A clarification on threes, and nitpicking a blowout win
I attempt to explain that shooting threes itself isn't the point, and I find some things UK needs to shore up in a mostly impressive performance
This post is going out to all Hoops Insight subscribers as a free article during opening week.To make sure you keep getting Kentucky articles from me, please check that you have opted in to Kentucky articles at the link below.
Perhaps the biggest development in basketball (especially professional) over the past decade is the seismic shift towards outside shooting. It took 16 seasons and a shortened 3 point line for NBA teams to crack 15 3PA per 100 possessions (data here) and another 18 for teams to average more than 20 3PA per 100 possessions, which happened in the 2012-13 season. That was 10 years ago. By 2015-16, they were up to 25, and by 2018-19 they passed 30. This season they might crack 35 3PA per 100 possessions.
This has happened in college hoops too, but more slowly and less dramatically. In 2002, 27 teams took 40% of their shots from 3 point range. That inched up to 43 teams by 2007, and stayed kinda flat; in 2015 44 D-1 teams took 40% of their shots from deep. Starting in 2016, however, the 3 point revolution hit college. Here’s the number of D-1 teams taking more than 40% of their shots from three, by year:
2016: 66
2017: 84
2018: 103
2019: 142
2020: 113 (the pandemic did wild stuff, man)
2021: 102
2022: 121
In their opening game of the season, I noted that Kentucky was more three-happy than usual:
It’s not as simple as “threes good!!!”, however. Taking more threes is not a goal in and of itself; it’s a tactic that can help lead to the goal of having a more effective offense. In this edition of Hoops Insight, I attempt to offer some nuance around three pointers…plus, I found a couple things to complain about after Kentucky’s blowout over Howard.
Shooting threes helps, but it’s not the only answer
The goal on offense is obviously to score as many points as possible per possession. Prior to the three point era, the answer was usually “get as close to the basket as possible”. Then the basketball Illuminati threw a monkey wrench that seems wild in retrospect, declaring that shots from behind a line were worth an extra point now. Anyone who spent much of their life watching basketball before that can be forgiven for being accustomed to the idea that jumpers were bad and dumb, but now that wasn’t necessarily the case.
But here’s the thing: the best way to score points in basketball is still to get as close to the basket as possible, at least when it comes to field goals. Last season Kentucky hit almost 72% of their shots at the rim, or 1.44 points per shot. The best 3 point shooting team in the country, South Dakota State, hit 44.5% of their threes, or about 1.34 points per shot. There’s a reason why the best NBA defenses revolve around rim protection. Additionally, shots around the rim are more likely to draw free throws (the actual most efficient source of offense). Per Synergy, the team that drew shooting fouls most often on jumpers was Syracuse, with 4.6% of their jumpers resulting in a fou;. Pittsburgh drew free throws on 29% of their shots at the rim. It’s no contest. So why are threes so good again?
Shooting more threes helps lead to a more effective offense when it:
Draws defenders further away from the rim, opening up space for ther players to drive, cut, or post-up closer to the basket with less defensive traffic
Goes in often enough to score more points than the alternative two point shot
Replaces midrange jumpers, which go in about as often as threes but are worth 50% less
Shooting more threes doesn’t help much if they:
Go in at a low rate
Replace shots at the rim or free throws
Result in turnovers due to frequent perimeter passes
Among the teams who led the nation in 3 point rate last year per KenPom, some had great offenses and some didn’t. Western Carolina and Coppin State were among the 5 most three-happy team last season but both hit less than 31% from deep; that didn’t help much. Detroit Mercy was 10th in 3 point frequency but almost never got to the rim or drew free throws. North Florida took a ton of threes but only hit 32%, and were one of the most turnover-prone teams in the country. If teams aren’t very talented or are too gimmicky in hunting threes, they can’t create good looks from deep and still be effective in other areas.
Shooting more threes isn’t some magic formula for everyone. However, Kentucky is EXACTLY the kind of team who could benefit from it. Kentucky is almost always one of the most effective teams in the country at scoring at the rim, but they take a low percentage of their shots there due to poor spacing. Kentucky guards frequently have little room to drive, and take a ton of midrange shots; UK takes a higher percentage of shots from midrange each year than almost any major conference team. Despite that, UK has a lot of success because they are very good at drawing free throws and getting offensive rebounds. Using the threat of outside shooting to create more space would open up things tremendously, allowing UK’s athletic guards and bigs more freedom to get to the rim and score. That’s all I’m asking for, it’s not much!
Finding something to complain about
I tend to have a bit of a contrarian streak to me. I don’t think I bring much value to college basketball discourse if I’m saying the same thing everyone else is. Additionally, when a team has ambitions as a national title contender like UK should this year I believe that shoring up little things on the margins is the best way to get there. In that spirit, let me nitpick about a couple things I noticed from UK’s opening win.
