Shooters shoot...but which Cardinals get gun-shy?
Anyone who's ever picked up a basketball has felt the surge of confidence when the ball swishes through the net. It gives you a feeling like you want to keep going and see if you're ever going to miss. Inevitably, you're brought crashing back to earth when one of your next shots clanks off the rim.
Does this happen to players at the elite levels of college basketball too? Are they susceptible to the same ebbs and flows of confidence in their game that the rest of us know so well? Today I look at data around the Louisville Cardinals and how some of their key players respond to making or missing shots.
The Veteran Guards
The first group I'll look at are the veteran guards: Darius Perry, Ryan McMahon, and Fresh Kimble. They all play between 21-25 minutes per game and take 5-6 shots per game. I'm going to look at the 5 possessions immediately following made or missed 2 pointers and three pointers. How do they respond?
Ryan McMahon is much more likely to take shots after he's made a three, while Fresh Kimble shoots more when he makes either twos or threes. Darius Perry is pretty steady, with a small bump from making threes. None of these players are very active in creating their own shots, so it's likely that either 1) their teammates are passing to them more often after seeing them hit shots or 2) they take and make more shots when defenses choose to leave them open. The only one of these players who's likely to get more attention after scoring is McMahon, and he's also probably the most likely for his teammates to try to get the ball if he's hitting shots. So we've seen these players shoot a bit more after making shots...but how accurate are they?
Wow! Darius Perry is a much better shooter after he's made shots! Ryan McMahon's eFg% after making or missing 2's is a bit misleading because he shoots so few, but it appears that the threat of him driving helps give him more space to shoot threes. Kimble is an interesting case in that he shoots more accurately after he misses shots. We already saw that he shoots more often after making shots, though. It appears that he gets more selective after missing shots and only shoots again when open, leading to higher percentages. The same thing seems to happen after McMahon makes or misses threes; he shoots more often when he makes but hits a lower percentage. That's an indicator that he is taking some "heat check" shots when he's feeling it.
How does this all shake out in terms of scoring?
Both Perry and McMahon are much more likely to score in the 5 possessions following a made shot. Kimble is much steadier, although that's because he either takes few, high-quality shots or more, low-quality shots. This data indicates that Ryan McMahon is likely to be a very streaky scorer, which is probably consistent with his reputation. He's also more likely to take more shots when he's hit some already. He averages 5 3PA per game, and has taken more than 5 in 8 games this season. He's 30-57 in those 8 games from three (53%), has hit at least 2 threes in all 8 games, and has hit 40% or more in 6 of those 8 games.
The Veteran Wings
Next we'll look at Jordan Nwora and Dwayne Sutton, UofL's veteran wings. They each play over 30 mpg, although Nwora shoots more than twice as often as Sutton. Let's see how they react in the 5 possessions following a made or missed shot:
Nwora gets slightly more aggressive after making shots, while Sutton has very little difference. Nwora's increased aggressiveness may come from exploiting favorable matchups, since he has the green light to create his own shot. Sutton is much less likely to shoot in the possessions following a made three. This is likely because he shoots around the rim more often than other non-big Cardinals, so he likely is taking more three pointers when he's asked to spread the floor more. That takes him out of his main scoring role in the paint.
Do Nwora or Sutton see a change in accuracy after making or missing?
There's not as drastic of a difference as there were for the guards. Both Nwora and Sutton do get more accurate after making two pointers, but that may be due to them getting more shots at the rim against poor defenses...they are more likely to have scored and keep scoring against those types of teams. Neither player seems as susceptible to "heat checks" as the guards, perhaps reflecting their experience in carrying an offensive load. Nwora and Sutton don't really need to moderate their shot volume up or down or hunt for better shots, because their role in UofL's offense is largely consistent.
How does this all result in scoring?
As you'd expect from the previous two charts, Nwora scores more often after making shots as he gets a bit more aggressive but maintains his accuracy. Sutton is pretty steady whether making or missing shots, but even taking threes for him is a sign that he's going to be a bit less involved in scoring as he moves away from the paint.
The Freshman
Lastly, I want to look at the data for David Johnson. He's taken on an increasingly important role in recent games, although his sample size is still small. He's only 4-10 on threes, so I'll ignore those for now and focus on how he responds to making or missing twos.
Johnson does get more likely to shoot when he's made a shot recently. Because Johnson has more of a role as a creator, he may be capitalizing on openings provided by the defense. How does this affect his accuracy?
It looks like he's a bit susceptible to "heat checks" or forcing some bad shots when he sees an opening. This is not uncommon for freshmen, especially ones who are able to create tough shots with their athleticism. This also lines up with some of his issues with turnovers, which can be caused by trying to do a bit too much. Clearly, he's a very capable scorer (and passer), and some further development should help even this out.
Johnson scores much more after making shots, largely due to his increased shot volume. This is useful to Louisville when he's hitting shots, but can muck up the offense a bit when he's not. UofL has been a bit less consistent on offense since his role increased, although it's probably worth it to let him develop into a potential primary scorer.
All told, Louisville has some fairly well-defined offensive roles among their perimeter players. Their veteran guards are allowed to get more aggressive if they've got a hot hand, but otherwise take a back seat and look for high quality shots. Nwora and Sutton are the steadying forces who know where their offense comes from, can exploit holes in the defense, and don't get flustered if the shots aren't falling. Johnson is the wild card who can go on a heater (like against Duke) or bog down the offense at times (like against Florida State). All the pieces play a role, and UofL has a number of sources of offense from their perimeter players.
Thanks for reading my newsletter. For a primer on the stats I like to use, click here: http://hoopsinsight.com/stats-glossary. If you'd like to take a look at previous newsletters I've sent, check out my archive. If you have any questions, want to argue a point, or have some feedback, feel free to reach out via email at sean@hoopsinsight.com, or on Twitter @hoopsinsights. If you liked this, let me know as well, and tell your friends to subscribe at www.hoopsinsight.com.
You can forward this to others, but please ask them to subscribe as well so I can keep track of who's enjoying my insight and analysis.