UK's Struggles Late
Kentucky suffered a complete and total collapse against Tennessee, but falling apart late has actually been common for the Cats recently. I take a look at the last 5 games and identify some of the problems plaguing the Cats.
Late Game Issues Had Been Overstated...Until Recently
The book on UK this season has been that they build leads and fall apart, but that hadn't been completely true. Yes, UK had struggled to hold leads past 10 points, but through February 15th UK was doing a solid job late in games. UK had lost games due to poor starts (Evansville, Utah, Ohio State) and late collapses (South Carolina, Auburn), but had performed about as well early as late. In the opening 35 minutes of games through Feb 15th, UK had an adjusted margin of +18 points/100 poss. In the last 5 minutes, their adjusted margin was +17. But this changed starting with the LSU game on February 18th.
The good news is that UK has been very good in the opening 35 minutes of recent games. They held double digits leads at LSU and Texas A&M, and their only deficit was by 3 to Tennessee. UK's adjusted margin was +23 points per 100 possessions in those games during the first 35 minutes, an improvement over their earlier season numbers.
The bad news is that Kentucky has repeatedly collapsed during the final 5 minutes. They have been outscored in 4 of the 5 games, with Auburn the lone exception. They held on to win in 4 of the 5 games, but have posted an adjusted margin of -20 points per 100 possessions. As the numbers below show, it's been a pretty thorough collapse:
UK stats, last 5 games First 35 minutes Last 5 minutes Pts per poss 1.07 1.00 Pts allowed per poss 0.96 1.31 eFG% 54% 47% Opp eFG% 49% 55% Turnover % 18% 22% Opp Turnover % 21% 14% Off Reb % 30% 32% Def Reb % 65% 44% FTA/100 FGA 28.1 72.7 Opp FTA/FGA 27.7 70.7 In every stat except offensive rebounding and free throw rate, Kentucky has gotten much worse. Free throw rate should improve since UK was leading these games and benefited from being fouled on purpose. Everything else becomes a disaster.
It's not like any stat is being affected solely by one game. Turnovers were a serious problem against Florida, A&M, and Tennessee; they were memorable against LSU, but UK actually was OK outside of the last minute in that game. Defensive rebounding fell apart against LSU, Florida, and Tennessee; incredibly, Kentucky did not collect a single rebound int he last 5 minutes against LSU!
UK's shooting was a problem against LSU, Auburn, and Tennessee, and opponent shooting was a problem in every game except Auburn. In fact, UK managed to post a +3 in the last 5 minutes against Auburn solely because Auburn had an eFG% of 11% and UK never turned the ball over.
You get the picture, lots of things went wrong. However, the story behind UK's shooting woes is the most interesting, so I'll focus there.
UK Becomes Guard Dependent Late
For as much attention as UK's guards get, they haven't really dominated the ball tremendously this season. Hagans, Quickley, and Maxey combined take about 56% of UK's shots, with Richards, Montgomery, and Sestina taking 29%. But in the last 5 games, things have changed a bit.
During the first 35 minutes, everything is as expected; UK's 3 guards take 56% of UK's shots and the bigs take 26%. But during the final 5 minutes things are very different. UK's 3 guards have taken a whopping 91% of UK's shots in the final 5 minutes of these last 5 games (30 of 33). Nick Richards has taken 3 shots, and no other Wildcat has attempted a shot.
That was the not the case earlier in the season by any means. Prior to Feb 18th, UK's guards had taken 60% of UK's shots in the final 5 minutes. To compound this, UK's guard are not particularly good shooters. None of them rank in the top 500 nationally in effective FG% (per KenPom.com), with Hagans and Maxey having the lowest and 3rd lowest eFG% respectively for any UK starters in the past 4 seasons.
The one bright spot is Immanuel Quickley. His effective FG% for the season is not great, but he has 2 things that make him stand out. First, he's an amazing free throw shooter, of course; that's been covered everywhere. but what isn't as well known is that Quickley is extremely clutch. His eFG% rises from 50% during the first 35 minutes to 65% during the final 5 minutes. Effective FG% doesn't include free throws, so it's even understating his offensive impact.
Shot Selection is a Problem Late
In the last 5 minutes of the last 5 games, UK becomes incredibly three-happy. While some supporters have longed to see this team embrace outside shots, the sample over the last few games suggests that is not a good idea. First, here is UK's shot chart for the first 35 minutes during the last 5 games:
Not bad! Strong shooting from deep, lots of shots in the paint; some trouble from midrange, but nobody's perfect. Now, the final 5 minutes:
On the positive side, UK fixed the midrange shooting issue! But UK is unrepentantly missing from the outside, and barely getting into the paint.
Every UK guard is contributing to this problem. Ashton Hagans goes from taking 62% of his shots in the paint to 33%, and has taken 3 of his 6 shots from deep for some reason (he's 0-3). Immanuel Quickley has hit 3-6 from deep, but has only taken 1 of his 11 shots in the paint. Tyrese Maxey is 2-2 in the paint but 0-7 from 3 late.
Remember when I said UK's guards have taken 30 of 33 shots in the last 5 minutes, and Nick Richards has taken the other 3? Well, Richards has hit all 3 of his shots in the last 5 minutes lately. However, in 3 of the 5 games he has not gotten a single shot down the stretch. UK's offense has lost all sense of balance late in games recently, and it's kept them from being able to preserve or extend leads.
UK Can Adjust to Their Strengths
UK could make a few adjustments to their offense late to help fix these issues. First, I think they should consider playing Nate Sestina late instead of EJ Montgomery. Sestina offers the threat of spacing the floor, while EJ's main contribution is offensive rebounding. Given UK's scoring woes, another offensive threat may be needed, and Sestina has shown the ability to contribute at that end.
Second, I think UK should lean more heavily on Immanuel Quickley late. Quickley is the most efficient isolation scorer in college basketball this season (minimum 25 iso possessions), creating over 1.4 points per possession, per Synergy. His ability to hit shots and draw fouls is a huge weapon, and Hagans and Maxey just aren't as effective as Quickley. I believe UK should also run more action using the threat of Nick Richards either as a roll man or in the dunker spot on the weakside block. Richards rates in the 90th percentile scoring as a roll man and in the 99th percentile scoring around the basket off passes; a two-man game with Quickley (who is in the 83rd percentile as a pick and roll ballhandler) and Richards could be lethal. Alternately, a two-man game with Maxey (who is in the 89th percentile) and Richards in the pick and roll with Quickley spotting up could be very dangerous. Hagans' best role in all of this may be as an off-ball cutter; instead of spotting up for threes when his man sags off him, he could be cutting to the basket from the weakside.
Much of UK's offensive action late in games has involved a guard trying to create and kicking out to another guard for a late three attempt. There's no reason for Tyrese Maxey to have more three point attempts than Immanuel Quickley in the clutch, or for Maxey and Hagans threes to account for 10 of UK's 33 shots late in games. If UK can lean more heavily on their most effective scorers (Quickly and Richards), and put other players in a position to succeed, they could start seeing some leads grow late in games instead of shrink.
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