UK vs Auburn Preview: What's the Tigers' big weakness?
My Kentucky articles are usually focused on helping fans understand more about the Wildcats, but today I thought I'd try something different. I turned my lens to their opponent, the Auburn Tigers, and combed through all the same data I usually do for Kentucky. I found that they have good balance, an effective offense, and a solid defense. I also found that there is a major weakness that was hidden somewhat by their glitzy 18-2 record. Today, I offer up my analysis on the Auburn Tigers.
Auburn Tigers stats profile through Jan 31, 2020
Overall Performance:
Auburn is 18-2 on the season, and ranks 33rd in KenPom's ratings (1 spot behind Kentucky). They haven't played a very tough schedule this season, with only 3 games against top 50 teams (and a 1-2 record in them). They don't have any bad losses this season, although they do have narrow wins over Vanderbilt and Ole Miss (who both rank outside the top 100 in KenPom).
Style of Play:
Auburn still takes a lot of threes, but fewer than last season, and they don't make a lot
This Auburn team is stylistically similar to last year's, but not quite as effective. While last season they took 50% of their shots from 3, that's down to 43% this season. Auburn simply has not been very good shooting the three this season. Last season, Auburn ranked 21st nationally at 38%; this season they rank 265th at 31%. Last season nearly every regular who shot threes for Auburn hit at least 35%; this season only Anfernee McLemore and backup guard Jamal Johnson are that accurate. Much of this is caused by losing key contributors like Jared Harper, Bryce Brown, and Chuma Okeke, but returnees Samir Doughty and J'Von McCormick have also seen their shooting drop sharply. Doughty in particular was a good shooter from three last season (44% on 101 attempts) but has dropped off this season (30% on 111 attempts). He seems to suffer from more attention as the focal point of the offense this year, particularly running their fast break. He hit 59% of his transition threes last season, as he functioned as a spot-up shooter, but he hits only 31% this season with more on-ball responsibilities.
Auburn likes out get out in transition
30% of their shots come in transition (21st nationally). Their shooting has been poor though, with their 52% effective FG% ranking 214th. The issue is that Auburn is bad at threes in transition, hitting only 26%. Of their 4 main shooters (Doughty, McCormick, Okoro, Purifoy), only Purifoy is better than 35% on transition threes, and Okoro is a disastrous 1-15. Doughty was much better last season at 17-29 (59%), so he may have ability...but the others don't have a significant track record of success.
Auburn blocks shots but doesn't force turnovers
Last season Auburn was aggressive defensively, going for blocks and steals and getting them at a high rate. This season they are still effective at blocking shots, but they are below average at forcing turnovers. With Austin Wiley playing more inside, they allow a lower FG% at the rim, but opponents get to the rim often against Auburn. They allow the 21st highest percentage of shots at the rim, but block enough of them to be fairly effective.
Key Lineups/Players:
Auburn plays 2 key lineups a ton
Auburn relies heavily on their 5 seniors, plus stud freshman Isaac Okoro. about 1/3 of their possessions are given to just 2 lineups, and all of their top 5 lineups have been effective this season:
Auburn doesn't suffer a lot when key players sit
None of Auburn's top 6 players have a particularly outsized impact on the team's success, as measured by on/off court splits. Auburn does have less success when their starting guards (McCormick and Doughty) sit, but they play such heavy minutes that their off-court sample isn't that useful. There aren't any particular players whose foul trouble would seem to really bother the Tigers.
Going through the data on Auburn, I did find one significant weakness...
Auburn has been bad at maintaining leads late in close games
I looked at Auburn's performance in the last 10 minutes and overtime when they had a single-digit lead, and the numbers are shocking. Auburn has 123 possessions that fit this criteria, and they've been outscored by 25 points by opponents! I wrote about UK's performance in these situations this week and found that UK was +28 in 175 similar possessions (before Vanderbilt).
Auburn has had 11 games where they held a single digit lead with 10 minutes or less remaining, and they have been outscored in 8 of them. They haven't lost any of these games, because their two losses were blowouts, but they have consistently let teams hang around. Vanderbilt, Iowa State, Saint Louis, and South Alabama all were able whittle away at Auburn's leads and all lost by 6 or fewer points. The issue is two-fold:
Auburn is a bad free throw shooting team and they get worse late in games
They hit 67% of their free throws on the season, but only 63% (51-81) when leading late in games. By comparison, UK hits 82% of their free throws in the same spots.
Auburn is horrific at three point shooting late
They seem to get a little gunshy, with only 35% of their shots coming from deep late, and they only hit 24% (7-29). McCormick, Doughty, and Okoro are the main culprits, going 2-12 from three late. Danjel Purifoy takes on an outsized role late in close games, taking 34% of Auburn's shots when he's in (up from 20% overall). He has taken 12 3's himself late, as many as Doughty/McCormick/Okoro combined, and is a passable 4-12. He has only taken 3 two points in these spots, oddly enough...so his shot chart late in games is the reverse of the rest of the team.
Opponents are hitting threes late on Auburn
Auburn's opponents are 16-37 on threes late in games when the Tigers have a single-digit lead, for 43%. During the first 30 minutes of games, opponents only hit 29% from deep...so it seems like Auburn is struggling to find the shooters on defense.
I went back and watched film of Auburn vs Vanderbilt to see what is causing these issues. Auburn led 73-64 with 4:15 left, but let Vandy get within 1 before Auburn prevailed by 4 points. On offense, Auburn slows way down and looks to get the ball inside to use their size and athleticism. Late in the shot clock they will have guards create, but they mostly run post-ups and threes only come off of double teams. On defense, Auburn continued to press and gamble for steals (which they don't get very often), which gave dribblers some space. Auburn also struggles in pick and roll switches, frequently allowing pull up threes.
Auburn is a very good team, but is not really close to what they were last season. Their biggest strengths are size and athleticism, which they use to collect rebounds, score inside, and draw fouls. Kentucky largely can match up with that, although the Wildcats have not been very good rebounding and have fouled a good bit lately. Auburn has repeatedly barely held off inferior opponents, while UK has largely prevailed in close games. I think UK's free throw shooting will be a big factor late to help the Cats. UK may not exploit Auburn's weakness defending pick-and-roll threes, since the Cats don't tend to take many, but Tyrese Maxey should have some opportunities to hit big shots late. I feel more confident about the Cats pulling out this win than the Tigers, but it's going to take another strong clutch effort.
I want to thank you for subscribing to my newsletter. At Hoops Insight, I hope to use data to find insights that reveal things you didn't realize about the Kentucky Wildcats. I'm using play-by-play data to track what's happening, who's doing it, and who is in the game, in order to show you things the box score can't. Check out my past newsletters in the Hoops Insight Archive, and read about the stats I like to use in my stats glossary.
If you have any questions about things I'm saying, the data behind it, or if you just want to debate a point, feel free to contact me on Twitter at @hoopsinsights or email at sean@hoopsinsight.com. I'd love your feedback on the newsletter and how I can improve. Thanks, and I hope you enjoy my work.