on shots following these second chances for 2 points. Given that (as I mentioned above) Michigan State got 8 points off 6 offensive boards in this stretch, it seems more like some poor luck than anything else.
Issues that are more concerning
Given that the game went to 2 overtimes, if any of the issues I’ve mentioned above had not happened then UK likely would have won the game. As I went back and watched the game again, I was struck by 2 consecutive offensive possessions that seemed to have been completely mismanaged by the coaching staff. These possessions represented opportunities for Kentucky to extend a lead, but instead both came up empty due to incredibly poor offensive structure. The issue of poor offensive structure was massive last season late in games, and I think the coaching staff needs to spend some time rethinking how they are deploying the Wildcats’ talents.
The first possessions began with about 1:45 remaining in the game and Kentucky leading by 3 points. Per KenPom, Kentucky had about an 80% chance of winning here; a basket would have likely pushed that north of 90%. Kentucky ran a largely aimless series of passes around the perimeter, with no real threatening action at all. With a handful of seconds left on the shot clock, Sahvir Wheeler launched into an isolation play that resulted in a missed runner and a replay review to determine who the ball touched last on its way out of bounds. I have 3 main issues with this offensive set:
At no point did any Wildcat even consider an offensive attack until under 8 seconds on the shot clock. Tshiebwe wasn’t posting up, no player looked to drive, and there was no action designed to free up a player or misdirect. The Wildcats might as well have held the ball up top, which would have probably had less risk of a turnover than aimless passes.
Oscar Tshiebwe spent much of the possession about 18 feet from the basket, and his defender followed. This actually created some space that could have been used. When Wheeler sprung into attack mode, however, Tshiebwe had drifted back down into the lane, bringing his defender there…directly in Wheeler’s path.
This play design (if indeed it was designed) resulted in Wheeler driving right in an isolation. Wheeler is left-handed, and has throughout his college career been vastly better in isolation going to his left vs his right. I added up the Synergy stats, and if I did that correctly he has scored 49 points on 53 career isolations when driving left but just 23 points on 47 career isolations when driving right. A Spartan defender was sagging off Cason Wallace a bit to deny the lefty drive, (with Jacob Toppin in the left corner) and CJ Fredrick was on the right wing which created some space on Wheeler’s right. This should be flipped; Fredrick (or Reeves) should be on the left wing to occupy a defender, and two weaker shooters should be on the right side.
If Kentucky is going to run this type of late game set, they absolutely need to have some aspect of it that could result in an easy score earlier in the clock…if it doesn’t materialize, carry on as usual. But the crucial mistake is that Kentucky ran the set for one of their weaker isolation players in a way that favored his weaker hand, without the benefit of a cleared out lane.
Kentucky lost possession, gave up a basket on the other end, and then began their next possession with about a minute left and a 1 point lead. Per KenPom, the Wildcats still had about a 70% chance to win the game. What happened next was baffling to me, and likely to the coaching staff. With about 15 seconds left on the shot clock, Oscar Tshiebwe got the ball posting up about 15 feet from the basket. He faced up and shot a midrange jumper that missed. Kentucky didn’t get the rebound, and a chance to extend a tenuous lead with under a minute left was missed.
The shot selection here is…not good. Oscar hit 37% of jumpers from this distance last season, and his defender was right with him. He’s not been a good midrange shooter, but he’s been a very willing one at UK, which is a rough combination. My data has him taking 7 shots “away from the rim” against Michigan State, which admittedly is subjective according to how the play by play is recorded; he hit 1 of them. He may have been a bit tired (which could also contribute to his defensive lapse later), but he also wasn’t put in a position to do much more.
I watched this possessions and was struck by how every other UK player seemed to be active in a way that was at once unrelated to what Oscar was doing but also detrimental to it. 3 other Wildcats and all 4 other Spartans are inside the arc, and none of the Wildcats look as though they are planning for Oscar to pass the ball. What’s worse, 3 of the defenders are largely sagging off their assignments to crowd the lane, removing all hope that Oscar might drive the ball. Oscar is not a prolific passer out of post-ups. When double-teamed, he did pass 30 times and shoot 15 times last season, but in all other post-ups he passed 22 times and shots 153…that’s a 7:1 ratio of shooting to passing. If you’re going to feed your All-American post player who isn’t a great passer, you probably need to either get him the ball on the block or have the rest of your team spread the floor so their defenders can’t cheat into the lane so easily.
I suspect Calipari and the rest of the coaching staff didn’t like the shot by Oscar very much. He was probably a bit tired, but you sometimes have to live with mistakes from your best players because they do more than enough to make up for it. However, absolutely nothing about that offensive set put Oscar or his teammates in a good position to score and extend their lead.
The game really never should have made it to overtime. It took Joey Hauser hitting a billion 17 foot jumpers, Kentucky running a couple of junky offensive sets, a missed free throw by a freshman guard, and a one-in-a-million defensive lapse just to get to OT. I believe UK’s coaching staff can fix some of those factors and patience can settle the rest, but I think an honest evaluation of how Kentucky designs their late game sets is in order. Two key possessions featured players being put in suboptimal situations for them to score, with actions from their teammates that further cluttered things. That can’t happen if Kentucky is going to pull out wins in these types of games the next time around.