The Brilliance of David Johnson; UofL-UVa preview
The Louisville Cardinals basketball season has slowly but surely been turned over to the capable hands of David Johnson. In the four games since he was elevated into the starting lineup, he has become the key to unlocking offensive brilliance from the Cardinals. I explain what's happening and how, plus a preview of UofL-Virginia, in this edition of Hoops Insight!
A New Dependence on David Johnson
For most of the season, UofL's offense was just fine without David Johnson. Through the Clemson loss on Feb 15th, UofL was averaging 108 points per 100 possessions when Johnson sat, and just 102 when he played. Since Johnson was elevated into the starting lineup against Syracuse, Louisville's offense has been nuclear with Johnson in the game and pedestrian without him. UofL is averaging 127 points per 100 possessions in the last 4 games with Johnson in, and just 75 with him out. Even in the Florida State loss, Louisville averaged 121 pts/100 poss and was +2 with Johnson in, compared to just 43 pts/100 poss and -17 with him out.
UofL's offensive improvement has been staggering with Johnson in over the last 4 games: UofL, last 4 games Johnson In Johnson Out Pts per 100 poss 127 75 2pt% 59% 43% 3pt% 39% 20% eFG% 59% 38% UofL's shooting has driven significant offensive improvement when David Johnson plays lately. The key has been a focus on high quality shots and a change in Johnson's role, as I'll explain.
Improving Shot Quality
Johnson's impact has been felt most clearly in changing the profile of UofL's halfcourt offense. Here's a look at UofL's halfcourt shooting the past 4 games with Johnson in:
Now here's the same chart when Johnson is out:
With Johnson in the game, UofL is shooting more often in the paint and less often from midrange. The Cards are also hitting more shots in the paint, as well as more shots from deep.
The first assumption would be that Johnson is getting the ball into UofL's big men more often, but that's not whats's happening. Enoch & Williams take about 40% of UofL's shots in the paint when Johnson sits, but only 30% when Johnson plays. Instead, UofL's wings and guards are increasing their volume of shots in the paint.
Louisville is also more accurate from deep in the last 4 games with Johnson in, despite Johnson being a poor shooter. He is 1-7 himself, but he's unlocking quality shots for his teammates. UofL's main snipers, Nwora and McMahon, are hitting 44% of their threes with Johnson in and just 22% when Johnson sits. The effect isn't limited to just one game, either; that duo has hit greater than 36% from three in each of the last 4 games with Johnson in, and no better than 33% in any game with Johnson out.
Being a Playmaker, Not a Scorer
Johnson is actually much more dangerous as a creator than as a scorer at this point in his career. Per Synergy, he is in the 42nd percentile as an isolation scorer. For a big point guard with his athleticism, that's not very good. But when he passes out of isolation plays, UofL is in the 78th percentile in scoring!
To his credit, Johnson is recognizing where his strengths lie. While some players would respond to a promotion to the starting lineup by jacking up more shots, Johnson has done the opposite. He was taking 25% of UofL's shots when he played prior to Feb 19th, but has scaled that back to just 18% since moving to the starting lineup.
Jordan Nwora has been the largest beneficiary of Johnson's unselfishness. Prior to Feb 19, Nwora took just 20% of UofL's shots when he and Johnson shared the court. But since Feb 19, Nwora is taking 33% of the shots when he plays with Johnson.
Nwora is getting higher quality looks alongside Johnson, too. Over the past 4 games, Nwora has taken 34% of his shots in the paints when playing alongside Johnson and only 8% when Johnson sits. Instead of getting to the paint (where Nwora hits over 60% of shots), he's settling for midrange shots (where he hits about 30%). The impact can be seen in his per-36 minute averages over the last 4 games with and without Johnson:
With Johnson: 20.4 pts, 9.8 reb, 1.0 ast per 36 min; 55% eFG%, 33% 3pt%
Without Johnson: 10.1 pts, 9.2 reb, 2.8 ast per 36 min; 35% eFG%, 14% 3pt%
Nwora is a much more effective scorer when he's getting more shots in the paint. Watching game film of the past few games you can see Johnson's playmaking easing the burden on Nwora. Johnson is able to get the ball into the lane and draw defensive attention. When he moves the ball to Nwora, there's either an open jump shot or a drive past a closing defender. Nwora doesn't have a ton of burst or the ability to handle the ball well on drives; Per Synergy's tracking data, Nwora is in the 16th percentile of scorers on Isolation plays and 42nd percentile as the ballhandler in a pick and roll. Nwora does stand out when he gets the ball in a position to score; he is in the 94th percentile on spot-ups, the 78th percentile in transition, and the 95th percentile as a roll man in the pick-and-roll. Johnson magnifies what Nwora does well, and removes the need for Nwora to do other things.
Play Him More, Please!
Unlocking David Johnson as a playmaker has turbocharged the Cardinal offense lately, and is putting their players in roles where they can succeed. The remaining piece to the puzzle is increasing Johnson's role even further. He has yet to play 30 minutes in a game this season for UofL, while Fresh Kimble and Darius Perry have done so 3 times each. Ryan McMahon has done so 8 times, and Nwora and Sutton rarely play less than 30 minutes. It's time for UofL to increase David Johnson's minutes even further to become the best version of themselves.
UofL-Virginia: Different from the Last Time?
Although the previous matchup with Virginia was less than a month ago, both teams have changed significantly in that time. Virginia was sitting at 7-5 in ACC play after that loss and on the NCAA bubble, but they have not lost since. Louisville was riding high at 12-1 in the ACC, but two subsequent losses in a row led to a starting lineup change for the Cards.
While Louisville won that first matchup by 7 points, there were a few factors working against the Cards. First, Virginia's outside shooting was amazing in that game. While the Cavaliers are hitting just 30% of their threes on the season, they went 11-22 behind Thomas Woldetensae and Kihei Clark. Woldetensae in particular is an odd case as a boom-or-bust shooter. He has 4 games this season where he hit 50% of better on 8 or more attempts, but also 7 games where he hit 25% or worse on 6 or more attempts.
Another factor working against UofL that game was that they were still playing their previous ineffective starting lineup. The Perry/Kimble pairing started and played a team-high 17 possessions; they posted a +0. David Johnson played half the game and put up a +6. Given how UofL has adjusted their rotation, you should expect to see less of what didn't work and more of what did.
Playing David Johnson more is a way to attack the Cavalier defense where it's most vulnerable. Virginia has the best half-court defense in America, but their relative weak spot is defending the pick and roll ballhandler. They rank in the 67th percentile; that's good, but not elite by any means. What's more, Kihei Clark, Braxton Key, and Casey Morsell all rate below average, and they are the 3 most common defenders Virginia uses against pick and roll ballhandlers. Well, David Johnson runs pick and roll more than any other play type. Against Virginia in the first matchup, he was successful early on hitting the roll man and creating shots for UofL. Virginia adjusted and Johnson found open 3 point shooters. Johnson's pick and roll creation can open up offense for UofL; it's a matter of staying a step ahead of Virginia's adjustments.
A second win against Virginia, away from home, would be a major confidence boost for the Cards heading into the postseason. I think the matchup can work well for UofL if they continue to empower Johnson as a creator, and if he continues to find his teammates.
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