Nate Sestina Appreciation; Tennessee Preview
Senior Night at Kentucky is a bit different than other places. This season, it will be a celebration of the lone year spent at the program for Nate Sestina. While he hasn't spent as much time making memories here as seniors do at other programs, he's a big part of a Kentucky team that is looking forward to a deep postseason run. In honor of Sestina, I wanted to take this chance to look at the impact he might have in helping the Cats reach their goal. Plus, I preview UK's game against Tennessee!
A Stretch Big Man with Surprising Defensive Skill
When you think of Nate Sestina, the first thing you probably think of is his remarkable shooting ability for a big man. But Sestina isn't just a good shooter for a big man; he's one of the best shooters in the SEC, period. There are 3 players in the SEC this season who have hit over 40% of their threes (min 50 3PA) and over 70% of their free throws (min 30 FTA): Aaron Nesmith of Vanderbilt, Immanuel Quickley, and Nate Sestina. That's it, that's the full list.
Sestina isn't known for his defense, but he grades out surprisingly well in post defense. 24 opponent possessions have ended with a player trying to post up Nate Sestina: 15 shots, 6 turnovers, and 3 fouls called on Sestina. Those 24 possessions have yielded just 14 points, or 0.583 points per possessions. That puts Sestina in the 87th percentile nationally in defending post-ups!
His Shooting Has a Big Impact
When Sestina is in the game, the threat of his 3 point shooting pulls a post defender away from the lane and creates space for UK's guards to drive. Both Ashton Hagans and Tyrese Maxey have benefited from this, especially in SEC play. During conference games;
Ashton Hagans takes 67% of his shots in the paint, and hits 50% with Sestina in; with Sestina out, he takes 47% of his shots in the paint and hits 42%
Tyrese Maxey takes 50% of his shots in the paint, and hits 71% with Sestina in; with Sestina out, he takes 42% of his shots in the paint and hits 63%
Kentucky has more team success when Sestina is hitting outside shots, too. He has hit a 3 pointer in 13 games this season. In those games, UK had an adjusted margin of +25 points per 100 poss with Sestina in, and +19 per 100 when Sestina was out of the game. The threat of a big man hitting outside shots raises UK's ceiling.
Sestina Is Helping UK Now More Than Ever
During Kentucky's 8 game winning streak, Sestina's per-36 minute averages are 11.9 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 1.6 blocks. 2 of Sestina's double-digit scoring games have come in this stretch, along with an 8 rebound game vs LSU and 3 blocks vs Vanderbilt (in just 9 minutes!) Sestina has an effective FG% of 60% in the last 8 games, and is hitting 50% of his threes.
During that same 8 game stretch, Nate Sestina has had a positive plus/minus in every game. He is the only Wildcat besides the 3 starting guards who can claim that achievement.
This is the 2nd season in a row that Kentucky has had a grad transfer big man, and both have made important contributions. The Wildcats have been fortunate to have Sestina help them through some rough patches this year, and it's a shame they won't have his help next season. If they're lucky, the Cats will find another grad transfer to continue the tradition next season.
Can UK go 2 for 2 against the Vols?
Accounting for final margin, opponent strength, and location, the Tennessee game was Kentucky's best performance of the season. Johnny Juzang's career high 13 points were a significant highlight, and Kentucky posted a +7 margin with him in the game. That was his 2nd best plus/minus of the season, behind only the Fairleigh Dickinson game in early December.
The 13 point margin of victory was UK's 2nd largest in SEC play. This was surprising because Kentucky's "Core Four" played only 18 possessions, their fewest in any SEC win. They managed to post a +12 in their limited time, and if they get their usual playing time (about 50% of the game), Kentucky could record a blowout for the first time in a while.
On offense, Tennessee's strong point is their post-up offense. This largely consists of John Fulkerson drawing fouls, and Yves Pons hitting shots. The Vols rate poorly in most other areas on offense, especially scoring in transition. The Vols rank in the 5th percentile in transition scoring, with turnovers a serious problem.
Tennessee is much more competent on defense. Their strength is defending shots at the rim, as they rank 7th nationally. Nick Richards wasn't bothered by their attempts to defend him in the first matchup, however; he was a perfect 5-5 at the rim.
Josiah-Jordan James grades out as Tennessee's best perimeter defender, especially guarding the ballhandler in pick-and-roll. Synergy rates him in the 84th percentile, and he's been very successful forcing turnovers in these situations. I wouldn't be surprised to see him matched up against Ashton Hagans, since Hagans' bread and butter is running pick and roll. Tennessee's other perimeter defenders, Santiago Vescovi and Jordan Bowden, rate much worse in pick-and-roll and isolation defense. Maxey, Hagans, and Quickley all like to run this type of action, and whichever two are matched against Vescovi and Bowden should be able to score.
UK should be able to score in the post. While Yves Pons is a very capable shot blocker, John Fulkerson rates as a Below Average post defender and is prone to fouling. Nick Richards and Nate Sestina have been effective at scoring and drawing fouls in the post; they may be able to give Fulkerson a taste of his own medicine. Kentucky could also collect offensive rebounds if Pons gets too aggressive going for blocks. The Vols are not a good defensive rebounding team, and are undersized with Pons starting at PF. Whoever Pons is guarding should crash the offensive glass when he tries to go for blocks. Luckily for UK, all of their power forwards are good offensive rebounders...look for EJ, Nate, and Keion to have good opportunities for putbacks if Pons gets aggressive.
Tennessee seems to be a particularly good matchup for Kentucky. Their strengths seem to run up against UK's strengths, and UK's won out last time. The Vols don't have particularly dangerous scorers, and only Fulkerson's propensity to draw fouls kept the game reasonably close last time. Tennessee's best hope is that James can defend Hagans well enough to muck up UK's offense, Fulkerson can get Richards in foul trouble, and they have a hot night shooting from three. Otherwise, it's probably a comfortable Senior Night win for the Wildcats.
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