What are UK's Best Lineups?
It's a beautiful thing when a specific five man unit turns into a consistent force of destruction, able to stake leads in game after game. Identifying the best lineups to play is a big part of basketball, college or pro. As the season chugs along, rotations get shorter and the cream rises to the top...at least in theory. As Kentucky nears the final month of regular season play, have the best groupings identified themselves? Should Kentucky manage their rotation differently? As I always do here at Hoops Insight, I'm going to take you deep into the data and show you something interesting.
Three Lineups Stand Out
In order to identify UK's best lineups, we need to have some initial criteria. First, I'll establish a minimum threshold of 50 possessions played together so far. It seems fair to assume that UK's best lineup is probably among those that have played a reasonable amount of time together, and in my experience that is a decent enough sample size to at least directionally evaluate a lineup. 7 UK lineups have played at least 50 possessions, so we'll start with those.
Second, we'll begin judging them according to adjusted scoring margin per possession. This events out differences in total playing time, and adjusts for opponent strength. Using this, 4 lineups stand out. They are, sorted by total possessions:
Hagans/Quickley/Maxey/Montgomery/Richards (174 possessions, +0.33 adjusted/poss)
Hagans/Quickley/Maxey/Brooks/Richards (69 possessions, +0.30 adjusted/poss)
Hagans/Maxey/Brooks/Richards/Montgomery (57 possessions, +0.36 adjusted/poss)
Hagans/Quickley/Whitney/Sestina/Richards (53 possessions, +0.26 adjusted/poss)
So there are our initial 4 candidates for UK's best lineup, based on 2 criteria. Before we go any further, however, I'm going to cut one. Lineup #4 doesn't belong with the others for 3 reasons. First, they have achieved their results against some of the weakest teams on UK's schedule; even though adjust margin accounts for opponent strength, they haven't posted a positive scoring margin against anyone ranked better than 261st in KenPom. Second, their scoring margin is inflated by their 14-14 showing at the free throw line; if they had gone 10-14 instead they wouldn't be on this list. Third, Kahlil Whitney has left the team and it's not very insightful or actionable for UK's best lineup to feature someone who isn't playing for them anymore. So, that leaves us with 3 lineups.
3 Different Processes, A Common Result
All three of these lineups have posted strong adjusted margins, and all 4 have done so against solid competition. All played heavily against Louisville, and have featured regularly against SEC opponents. Let's look at some of their underlying key stats to see how they do it:
Hagans/Quickley/Maxey/Montgomery/Richards
55% eFG%; 49% opponent eFG%
38% Off Reb%, 74% Def Reb%
20% turnover rate; 20% opponent turnover rate
22% foul rate; 28% opponent foul rate
Hagans/Quickley/Maxey/Brooks/Richards
54% eFG%; 41% opponent eFG%
30% Off Reb%, 68% Def Reb
16% turnover rate; 17% opponent turnover rate
23% foul rate; 39% opponent foul rate
Hagans/Maxey/Brooks/Richards/Montgomery
49% eFG%; 33% opponent eFG%
24% Off Reb%, 73% Def Reb%
23% turnover rate; 16% opponent turnover rate
21% foul rate; 28% opponent foul rate
Although all 3 lineups produced similar strong adjusted margins, they get there in very different ways. #1 shoots well but can't defend, rebounds well but doesn't draw fouls, and forces turnovers but commits them. #2 shoots and defends well but can't rebound, doesn't force turnovers, but draws fouls. #3 can't shoot but defends great, can't get an offensive rebound and turns it over too much, but has the best adjusted margin.
There's nothing about the underlying stats for any of these lineups that looks wildly unsustainable. Lineup #3's great opponent eFG% is a bit suspect, but it's driven first and foremost by strong defense in the paint. That lineup allows opponents to hit 64% of their shots there, while #2 allows 76% and lineup #1 allows a whopping 86%.
Each of these lineups has distinct strengths and weaknesses, but nothing about their underlying stats points to any of them being drastically better than the others. We'll have to look elsewhere.
