Louisville's Rotation Changes; The Rematch vs FSU
Just as Louisville's season looked ready to fall apart, a starting lineup shakeup looks to have turned things around for the Cardinals. The changes to the rotation go deeper than just a tweak to the starters. I look at just how thoroughly the rotation has been adjusted, and why the changes have turned around the Cardinals' fortunes. Plus, I offer a preview of the big rematch against Florida State in the latest Hoops Insight.
The Elevation of David Johnson
Fans and media had been clamoring for David Johnson to move into a more prominent role for a few weeks, and the coaching staff made the move before the Syracuse game. What's interesting is that he didn't see a sharp increase in his minutes; he played 23 and 28 against Syracuse and UNC, after having played 24 and 26 the 2 previous games.
His impact on the final scoring margin did increase, however. UofL had a plus/minus of +19 against Syracuse and +22 against UNC with him in (excluding garbage time). +22 is a season-high for Johnson, with +19 being his 3rd best of the season. Johnson only had 3 other games with a +/- of 10 or greater this season, and none since Feb 1st against NC State. Again, this isn't driven by an increase in playing time. Johnson posted a +14 in only 14 minutes against NC State, and had 11 other games with more playing time than that prior to these last 2 starts.
More Time with the Best Lineups
UofL has finally begun to give the most time to their strongest lineups. The result is that, in the last 2 games, the lineup that played the most possessions also had the highest plus/minus on the team. That may not seem like a big achievement, since playing more time helps you compile a higher plus/minus, but it's not common for UofL. That hadn't happened since Jan 29th vs Boston College, and had only happened 4 times all season for UofL prior to these last 2 games. Despite a 14-3 ACC record, UofL has had only 7 games in conference play where their starting lineup finished the game with a positive plus/minus.
The biggest issue prior to these changes is probably well known to my subscribers. Before these last 2 games, the most common lineup UofL had played since January 1 was Perry/Kimble/Sutton/Nwora/Enoch. That group played more than twice as often as any other lineup, and had been outscored by 11 points. That was good for an adjusted margin of +4 per 100 possessions. Despite playing more than any other UofL lineup in 9 games in that stretch, they led UofL in plus/minus 1 time.
There's Still More to Do
UofL's coaching staff has clearly made some good, data-driven decisions regarding lineups. There's still more they could do, however.
First, UofL has 1 lineup that was excellent during earlier ACC play that has not played together in the last 2 games. Kimble/McMahon/Sutton/Nwora/Williams had the 2nd best adjusted margin per 100 possessions of any UofL lineup since Jan 1, and has been shelved. This group with Enoch in Williams' place has gotten time and has played well, but I'd like to see them play with Williams. This group posted a dominating 10 possessions against Pittsburgh in December, outscoring the Panthers 15-0. They can do some amazing things!
Second, Louisville has curiously shelved minutes with Johnson & Williamson together. From Jan 14th through Feb 15th, UofL had an adjusted margin of +34 per 100 possessions with this duo in the game and +19 overall. While the Cards have done well these last 2 games, Johnson & Williamson have only played 15 possessions together. They are +7 in that time, so they've produced, and I think they deserve more time. While Louisville has been turnover-prone with their 2 freshmen in the game, their athleticism and length has helped in several areas. Opponents have hit just 25% of their threes as these two have helped close out on shooters. UofL has collected 43% of their own misses, with Johnson in particular being a standout on the offensive boards. Overall, Louisville opponents have hit 32% of their threes and the Cards have collected 35% of their own misses, so they could use the boost from their freshmen.
Can the Cards Keep It Going?
Next up are the Florida State Seminoles, who present a tremendous challenge. Their athleticism is a challenge for Louisville, and stymied the Cards in January.
During the first matchup, UofL only hit 44% of their shots in the paint. Florida State is one of the best in the nation at defending this area, so this won't likely be helped. The Cards did offset this somewhat by hitting 42% of their threes, and they will need to be accurate again from distance.
The biggest areas for improvement are turnovers and opponent shooting. UofL had their 2nd highest turnover rate of the season against the Seminoles, and that will probably happen again. Florida State is in the top 10 nationally in forcing turnovers, and starting a turnover-prone freshman at point guard isn't going to help. However, UofL can hope to stymie the Seminoles' shooting more than the last game with the Johnson/Kimble backcourt as a good starting point. During the first matchup, Florida State had an eFG% of 85% when Johnson and Kimble shared the court. That's almost impossible to do in a college game, but it happened. But since that game, the Johnson/Kimble duo has been excellent defensively. They have allowed opponent to shoot:
18% from three
20% from midrange
50% in the paint
They have also shut down dribble penetration, with opponents only taking 33% of their shots in the paint against this duo.
David Johnson was about as bad in that first Florida State game as he could be. He posted a horrid -25 in 33 possessions, easily the worst game by any Cardinal this season. He was 2-9 from the field, and just completely missed almost every defensive rotation. That was a tough spot for him, given that he a) had only played more than 9 minutes against Miami OH and Eastern Kentucky to that point, b) had been completely benched against Kentucky in the prior game, and c) was playing against one of the most athletic teams in the country. Johnson will likely want to prove himself in this game. Hopefully that yields positive results and doesn't spin out of control.
If the Johnson/Kimble duo can start the game by locking down on defense, and Johnson can work his magic off the dribble to create open shots, UofL will look dramatically better in this game than they did on January 4th. If the Cards also keep reaping the benefits of improving their rotation they will find lots of little ways to eke out a victory against a very tough opponent.
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