When I downloaded the data for the game, the first thing I looked at was the types of shots UK gave up with Ugonna Onyenso was in the game. He recorded a flurry of blocks right away, but I’ve noticed over the years that a lot of blocks tends to go hand-in-hand with a lot of missed blocks, which tend to lead to layups. What I saw was that Howard took a huge proportion of their shots at the rim when Onyenso was in the game (58%), and a much lower share of shots there when Lance Ware was in (35%). The Bison weren’t any better at hitting shots at the rim in either case, making 50% in each situation, but the goal is to keep opponents away from the rim. Was this because Onyenso chased blocks and gave up easier shots? Was it just a fluke? I went back and watched the defensive possessions to see what was happening.
As I watched, it wasn’t as bad as I feared. Onyenso wasn’t wildly chasing blocks by any means. Rather, the issue was that Howard put him in a steady stream of pick and rolls and their ballhandlers got into the lane repeatedly. Onyenso did not look ready to handle these situations, as he frequently got caught in no man’s land between guarding his man and switching to the ballhandler, accomplishing neither. His length allowed him to contest shots despite this, but it’s absolutely something that needs to improve. Lance Ware was better, using quick feet to disrupt this action (leading in part to his 4 fouls), with Ware’s experience making up for Onyenso’s physical gifts. Onyenso and Antonio Reeves were a particularly rough duo, and Howard made a point of attacking them in pick and roll frequently. Interestingly, Reeves and Onyenso played together almost exclusively until garbage time. With offseason chatter about Reeves needing to work on his defense, it’s possible Calipari wants to pair him with a shotblocking security blanket for a while. Until the two figure out their communication and coverage, there will likely be opportunities for dramatic blocks interpsersed with some flubbed rotations and open opponent shots.
Moving on to item two on my grumpy agenda…Jacob Toppin’s shot selection. He is a spectacular athlete, and he had some stellar moments in UK’s preseason, but I continue to be baffled by some of his offensive choices. For two seasons he was largely hesitant to shoot at all. He was more aggressive in Monday’s opener, but in some unproductive ways. Excluding garbage time, Toppin took 8 shots. 5 of them were two point jumpers. He made 1 of them. He was 0-3 on dribble jumpers, with the most offensive being this one
6 seconds into the shot clock, he took a couple dribbles inside the arc and pulled up for a dribble jumper. Nobody else in the picture is clearly open, but Kentucky has boatloads of time to find something better than this. Over 3 years prior to this, Jacob Toppin has hit 14 of 49 dribble jumpers (per Synergy). This is a 30% shot worth 2 points. Please stop doing this. Shoot threes, drive to the basket, and pass Jacob.
No idea what to expect from Duquesne
Kentucky plays the Duquesne Dukes on Friday. KenPom rates them at #124, which is pretty good for a mid-major but nothing too challenging. Here’s the oddest thing about them, however: they basically turned over their entire team from last season. The Dukes blasted a decent Montana team by 28, but 80% of the Duquesne minutes and 75 of the 91 points came from newcomers. Last season Duquesne lost their last 16 games, and apparently the coach decided to bring in some new blood.
Keith Dambrot has been Duquesne’s coach for 6 seasons, and there’s not much to point to in terms of consistent style. They tend to be pretty solid at blocking shots and poor at defensive rebounding, which is likely to be a bad mix against Kentucky. In their opener, Duquesne hit 21 of 24 shots at the rim, but it seems unlikely they’ll do that given Kentucky’s big man talent. Transfer guard Dae Dae Grant went 6-6 from three, with some notable damage coming off screens, but he was also 1-14 on threes off screens last year so who knows. Duquense also has some wings who are solid at running pick and roll, so it’ll be worth watching to see if they try to draw Onyenso into that action and have much success. UK’s guards just need to keep the ballhandler in front of them to avoid helping off shooters, and they should be fine.
Thanks for reading….dont’t forget, starting next week you’ll need to be a paid subscriber to receive 2 Kentucky articles per week. My next free article is scheduled to be a preview of the Kentucky-Gonzaga game on Nov 20, so keep your eyes peeled and tell your friends!
This analysis brings out something that I have missed.
I have bemoaned our lack of 3's for years, but in rare yrs when we do approach the national average, I take some solace, but then I end up wondering why that ended badly too.
If the point of 3s is to open up the even better shot of rim 2s and FTs in half court offense, we are taking even less 3s on avg than I even realized in the half court since most of our 3s are in transition.
Would be interesting to see how we compare nationally in half court stats only.
And could this be why I thought we looked so good last year with Wheeler out to injury even though our tempo slowed down? (and I prefer tempo, always, to a fault, hating to watch grind outs).
Playing 3 positions capable of shooting 3's sure looked good to me though