Quick thoughts on UofL vs Virginia
Before Louisville takes on Virginia, I wanted to share a few quick thoughts on how the Cards match up with their recent tormentor. These Cavaliers aren’t at the same level as recent teams, but do have some strengths that can cause UofL problems. Without further ado, here’s what I see as the important factors about Virginia:
On Offense
Simply put, the Cavaliers are not good on offense. For example, they have a starting guard who takes over 3 three pointers per game and has hit 14% (Casey Morsell). Only their big man Mamadi Diakite is a consistent threat offensively, even from deep (40%). Virginia turns the ball over lot, which is very unusual for them. A major factor is that their point guard, Kihei Clark, is only 5’9” and vulnerable to physical defense. Virginia is also unusually bad (for them) late in the shot clock. They have a 38% eFG% after 20 seconds have elapsed, down from 50% last year. Clark in particular struggles, with a 40% eFG% late and only 17% at the rim; that’s a horrid number for a primary creator.
On Defense
The Cavaliers are still formidable on defense, rating #1 in KenPom’s defensive efficiency. Their strength is interior defense, with both Huff and Diakite blocking a lot of shots. Virginia’s defense is set up to force midrange shots, but that plays into one of UofL’s strengths. Nwora and Enoch in particular take a lot of midrange shots and convert a respectable percentage. If they can be effective in the midrange, Virginia will have to adjust their defense.
Overall
Virginia isn’t going to foul much, or draw fouls. The key to this game will be whether UofL’s creators can get good shots. Nwora’s length and shooting ability can be a huge plus, and David Johnson’s ability to overwhelm Kihei Clark (if matched against him) can help. If UofL is up to their usual standards on midrange shots, they should be able to win this fairly comfortably. Virginia’s main hope is that UofL is missing, and Diakite gets free for some open threes.
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