David Johnson is the future for UofL...but is it the future yet?
As the calendar turned over to 2020, David Johnson was no doubt hoping to take a leap forward in the leap year. He had registered double digit minutes only twice as a Cardinal, and had played less than a minute in the rivalry game against Kentucky. His old acquaintance with the bench was soon forgot, however, and he has played at least 11 minutes in all 7 games in 2020 and 20+ minutes in 3 games. As he's taken on a bigger role, how has it impacted the Cardinals? What should be expected going forward? In this edition of Hoops Insight, I look at David Johnson.
What You Should Know: David Johnson has played double digit minutes 9 times for Louisville. In those 9 games, he has 2 games with a strong +/- (Eastern Kentucky, Duke) and 1 game with a very negative +/- (Florida State). However, UofL has had a positive +/- in 8 of the 9 games when Johnson sat on the bench, and 5 of those were 10 points or more:
As a positive note, Johnson has not had a negative +/- in the 6 games since his disastrous outing against Florida State. On a per-possession basis, UofL has only been much better with Johnson against Duke.
What Is Happening? We can look at the underlying stats with and without Johnson to see where the difference lies. We'll just look at the games listed above so that UofL's performance without Johnson isn't influenced by games where he barely played.
Louisville's offense is pretty consistent with or without Johnson, although the Cardinals have turned the ball over more when he plays. Their defense has been notably worse with Johnson, allowing better shooting inside and outside the arc. Opponents have turned it over more when facing Johnson. Overall, UofL has been twice as good when Johnson sits, as measured by adjusted margin per 100 possessions.
The +/- table we saw before showed that Johnson's impact has been better since Florida State, however. Let's look at UofL's stats just in the last 6 games:
Hey, that's better! Louisville's offense has shot better with Johnson, and the turnover problems have been controlled somewhat. UofL's defense has also improved when Johnson plays. All told, UofL now has a higher adjusted margin with Johnson than without (largely thanks to the strong performance against Duke). Interestingly, UofL's performance without Johnson hasn't been drastically different. The Cards have shot a bit worse and defended a bit worse, but the difference in the last 6 games has been their performance with Johnson in the game.
Johnson's individual stats have improved in the last 6 games as well.
Per-36 minutes, Johnson has scored much more while also clearly handling the ball more. His shooting has improved due to better marksmanship from the outside. Interestingly enough, Johnson has not dramatically increased his shot frequency. During UofL's first 14 games, Johnson took 22% of UofL's shots when he played. Over the past 6, he's taken 24% of the Cardinals' shots when he plays.
Clearly, UofL's coaching staff believes that their team cannot reach their potential this season without David Johnson playing a significant role. Interestingly enough, Johnson's rise to prominence has coincided with decreased effectiveness for Jordan Nwora and Steven Enoch. As Johnson has taken a larger role in the offense, Nwora and Enoch have struggled to score in the paint:
Over the first 14 games, Nwora took 5.5 shots in the paint per game and hit 70% while Enoch took 4.5 shots in the paint and hit 71%
Over the last 6 games, Nwora is taking 4 shots in the paint per game and hitting 42% while Enoch is taking 5 shots in the paint per game and hitting 45%
Johnson's increased aggressiveness may be stifling the rhythym of Nwora and Enoch, and keeping them from getting the significant touches to which they are accustomed. In order for the Cardinals to be the best version of themselves, there will need to be a greater balance achieved among these three. . It is worth keeping an eye to see if these three can form a cohesive threat, or if their effectiveness comes at the expense of one another.
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