At Their Best Against The Best
Sometimes lineups will have great stats because they play a lot against backups. Outscoring a lineup that's heavy on bench players is not a bad thing, but it's not a good sign if a lineup only does well against bench players. Let's look at how our 3 standouts do when matched up against 4 or 5 opposing starters, and when they match up against 3 or fewer:
Each of these lineups has largely maintained their strong performance when playing against opponents' starting lineups. None has inflated their scoring margin by beating up on backups; in fact, Lineup #2 has actually been much better against starters than backups!
We can't strongly differentiate between these lineups based on their performance against opposing starters. But maybe these lineups have built their scoring margin with a strong performance against 1 or 2 opponents? Let's see how consistent they've been in their performances.
Getting It Done Every Time
These 3 lineups have combined to play 10+ possessions 14 times (8 for #1, 3 each for #2 and #3). They have outscored their opponent in 11 of those 14 games (6 of 8 for #1, 2 of 3 for #2, 3 of 3 for #3). Of the 3 times they failed to outscore their opponent, these lineups posted a -1 and 2 +0's. In 14 combined occasions playing 10 or more possessions, they have been outscored a grand total of once, by 1 point (by Arkansas against lineup #1). That is phenomenal consistency!
It appears we can't reasonably call any one of these lineups significantly better than the others....and I think that's actually a great sign. Instead of trying to pick out UK's single best lineup, I've identified three different lineups that all play at an extremely high level. Each has an adjusted margin of +0.30/poss or better. For reference, Kansas sits atop KenPom's rankings with a rating that equates to +0.3051/poss. UK has 3 of their most played lineups who can all match or exceed that performance.
There's something even better about this, however. If you look at the composition of these 3 lineups, you'll notice they feature various combinations of the same 6 players: Hagans, Quickley, Maxey, Brooks, Richards, and Montgomery. UK can make 6 distinct lineups with these players, and 3 of them stand out as being a) played often and b) very successful. However, it's not like the other 3 combinations have laid an egg. A 4th lineup featuring these core 6 players narrowly missed being on my list. Hagans/Quickley/Maxey/Brooks/Montgomery has posted an adjusted margin of +0.73 points/possession, but they've only played 39 possessions. This group has played together in 8 games and has been outscored only once (by Arkansas by 3 points).
A 6 Man Rotation?
A 6 man rotation of Hagans/Quickley/Maxey/Brooks/Richards/Montgomery looks like it would be absolutely devastating to UK's opponents. UK has 4 different lineups of these players which have received at least 25 possessions, and they rank #1, #2, #3, and #4 among all UK lineups with 25 or more possessions played. For the season, this 6 man rotation has played 360 possessions and outscored opponents by +103 points...that's an adjusted margin of +0.37. For reference again, Kansas leads the nation at +0.3051. UK has a 6 man rotation that has played about 1/4 of the season and is substantially better than the #1 team according to KenPom. That's a mighty weapon.
Secretly, this group has been powering Kentucky for much of the season. They have had 1 occasion all season where this core 6 man rotation played more than 6 possessions together and was outscored: against Lamar, they were -1 in 16 poss due to 6 turnovers and Lamar posting a 70% eFG%. Every other time they have played more than 6 possessions, this 6 man rotation has outscored UK's opponent! The data is screaming out that UK should shorten their rotation, focus on these 6 guys to carry them, and use Sestina and Juzang in limited spots. Obviously fatigue, foul trouble, and injuries can complicate things, but the numbers make it very clear; UK is elite when they play their 6 man core.
I want to thank you for subscribing to my newsletter. At Hoops Insight, I hope to use data to find insights that reveal things you didn't realize about the Kentucky Wildcats. I'm using play-by-play data to track what's happening, who's doing it, and who is in the game, in order to show you things the box score can't. Check out my past newsletters in the Hoops Insight Archive, and read about the stats I like to use in my stats glossary.
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