The Cats need to Close
The Wildcats haven't exactly been ferocious when they hold a lead lately. They've let several opponents mount comebacks late, raising the collective blood pressure of the Commonwealth. How bad is it? How should the coaching staff address it? I look at the data to find some answers.
The first thing to know is that UK is not significantly worse in the final 10 minutes + overtime than in the opening 30 minutes. UK has an adjusted margin of +18 pts/100 poss during the opening 30 minutes, and +16 pts/100 poss during the final 10 minutes + overtime (excluding garbage time). Given that each 10 minutes equals about 17 possessions, this difference would show up as 2 points every 6 games. That's not much.
However, UK does have very different results during the final 10 minutes depending on the score at the time:
UK does a good job of outscoring opponents when they trail by single digits, and also when they lead by single digits. If you adjust for opponent strength, the Wildcats' adjusted margin per 100 possessions is nearly identical in these situations (+32 when trailing, +30 when leading). But when the score is outside of 10 points, UK struggles.
UK has had very little experience this season trailing by 10 points, but they have led by 10 points in a number of games. As most fans will tell you, UK has struggled to increase their leads in these spots. Many of these games moved from "Up by 10+ points" to "Up by <10 points", and ended with UK winning by single digits.
If you look at the table, the issue isn't really UK's offense. When the score is outside 10 points, UK still shoots well and commits relatively few turnovers. The issue is on defense, and it's stunning. The stats above show UK opponents shooting better, UK getting fewer defensive rebounds, and opponents committing fewer turnovers, which all tie back to effort. It seems like UK is easing up with a lead, and it's coming back to bite them. The most shocking statistic is that UK opponents have gone 19-19 on shots in the paint in the situations. So late in games when UK has a lead of 10+ points, the Wildcats basically stop guarding the paint. It's not threes, where opponents are shooting just 26%...it's in the paint!
The odd thing is it's the same lineups who do so well in other spots that are letting UK down. For example, the lineup of Hagans/Maxey/Quickley/Brooks/Richards is +27 in 77 possessions this season, but -8 in 10 possessions when UK leads by 10+ pts. It's UK's usual big men who are giving up these makes in the paint, too; Richards and/or Montgomery have been in for 72 of the 76 qualifying possessions and all 19 of the opponent paint shots.
The Wildcats have shown they can close games out, but they keep running into issues with effort when they feel like a game is out of reach. Too many opponents have shown that they can mount a comeback, however, and they are doing so by attacking one of UK's presumed strengths in defending the paint. The good news is, UK should be able to fix it...and the coaching staff should drill into the team that they need to be tough guarding the basket until the final whistle.
I want to thank you for subscribing to my newsletter. At Hoops Insight, I hope to use data to find insights that reveal things you didn't realize about the Kentucky Wildcats. I'm using play-by-play data to track what's happening, who's doing it, and who is in the game, in order to show you things the box score can't. Check out my past newsletters in the Hoops Insight Archive, and read about the stats I like to use in my stats glossary.
If you have any questions about things I'm saying, the data behind it, or if you just want to debate a point, feel free to contact me on Twitter at @hoopsinsights or email at sean@hoopsinsight.com. I'd love your feedback on the newsletter and how I can improve. Thanks, and I hope you enjoy my work.