UK's Core Four and what support they need; plus, UK vs Auburn preview
The New York Yankees, maybe the premier dynasty in sports, had a group of stars who led them during the late 90's and 2000's known as the "Core Four". The Kentucky Wildcats, maybe the premier dynasty in college basketball history, also have a group of stars who have led them this season and who I'm nicknaming the "Core Four". UK has been consistently great when they have all four on the court, but have been inconsistent when one or more leaves the game. What does Kentucky need to complement their Core Four? Plus, I preview Kentucky's rematch against Auburn in this edition of Hoops Insight.
Kentucky's Core Four Lead The Way
I'd imagine nearly every UK fan can guess the four players I'm referring to as the Core Four: Ashton Hagans, Tyrese Maxey, Immanuel Quickley, and Nick Richards. They are easily the 4 leading scorers and they play the most minutes per game. All are considered contenders for conference and national awards. But in a season where UK has been somewhat frustrating in their inability to dominate teams, I think fans would be surprised as to how dominant UK has been when featuring all four of these players.
Since January 1st, UK has been significantly better when playing lineups featuring all four of these players. They have been consistently better than UK's team average during that time. I'm measuring performance using adjusted margin per 100 possessions, to adjust for differences in opponent quality and total playing time. Take a look at the adjusted margins for each game:
Over the last 16 games, UK has an adjusted margin of +20.5 points/100 poss overall, but +38.6 when playing the Core Four together. In those 16 games, UK's results when the Core Four play have been below average only 3 times, and they had 1 truly bad game against Auburn. UK has been consistently excellent when Hagans, Maxey, Quickley, and Richards are in the game together.
Supporting Lineups Have Been Inconsistent
Clever readers can figure out that something bad must be happening when other lineups are playing. It has been pretty ugly:
When at least one of Hagans/Maxey/Quickley/Richards is on the bench over the last 16 games, Kentucky has been much worse. They've played above average in only 2 games (Mississippi St. and LSU), and have a negative adjusted margin in 6 games! A negative adjusted margin means you're playing worse than an average D-1 team. That should be unacceptable for a program like Kentucky, but it's happening repeatedly. So what can make the difference for UK when they need to rely on their supporting cast?
What Does UK Need From Their Supporting Cast?
UK's going to need to rest their key players, and to do that they need their supporting cast to maintain leads. Sometimes that has happened, and sometimes it hasn't. What have been the differences between the two games?
I'll group the performances by lineups other than UK's Core Four as follows:
Good Games: Jan 11 vs Alabama, Jan 21 vs Georgia, Feb 1 vs Auburn, Feb 4 vs Miss St, Feb 8 vs Tennessee, Feb 11 vs Vanderbilt, Feb 18 vs LSU
UK was +18 during the minutes when at least 1 of the Core Four sat in these games
Bad Games: Jan 4 vs Missouri, Jan 7 vs Georgia, Jan 15 vs South Carolina, Jan 18 vs Arkansas, Jan 25 vs Texas Tech, Jan 29 vs Vanderbilt, Feb 15 vs Ole Miss, Feb 22 vs Florida, Feb 25 vs Texas A&M
UK was -46 during the minutes when at least 1 of the Core Four sat in these games
How did UK's supporting cast step up so much in some games but not in others? Here is how EJ Montgomery, Nate Sestina, Keion Brooks, and Johnny Juzang have combined to play in the Good Games and Bad Games when UK had at least one of their Core Four on the bench: Good Games Bad Games 2P% 57% 46% 3P% 53% 22% % of FGA 31% 33% Stats per 36 Min Points 20.3 16.6 Rebounds 13.5 15.1 Assists 1.9 1.5 Turnovers 2.7 4.5 Steals 0.5 1.6 Blocks 4.1 2.0 Fouls 8.2 8.9
By far the biggest difference maker has been 3-point shooting by supporting players. Obviously this is all due to Johnny Juzang and Nate Sestina. When UK played its best with one of the Core Four sitting out, Sestina & Juzang were a combined 8 for 15 from three. In games where UK struggled with one of the Core Four sitting, Sestina & Juzang combined to go 6 for 23 from three.
In SEC play, the outside shooting of Juzang and Sestina has been the biggest difference maker determining whether the Cats hold or lose the lead when resting their best players. As the postseason draws near, watch for a couple things:
UK to build big leads when Hagans, Maxey, Quickley, and Richards team up
Sestina and Juzang's outside shooting to make the difference when UK rests one of their top 4
A Chance For Revenge, But What Needs To Change?
Since their loss to Auburn, Kentucky has won 7 games in a row. Now they get a chance to avenge that loss, this time in Lexington. What are the factors from last game that should improve?
1) Scoring in the paint: Kentucky hit 43% of their shots in the paint against Auburn. Only Quickley (2-4) and Brooks (1-1) hit 50% or more of their shots there. Auburn is good at defending this area (allowed 48%), but Tennessee is even better and Kentucky managed to hit 61% against them. UK has also hit 63% in the paint in the games since Auburn, so they should be able to improve on the first game.
2) Transition offense: Kentucky wasn't at their best in transition against Auburn. They were 5-14 on these shots, including 1-6 on threes; that's a 39% eFG%. UK usually doesn't take so many transition threes, and usually shoots much better in transition, even against strong defensive teams. In transition against Louisville, Florida, and Texas Tech (who are all much better at transition defense than Auburn), Kentucky had an eFG% of 70%.
3) Ashton Hagans' play: Hagans was limited to 20 minutes due to foul trouble. He committed 6 turnovers and had no assists. These are all bad things. Hagans hasn't been playing well lately, but this should actually be a solid matchup for him. First, Auburn's guards aren't great at defending the pick-and-roll action Hagans likes to run; both Samir Doughty and J'Von McCormick grade out poorly per Synergy, with Doughty committing a lot of fouls defending these plays and McCormick allowing a high FG%. Second, Hagans is unlikely to commit the same type of fouls that got him in trouble. 2 were committed while going for defensive rebounds, and 1 was contesting a pass following an Auburn defensive rebound. Hagans can defend Auburn without getting in foul trouble, and he's only been in foul trouble in 1 game since.
I expect that Auburn will again shoot a lot of free throws; maybe not 44, but probably more than Kentucky. Auburn does rank 2nd nationally in drawing free throws...so UK probably can't expect to totally keep them off the line. However, Kentucky did have a 3 point lead with 10 minutes left before Auburn went 13-17 at the line to finish the game. If Kentucky sees some improvement in the areas I noted above, and Auburn doesn't get quite as many free throws, the Cats should be able to pull out a win.
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