UK's Shooting Defense; UK vs A&M Preview
Kentucky shut down Florida's halfcourt offense for long stretches last Saturday, with 2 long stretches holding them without a field goal. The game was still in doubt through the last minute, however, before the Cats held on to win by 6. UK has a very strong defense, and maybe an even better offense, but struggles to put teams away. In this edition of Hoops Insight, I look at how UK's defense is elite in some ways but not others, and what that might mean for their NCAA Tournament chances. Plus, I offer a quick preview of the Texas A&M game.
What You Should Know: Kentucky ranks 14th nationally in effective FG% defense, according to KenPom.com. They are equally good defending 2's and 3's, ranking 23rd and 24th respectively. Kentucky has held all but 2 opponents under their season average for eFG% (Utah and Ohio State). Over their last 16 games, UK has held opponents to 7% under their season average for shooting. A drop of 7% in eFG% is enough to change the 10th best shooting team (San Diego State, 54.8%) into the 251st best (Jacksonville, 47.8%). Despite this elite level of shooting defense, Kentucky ranks just 39th in defensive efficiency. So, what gives?
What Is Happening? The simple answer is that Kentucky is not very good at the other components of defense: turnovers, defensive rebounding, and free throws.
Kentucky ranks 204th in defensive rebounding rate. During the same 16 game stretch where UK has harassed opponents into poor shooting, they've actually allowed opponents to post a defensive rebounding rate about 2% better than they usually post. Only 6 times in those 16 games did UK hold opponents below their season average in offensive rebounding.
Kentucky is 283rd in defensive turnover percentage. Over the last 16 games, UK opponents have had a lower turnover rate than their season average in 14 games. Only in the last 2 games against LSU and Florida has UK forced the opponent into an above average number of turnovers.
Kentucky is not as bad at sending opponents to the free throw line, ranking 167th in that metric. None of these are disastrous on their own; none are even the worst they've been under Calipari. UK has had 3 worse seasons under Calipari in defensive rebounding, 4 worse seasons in forcing turnovers, and 1 worse season in allowing free throws. However, Kentucky has never been so bad at all 3 of these categories in the same season. In fact, the only seasons where Kentucky was anywhere near this bad in even two of those categories in the same season were 2016 and 2018. Those seasons are notable because they are Calipari's two NCAA Tournaments with UK where they didn't make the Sweet 16.
What Does This Mean for UK? Kentucky is excellent at forcing missed shots, but they are not forcing enough empty possessions. This makes Kentucky a bit of a one-trick pony on defense and vulnerable to a hot shooting night. Indeed, UK is 0-2 in the 2 games where their opponents had an effective FG% above 50%. That contrasts with Villanova, who ranks worse in defensive efficiency than UK but is more balanced across defensive stats. Villanova is 5-4 in games where their opponent had an eFG% of 50% or more, so they are not as vulnerable to a hot shooting night as UK might end up being.
The danger of this is illustrated when looking at some historical teams who, like Kentucky this season, depended heavily on shooting defense. I found 4 other teams since 2015 who were in the top 20 in eFG% defense, but outside the top 100 in turnovers, defensive rebounding, and free throw rate allowed. Here they are, with their NCAA tournament fate:
2018 Kentucky: #5 seed, lost to #9 Kansas State in Sweet 16
2017 Louisville: #2 seed, lost to #7 Michigan in 2nd round
2016 Kentucky: #4 seed, lost to #5 Indiana in 2nd round
2015 Kansas: #2 seed, lost to #7 Wichita St in 2nd round
4 teams, none of whom earned an NCAA Tournament win over a higher seed, and all 4 of whom lost to lower seeds. All except 2018 UK lost to a team who had a hot shooting night.
The saving grace for UK is that 3 of these 4 teams lost close games, and none were close to as good of a free throw shooting team as this Kentucky team is. However, there's some history that should scare UK fans a bit. Kentucky is going to need to either shore up their rebounding, cut down on fouls, or hope their recent success forcing turnovers carries onward. Otherwise, these Cats may fall victim to a fluky shooting night because they don't have another way to impose their will defensively.
Texas A&M is the Nebo Show
Josh Nebo is the best (and maybe only) weapon Texas A&M has on offense. Per Synergy, he's the only A&M player who rates better then average on offense. He's quite a weapon though, as he rates in the 97th percentile of scorers in the country. He is excellent at post-ups and scoring on offensive rebounds, plus he draws a ton of shooting fouls. Nick Richards has been very good for Kentucky defending post-ups, allowing a FG% of only 30% on them. Nate Sestina also rates very well per Synergy in limited time, allowing opponents to make only 3 of 12 post up shots. EJ Montgomery has been roasted on post-ups, however, committing fouls twice as often as Richards or Sestina. UK needs to keep Richards and Sestina on Nebo, and that should limit the damage.
Texas A&M is more stout on defense. Their strengths are their guards defending ballhandlers, which could cause some problems for Hagans and Maxey. Specifically, A&M's guards have done well limiting scoring by ballhandlers in the pick and roll. This may hurt UK's effectiveness at running some of their favorite sets, especially with Ashton Hagans. An interesting weakness of A&M is their general defense around the rim. Nebo is a solid shot-blocker, and A&M is very good at forcing turnovers when they double the post, but opponents shoot a high percentage when they don't commit a turnover. If UK can run some quick post-ups with Richards, he could have a lot of success given that he's one of the best rim finishers in the country. This seems like a big game for Richards, and maybe even Sestina, as they should be able to score inside.
I want to thank you for subscribing to my newsletter. At Hoops Insight, I hope to use data to find insights that reveal things you didn't realize about the Kentucky Wildcats. I'm using play-by-play data to track what's happening, who's doing it, and who is in the game, in order to show you things the box score can't. Check out my past newsletters in the Hoops Insight Archive, and read about the stats I like to use in my stats glossary.
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