Shooters shoot...but which Cats get gun-shy?
Anyone who's ever picked up a basketball has felt the surge of confidence when the ball swishes through the net. It gives you a feeling like you want to keep going and see if you're ever going to miss. Inevitably, you're brought crashing back to earth when one of your next shots clanks off the rim.
Does this happen to players at the elite levels of college basketball too? Are they susceptible to the same ebbs and flows of confidence in their game that the rest of us know so well? Today I look at data around the Kentucky Wildcats and how some of their key players respond to making or missing shots.
The Guards Kentucky's 3 guards are all highly skilled offensively, but each fill a slightly different role in the offense. How do they each respond after they make or miss a shot? I looked at the 5 possessions immediately following made or missed threes to see how their offensive participation changes. First, does making or missing affect how likely they are to keep shooting?
Hagans is pretty steady, increasing his volume only after making two pointers. This may be driven by a desire to keep exploiting a weakness in the defense that led to the original made basket. Tyrese Maxey is almost the opposite, shooting less often after a missed two but pretty steady after other shots. This may be the opposite of Hagans, where Maxey doesn't want to keep challenging a defense at the rim if they've stopped him already. Quickley, however, clearly increases his shooting volume after he's made a shot (either a two or a three). Given his role as a more off-ball threat, his teammates may be feeding him the ball more when he's on a hot streak.
How does a make or a miss change their accuracy?
The first thing that catches your eye on this chart is that Hagans shoots much better after he misses a three. He's not a strong outside shooter, and this may be a case of Hagans recognizing his own poor shot selection and creating higher quality shots.
Maxey is remarkably steady for a freshman according to this data. Despite increasing his shot volume after every event except a missed two, his shooting accuracy doesn't seem to suffer.
The most unusual thing about Immanuel Quickley is that he seems to be less accurate in the possessions after making a shot. In other words, he's a bit of the opposite of what you'd think a hot hand would be. Quickley has an eFG% of 58% if it's been more than 5 possessions since he took a shot, but only 40% if he's taken a shot within the last 5 possessions. One theory could be that when Quickley takes shots, that causes the opposing defender to play closer attention to him. Quickley is not as dynamic of a creator, so he may not be able to create his own shots with so much attention. That's worth monitoring, and may help explain why UK has struggled so much when Hagans leaves the game...Quickley can't create in the same way at all.
How does this show up in their scoring?
Hagans is a steady and dependable scorer who doesn't get affected negatively when he misses shots. Maxey and Quickley depend more on the confidence from making shots to spur on their scoring.
UK's post bigs
I'll lump Nick Richards, EJ Montgomery, and Keion Brooks together since they all take two pointers almost exclusively.
Nick and EJ are pretty steady, not changing their shooting volume much, but Keion Brooks gets much more aggressive after hitting a shot. Brooks gets less playing time than the other two, so he may be pressing offensively to make a positive impact on the game. That's not unusual for a freshman, but it is notable that he is more likely to shoot after a make than Nick or EJ are at any point.
Both EJ and Keion are more accurate after they've made a shot. It's impressive that Keion is able to increase his volume and accuracy so much after making a shot. This could be a result of UK running more plays for him to get good shots if he has already hit one, or it could be a sign that he can take on a larger role in the offense. Nick is actually less accurate after making a shot, although he shoots a tremendous percentage either way. Similar to Hagans, Nick may have grown his confidence to the point where he can refocus and get a better shot after he's missed an opportunity.
Nick Richards is a tremendous offensive weapon regardless of whether he's making or missing shots; UK can depend on him to be a source of offense. EJ Montgomery is much more effective when he's got the confidence from making shots. Keion Brooks takes this to the extreme, becoming Kentucky's best scoring big man after making a shot but being much less effective after he's missed a shot.
The stretch big
Nate Sestina fits into a category all by himself. He doesn't play as much or shoot as much as the guards, but shoots from the outside much more often than the other bigs. How does he respond when he makes or misses?
Sestina doesn't shoot very often after making or missing twos. He is much more aggresive after taking threes, consistent with the role Kentucky is trying to use him in. He gets a bit more aggressive after making threes than after missing them, but then again who doesn't?
Oh my. Sestina is much more accurate after missing a shot than after making one. Some of the boost after missing twos may come from Sestina getting his own offensive rebounds, but it's a bit stunning how poorly he shoots following a made shot. Similar to Quickley, this could be a case of him getting more defensive attention that makes it harder for him to get quality shots.
The net result is that Sestina is actually a better scorer after missing shots than after making them. As a college basketball veteran, it's not unreasonable to think that he's figured out how to put a miss behind him and get a quality shot later. However, his poor output after making a three suggests that the role as a stretch big man may not be the best fit. Sestina doesn't seem to respond to long distance success very well, and he may not have the right mix of confidence and ability to thrive in that role.
There's another indicator that Sestina may not be thriving as a stretch big. He has 11 games this year where he's played more than 10 minutes and taken at least as many two pointers as three pointers (or more twos). In those 11 games, UK is +77 when he plays; in the other 8 games he's played UK is -1 when he plays. He also gets a higher percentage of rebounds in those games (offensive and defensive). Sestina seems to be a more productive player when he's allowed to operate in the paint.
UK's players have very different roles on offense, and it's instructive to see how they respond when they make or miss shots. Players like Immanuel Quickley and Keion Brooks are more effective when making shots; it may be worth the effort to keep feeding them if they're hitting. Nate Sestina appears to thrive much more as a post player than a stretch big man, and UK may want to reconsider his role. If UK can find the right mix to maximize each player, they could find some consistency this season.
I want to thank you for subscribing to my newsletter. At Hoops Insight, I hope to use data to find insights that reveal things you didn't realize about the Kentucky Wildcats. I'm using play-by-play data to track what's happening, who's doing it, and who is in the game, in order to show you things the box score can't. Check out my past newsletters in the Hoops Insight Archive, and read about the stats I like to use in my stats glossary.
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