The Kentucky Wildcats are nearing the end of maybe the most difficult 4 game stretch that any top 20 team will play this season. As if the quality of opponent didn’t make the games tough enough, Kentucky has been down 2 starters for the last 2 games and much of the 3rd. Given those circumstances, 2-1 is a really good outcome, and the hard-fought nature of the 2 wins make it even better. But all that is past, and now the Wildcats have to face maybe their toughest opponent all season.
On it face it may seems odd to single out this game. Kentucky has played 7 games against teams rated higher by KenPom, and 5 of those games were away from Rupp Arena. Arkansas has won 11 of 12 games, but only 4 of those were against KenPom top 50 teams and none of those wins were by more than 10 points. In that same stretch UK has 6 wins over KenPom top 50 teams with 3 by over 10 points. However, I believe Arkansas is one of the few teams in the country that can stand toe-to-toe with this Wildcat team. In this edition of Hoops Insight, I’ll explain how good Arkansas is, and why I believe they are the rare team that has another gear to get to in big games.
Midseason rotation changes and an elite defense
On the morning of January 9th, there was not much evidence that Arkansas was going to be an SEC contender. They had just lost to Missouri, Vanderbilt, and Texas A&M to drop to 0-3 in the SEC. Per Bart Torvik, the Hogs ranked 77th in the nation. They had the 56th rated offense and 116th rated defense. The only thing they seemed good at on D was defensive rebounding.
To that point, the Razorbacks had blended transfers Chris Lykes, Stanley Umude, Trey Wade, Jaxson Robinson, and Audiese Toney with returnees JD Notae, Davonte Davis, Jaylin Williams, and Connor Vanover. But following that game, the Arkansas coaching staff clearly decided to change things up. Lykes, Robinson, and Vanover saw their roles slashed, with Robinson and Vanover largely disappearing from the rotation. These changes removed the 5’7” Lykes and 7’3” Vanover in favor of a rotation full of 6’6” players, with Notae at 6’2” the shortest and Williams at 6’10” the only real size/
To put it mildly, the Razorbacks have thrived since this change. Since January 9th, they rank #4 in the nation per Bart Torvik. Their defense is #1 since that time, and they are the only team in the country to rank in the top 20 in both effective Fg% allowed and turnovers forced. It’s very rare to find a defense that can limit opponent shooting and force turnovers, as ganbling to accomplish the latter usually leaves openings for easy baskets. Not so with Arkansas, however. The Razorbacks haven’t been great at defensive rebounding since this time, which is odd given their earlier success, but it’s really due to their guards and wings falling off on that side of the ball. I suspect a greater focus on closing out on shooters is taking them away from the defensive boards, but overall the tradeoff is worth it. The Razorbacks are amazing on defense.
One key area where Arkansas has really improved is 3 point defense. Earlier in the year opponents were hitting 36% from three, and random opponents like Northern Iowa, Central Arkansas, and Oklahoma hit over 45%. But since the Jan 8 loss, Georgia is the only opponent to hit over 32% and the Razorbacks have allowed only 27% from deep. Kentucky has been lights out from three in SEC play, but they will be tested against the backcourt length of Arkansas.
An elite core, but also a possible weakness
As good as Arkansas has been, they possibly have room to improve by tightening their rotation even further. Since the Jan 8 loss, over 60% of their minutes have been played by lineups consisting of a 6 man core: JD Notae, Jaylin Williams, Davonte Davis, Stanley Umude, Trey Wade, and Au’diese Toney. Prior to Jan 8, lineups solely featuring that group made up less than 10% of Arkansas’ minutes.
That 6 man core has been absolutely elite. Arkansas has posted an adjusted margin of +36 point per 100 possessions during the 60% of minutes they played, but just +20 per 100 when anyone else plays. This is very similar to what Kentucky has done since the Notre Dame loss with their core 8 man rotation (usual starters plus Mintz, Toppin, Ware), as the Wildcats have posted an adjusted margin of +37 per 100.
While Arkansas is elite defensively no matter who plays over the last 6 weeks, they also have played very well on offense with their core 6. The difference stems from two core factors:
Hitting more threes
Committing fewer turnovers
While things like this are usually due to several players improving, Arkansas can really thank two players for these improvement. JD Notae has become a flamethrower on transition threes, hitting 8 of 17 over the last 6 weeks despite going just 5 for 24 prior. Jaylin Williams has slashed his turnover rate nearly in half, going from 3.5 per 40 minutes to just 1.8 per 40.
These improvements have lasted for 6 weeks, but there’s reason to believe that Arkansas could be vulnerable to regression. First, Notae has shown very little other than this specific stretch of transition threes to indicate that he’s much of a shooter. As mentioned before, he was 5-24 during the opening stretch of the season in the same situations, and in halfcourt offense he’s been a 28% shooter (17 for 61). Arkansas doesn’t get out in transition much, so they aren’t getting much use out of this hot stretch anyway.
Second, Williams was very turnover prone as a freshman and for the first 2 months of his sophomore year. While he’s reduced his turnovers, he’s also seen his assists decline, indicating that he’s not really being more secure with the ball…he’s just not trying to pass as often. UK may be able to have some success looking to pressure him into decisions with the ball, and Oscar Tshiebwe may look to add to his steal total against Williams.
Kentucky should look to aggressively attack Lykes whenever he’s in the game on defense. Per Synergy, Lykes grades poorly defending handoffs or players coming off screens. If he’s on Mintz or Grady, Kentucky should have the other handle the ball and make Lykes guard shooters around screens and handoffs. They’ll likely get open looks, and these are especially good shots for Grady in particular.
One other possible opening for Kentucky is interior scoring. For as good as Arkansas has been on defense, they have struggled against some top tier opponents who can score around the rim. Auburn, Alabama, and Florida combined to hit 73% of their shots at the rim against Arkansas. Kentucky is elite in scoring at the rim, and may be able to punish the Razorbacks inside. I don’t know if that will be enough, but it’s a good place to start.
As impressive as the last 2 wins have been for Kentucky, they haven’t really gotten any superhuman performances to carry them. Over the last 2 games, Oscar Tshiebwe is averaging 20.6 pts/40 min, Kellan Grady is averaging 19.3/40, and Keion Brooks is averaging 16.5/40. Brooks and Tshiebwe are actually averaging more points per 40 minutes over the full season. While Grady has increased his pts per 40 from 15 to 19 in the last 2 games, that’s entirely due to taking a higher volume of shots; his effective Fg% has declined slightly from 62% for the full season to 60% over the past 2.
What I’m trying to say here is that Kentucky isn’t getting any kind of unsustainable offensive heroics to lead them over the past 2 games. However, I think they are going to need that type of performance to get a win over the Razorbacks in Fayetteville. This Arkansas defense doesn’t rely solely on turnovers and shooting luck like some other SEC teams; they have almost no real weaknesses on defense and contest everything.
The recipe for Kentucky to win is something like this:
Aggressive scoring at the rim, particularly from Brooks/Toppin against smaller defenders
Dominant offensive rebounding game leading to a lot of second chance points
Opportunistic shooting from 3, particularly in transition or after offensive rebounds
Oscar Tshiebwe bothers Jaylin Williams into turnovers or contested shots that miss
Kentucky can win this game, but it’s going to take a bit of good fortune and a locked-in Wildcat squad. It’s reasonable to expect some fatigue after most of UK’s starters have been playing 35+ minutes the last 2 games. If Wheeler or Washington are healthy, that would be a huge boost. If not, Kentucky has shown they have a lot of fight in them, and they’re going to need every bit of that.