Duke Scouting Report: What should Cards fans watch for?
For this issue of Hoops Insight, I wanted to change things up a bit if you'll bear with me. Instead of focusing my analysis on Louisville, I'll turn my attention to their opponent on Saturday. How do the Duke Blue Devils like to play? What are their key lineups? Where are some weak spots? Without further ado, let's take a look at everyone's least favorite team...
Duke Stats Profile through Jan 15, 2020
Duke's Style
On offense, Duke does a great job of getting to the rim and rank 11th nationally in % of shots there. They don't shoot threes frequently, ranking 306th, but they do shoot them well, ranking 41st in 3P%. They don't get out in transition very often, and have a below average eFG% in transition. Rather, they are excellent at executing in halfcourt, ranking 9th in eFG% in non-transition situations. Duke actually has a higher eFG% in halfcourt than in transition, largely because they are poor at 3 pointers in transition. In the halfcourt, Duke hits 40% of its threes. Duke also ranks as one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the nation, further bolstering their halfcourt effectiveness.
Defensively, Duke allows opponent to get to the rim (5th highest % of opp shots there) but limits opponent shooting there. Duke is 25th nationally in % of shots blocked at the rim. All of their interior players (Carey, Hurt, Delaurier, White) are effective shot blockers, and Duke will funnel shot attempts into them. The Blue Devils are aggressive at contesting shots in the midrange and three point range, discouraging these. They allow the 6th fewest 3 point attempts, and opponents hit only 30% of them. Duke is effective at limiting transition opportunities, allowing few and allowing a low eFg% on them.
Key Lineups
Duke's most common lineup has been Tre Jones, Cassius Stanley, Wendell Moore, Matthew Hurt, and Vernon Carey, but that won't play Saturday due to Moore's injury. Duke has rotated Alex O'Connell, Joey Baker, and Jordan Goldwire in his place. Over the last 2 games, Jack White has overtaken Matthew Hurt.
Over the last 3 games, Duke has been more effective when Jack White replaces Matthew Hurt to play alongside the Jones/Stanley/Carey trio. Duke has shot well with these lineups and either Hurt or White, but have almost completely avoided turnovers when playing Jack White. This doesn't feel very sustainable, however, given that White is a big man and has a high turnover rate himself.
Potential Weaknesses
Over these last 3 games without Moore, the lineups which have performed well have shot the lights out, and lineups who have performed poorly have turned the ball over. The most played lineup for Duke in these 3 games has been Jones/Stanley/Baker/Hurt/Carey, and they have been outscored by 2 points in 45 possessions. While they have posted a 58% eFG% compared to 44% for opponents, they've also turned it over on 24% of their possessions. This has been a season-long issue for Duke as their 5 worst lineups by scoring margin per possession all turn it over on 20% or more of their possessions.
Despite Duke's blocked shot prowess, it appears their interior defense actually starts with their perimeter defenders. Wendell Moore in particular is a 6'6", 215 strongman who can effectively pester drivers and allow Duke's big men to get blocks in help defense. Without Moore, more drivers are getting free near the basket and exposing the limitations of Duke's interior D. Matthew Hurt in particular is fairly ineffective inside; Duke allows opponents to hit 66% of their paint shots with him in the game and Moore out. By comparison, Javin DeLaurier looks like a standout defender. Opponents are hitting only 39% of their paint shots with him in and Moore out.
What It Means for UofL
It's not a wildly hot take to say this given the Clemson loss, but I think Duke is pretty vulnerable. They have not played well in the last 3 games despite some unconscious shooting from 3, largely due to poor rebounding and a lot of turnovers. UofL doesn't usually force turnovers, but they are 5-0 when forcing turnovers more frequently than they commit them. Duke has been forcing a ton of turnovers lately, and UofL has been vulnerable against teams that force a lot (Florida St. , Pittsburgh, Texas Tech). If the Cards can keep the turnovers somewhat under control (say, fewer than 15) they will be in a great position.
Duke tends to allow opponents to get to the rim, but forces them into a lot of misses. UofL doesn't tend to get to the rim very often, but shoots very well when they get there. A benefit for UofL is that the players who get to the rim tend to be taller guys (Nwora, Enoch, Sutton, Williams) as opposed to smaller guards. If UofL can look to get these players (especially Nwora) driving to the rim, they may be able to finish. The absence of Moore will be big, as he is a natural option to guard Nwora and Sutton. Javin DeLaurier is Duke's best rim protector, but only plays about 15 minutes per game; Nwora and Sutton should be able to score inside when he's out. Bench players like Samuel Williamson and David Johnson may also be able to exploit this, given their relative size for their positions.
With Moore' absence, Duke is able to put 4 shooters on the court around either Carey or DeLaurier, but they haven't really committed to a more perimeter based offense. Only 31% of their shots attempts are 3's, slightly up from their average of 30% for the season. This is despite the fact that Duke is shooting a ridiculous 49% on threes over the last 3 games. This feels like UofL's hot shooting start to the season in that it's probably not sustainable. If Duke comes back to earth a bit more from deep, they could be in trouble this Saturday since shooting has been their biggest asset over the past 3 games.
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