How Will UofL Miss Malik Williams Most; Virginia Tech Preview
Malik Williams started every game from January 9th on last season, but returned to a reserve role for most of this season until Louisville needed a spark. He's started the last 3 games, but it looks unlikely that he will play against Virginia Tech. Where does Williams make the biggest impact for UofL? What teammates will be impacted the most by his absence? Plus, what can we expect from the Virginia Tech matchup?
The Defense Might Drop Off
Williams' reputation is largely as a defensive player, and UofL's team stats demonstrate his impact. Louisville allows 88 points per 100 possessions with him in, and 92 with him out. Louisville forces turnovers more often and gets more defensive rebounds with Williams in. His biggest impact is in defending 2 point shots; opponents hit only 41% with him in, compared to 48% when Williams sits.
Williams has an impact on shots in the paint and from midrange. Opponents hit 51% in the paint and 29% from midrange with him in the game, but this rises to 58% and 34% with him out. While Williams and Steven Enoch have similar rates of blocking shots, Williams' greater mobility allows him to challenge opponents much more. While opponents 3 point shooting doesn't change with Williams in (30% either way), opponents take more threes when Williams is in. It seems likely that Williams is more of a deterrent than Enoch, and forces opponents away from the hoop. UofL will likely have a bit more trouble against dynamic guards who can get to the basket.
Per Synergy, Williams grades out as an Excellent defender against the roll man in pick-and-roll as well as in isolation, but only Average on post-ups. Steven Enoch grades out better on post up defense, especially in forcing turnovers from other big men, but is not as strong defending the pick and roll. Louisville may be more vulnerable to defending big men who are more mobile or stretch the floor, but may actually be a bit better against big men who prefer to operate in the post.
The Offense May Get Better, Thought
UofL's offense has been better this season with Williams out of the game this season. They have shot better on twos and threes when Williams sits, although they have gotten more offensive rebounds with him in the game. The offensive rebounding is easy to explain; Williams shoots less often than Steven Enoch does, so Williams is more free to crash the offensive glass. But I think the most interesting impact when Williams leaves is on UofL's 3 point shooting.
UofL goes form hitting 35% of their threes with Williams in to 40% with him out. Williams is a slightly worse shooter than Enoch from three, but their volumes are so low that they alone aren't the difference. Instead, the biggest impact is Ryan McMahon. His 3pt% goes from 37% with Williams to 48% with him out. So, what's causing that?
Looking at data and film, it looks like the dual threat of Enoch in the post and McMahon on the perimeter causes problems for the defense, and those aren't as present with Williams. Enoch posts up much more frequently than Williams, who is more active on the offensive glass and in pick and rolls. Enoch is also a better scorer on post-ups, rating in the 71st percentile nationally compared to 40th percentile for Williams. Enoch not only scores more, but also generates more offense passing out of the post. Louisville has scored 21 points on 19 possessions when Enoch passes out of the post to create offense, but only 4 points on 5 possessions where Williams does the same.
The Offense Will Likely Change
Because Steven Enoch posts up more than Williams, UofL may need to change their offense up a bit and that may affect other players.
UofL will probably run fewer pick and rolls. This may impact David Johnson the most, since that's the most common play he generates shots from. He's taken 53 shots as the ballhandler in a pick and roll, twice as many as any other play type. He'll probably run more isolation, where he turns it over a bit more but also scores more. Without Williams, Johnson has taken a higher percentage of his shots in the midrange, so it's worth watching to see if he is able to get to the basket without UofL's best screener.
UofL may depend more on Enoch post-ups and Johnson isolation to create offense for other players, because UofL doesn't have any other players who rate above average on post-ups or isolations. Luckily, both players are very good at creating offense on passes out of these situations, so the offense shouldn;t bog down too badly.
UofL will miss the relatively easy baskets from offensive rebounds, as Williams is by far the best offensive rebounder on the team. One place they could replace those baskets is by getting out in transition more. Williams wasn't particularly active in transition, and if UofL plays more smallball lineups with Sutton at center they could unlock some opportunities. Louisville has seen a slight increase in transition shots with these smallball lineups, and has posted a ridiculous 70% eFG% when shooting in transition, They've played limited time, but it looks like a real weapon.
Louisville will miss Williams' activity on defense in deterring opponents inside the rim. Louisville's guards will need to be tougher on defense to keep opponents out of the lane. On offense, Louisville may actually get a bit better ball movement to their shooters. David Johnson may need to adjust, however, as he's losing his best screener for pick and roll. One option would be for Louisville to use Nwora to set the screen; he's had limited opportunities as the roll man setting a pick but has been excellent in that short time.
Virginia Tech is an odd offensive team. The only thing they rank highly in is avoiding turnovers, but they don't do much positive from hanging onto the ball so much. Per Synergy, the only offensive action where they rate as Excellent is putbakcs from offensive rebounds, but they are one of the worst teams at actually getting offensive boards. Their bets hope is hitting threes; the Hokies hit 48% and 41% in their 2 wins of any consequence over Michigan State and NC State.
On defense, the Hokies are very good at defending ballhandlers in the pick and roll. This would be a tough matchup for David Johnson, but without Malik Williams UofL probably will run much less of that action. Tyrece Radford has been one of the best defenders in the country in that action, so watch for him guarding Johnson if the Cards do run pick and roll. However, Radford has had much less success guarding isolation, so Johnson should be able to score. Virginia Tech has not been good defending post-ups, so Enoch may have some success. The Hokies have liked to double the post, which could turn into open threes if the Cards can rotate the ball well.
I don't see much trouble for UofL if they are motivated. The Hokies just aren't good at much, and need to have a hot day from the perimeter to hang with Louisville. I expect the Cards to experiment a bit to see how they can thrive without Williams, just in case he's out for a few more games.
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