UK Gets Better When They Get Punched In The Mouth
Mike Tyson is famous for having said "Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth". This season, the Kentucky Wildcats' best plan has been to get punched in the mouth. Four times the Wildcats have gone into halftime trailing in SEC play, and every time they've roared back in the second half to win. What has turned UK from first half kittens into second half Wildcats?
The Three Worst Halves, Followed By The Three Best
In SEC play, UK's three worst halves (by scoring margin) were the first halves at Georgia on Jan 7 (-6), at home against Vanderbilt on Jan 29 (-7), and at Vanderbilt Feb 11 (-9). UK's three best halves in SEC play are each of the three second halves of these games: +15 vs Georgia, +16 vs Vanderbilt, and +23 at Vanderbilt.
These are the games I want to focus on today. The Ole Miss game is the fourth game where UK trailed at half before winning, but I'm going to leave that game aside for today because a) UK only trailed by 2 before winning by 5 so it isn't as dramatic and b) the lone story of that game is that UK shot 2-22 from three.
With that out of the way, let's look at these 3 Bizarro games where UK looked overmatched in the first half but dominated the second half to win comfortably.
A Complete Offensive Turnaround
The stats for UK's offense look like two different teams when split between first and second half of our Bizarro games:
In the first half: 2pt Fg% 3pt FG% Off Reb% Turnover Rate Georgia 44% 33% 19% 16% Vandy 45% 17% 25% 24% @ Vandy 30% 40% 25% 17% Total 40% 29% 23% 19%
In the second half: 2pt Fg% 3pt FG% Off Reb% Turnover Rate Georgia 57% 67% 44% 16% Vandy 54% 50% 41% 8% @ Vandy 56% 100% 38% 8% Total 55% 71% 42% 11%
Improvement across basically every meaningful offensive statistic in each of 3 separate games is pretty stunning.
The defensive improvement is not quite as dramatic.
In 1st halves;: Opp 2pt Fg% Opp 3pt FG% Def Reb% Opp Turnover Rate Georgia 53% 27% 70% 18% Vandy 60% 42% 73% 18% @ Vandy 29% 47% 68% 9% Total 47% 40% 70% 15%
And in 2nd halves: Opp 2pt Fg% Opp 3pt FG% Def Reb% Opp Turnover Rate Georgia 60% 17% 88% 18% Vandy 23% 29% 70% 17% @ Vandy 43% 27% 90% 11% Total 43% 24% 82% 15%
UK clamped down on opponent's 3 point shooting, and did a better job on the defensive glass, but it's not as dramatic of an effect as on offense.
It's Not Just About Nick
After the comeback against Vanderbilt on January 29th, John Calipari told the media that the big takeaway from the game is that UK needs Nick Richards. It seemed reasonable to say, given that Richards sat much of the first half with foul trouble and was dominant in the second half as UK made their huge comeback. But a closer look indicates that doesn't seem to quite cover it.
It's true that UK has been better with Nick Richards in the game. In SEC play, UK has an adjusted margin of +20 pts/100 poss with him in and +12 with him out.
During the bad first halves of the Bizarro games, UK had an adjusted margin of -3 pts/100 poss with Nick in and -29 with him out. Sure, they were better with him, but they weren't GOOD with him in. And during the great second halves, UK had an adjusted margin of +49/100 poss with Nick in and +82 with him out. So, there's not much evidence that Nick is the sole cause of these divergent halves, or even a significant one.
In fact, the evidence suggests that it is basically the entire team that turned up their performance in the second half. In the bad first halves, UK played 21 lineups; 13 were outscored. But in the great second halves, UK played 11 lineups with 2 outscored, and both were outscored by a measly 1 point. Very few lineups had success in first halves, but almost all of them did in the second halves.
Everyone Is Chipping In
When I showed the team stats earlier, you saw that UK is improving almost across the board. That improvement is coming from nearly every player getting significant time. 6 Wildcats have played at least 20% of the time in these great second halves, and UK is getting massive increases in production from almost all of them.
First, I'll treat UK's 3 guards (Hagans/Quickley/Maxey) as a unit since they all play at least 91% of the time in these second halves.
Pts/36 min 2pt Fg% 3pt Fg% Ast:TO Def Reb % % of shots 1st halves 34.8 35% 36% 1:1 30% 62% 2nd halves 49.1 46% 80% 4:1 40% 57%
In the second halves, UK's 3 key guards shoot much better (including 8-10 from 3!), basically erase their turnovers, chip in on rebounding, and even take a bit fewer shots.
Now let's see Nick Richards' transformation: Pts/36 min FG% Def Reb % Off Reb % Blocks/36 min % of shots 1st halves 10.0 40% 21% 7% 0.0 22% 2nd halves 25.6 74% 21% 14% 2.0 30%
He scuffled along in the first halves, but turned into a dominant post presence during the second halves.
The most dramatic change may be Nate Sestina: Pts/36 min eFG% Def Reb % Off Reb % Blocks/36 min % of shots 1st halves 3.4 33% 0% 0% 1.7 16% 2nd halves 14.2 56% 15% 13% 3.9 21%
In UK's awful first halves, Sestina shot often and poorly, and did not grab a single rebound. But when halftime ended, Sestina became a valuable contributor. He even led UK in blocks in these 3 Bizarro games, putting up 4 in 50 minutes, and chipped in 2-3 shooting on threes.
The only player without a dramatic transformation is EJ Montgomery: Pts/36 min eFG% Def Reb % Off Reb % Blocks/36 min % of shots 1st halves 6.7 44% 20% 8% 2.5 13% 2nd halves 10.3 100% 12% 16% 0.0 4%
He makes a small step up in scoring, thanks to 5-5 at the free throw line. His 100% eFG% is misleading, as it represents 2-2 shooting. EJ largely disappears on offense, save his hustling to snare offensive rebounds.
A Glimpse of What UK Could Be
These second halves offer a somewhat frustrating glimpse of how all of UK's various pieces could come together. If you look through all of these stats, you see a team firing on all cylinders. Guards scoring, shooting, and taking care of the ball. A star big man dominating the interior. A big man role player rebounding and stretching the floor. A team dominating its opponents thoroughly and consistently.
The frustrating part is that this has occurred so infrequently, and only when desperately needed. It's as if Calipari put up a bat signal at halftime, and a whole new team took the court. If there's a way to unleash this Kentucky team without falling behind to teams with losing records, I hope the coaching staff finds it. That would make for a memorable April in Atlanta.
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