Can UK Still Be Great With a Guard on the Bench?
Kentucky is unusually blessed this year to have 3 guards who can all score, handle the ball, and defend.
What You Should Know: Over the last 8 games, Kentucky has played 3 guard lineups for 358 possessions and 2 guard lineups for 179. But while UK has outscored opponents by 84 points when playing with 3 guards, the Wildcats have actually been outscored by 10 points when playing with just 2 guards at a time. Whereas UK has outscored opponents in 7 of the 8 games with 3 guards, they've only done so in 2 of the 8 games when playing 2 guards. Even as the time they've given 2 guards as dwindled, UK has been unable to avoid losing leads:
Vs UAB: -7 in 30 poss
Vs Fairleigh Dickinson: +7 in 17 poss
Vs Georgia Tech: -1 in 11 poss
Vs Utah: -6 in 34 poss
Vs Ohio State: -4 in 16 poss
Vs Louisville: -5 in 17 poss
Vs Missouri: +6 in 37 poss
Vs Georgia: +0 in 17 poss
What Is Happening? 2 guard lineups are just not an effective use of UK's best players. Kentucky's 3 guards are, at least, 3 of their 4 best players. On offense, UK doesn't have any small forwards who present much of a threat; certainly not from three point range at least. On defense, UK's guards are all terrific defenders; most college teams also don't play big, dynamic wings who could really do damage against them. 3 guard lineups have been better in nearly every single stat than 2 guard lineups, as they:
Shoot better from 2 (55% to 50%)
Shoot better from 3 (31% to 30%)
Turn the ball over on fewer possessions (16% vs 19%)
Foul on fewer possessions (22% vs 28%)
Rebound more opponent misses (72% vs 70%)
Allow fewer made 3s (30% vs 31%)
Force turnovers on more possessions (20% vs 17%)
The only stats where 2 guard lineups have an advantage are offensive rebounding (35% vs 34%) and opponent 2 point shooting (43% vs 47%). 3 guard lineups are just better all around.
There are 2 types of 2 guard lineups for Kentucky who have had some success, but each one gives reason to doubt whether that success can sustain.
In the last 2 games, Kentucky has played 34 possessions with 2 guards, 2 bigs, and Keion Brooks at small forward. UK is +10 in those 34 possessions. The underlying stats are not impressive, however. UK has a 37% eFG% in these possessions, and opponents have posted the same. UK has forced turnovers on 24% of possessions, but committed one on 21% of their own. The rebounding for these lineups is not much better than UK's season average. These lineups have outscored opponents at the free throw line. UK is 10-12 on free throws with these lineups, and opponents are 0-2. While drawing free throws is a skill, they hadn't been especially good at doing so during the previous 12 games. Prior to the last 2 games, these lineups were only +1 in 74 possessions and had similarly underwhelming stats. Unless these groups have unlocked the secret to drawing free throws suddenly, they are unlikely to provide much of a boost for UK.
There is another type of 2 guard lineup that had quite a bit of success this season. Lineups with 2 guards, Kahlil Whitney, and Nate Sestina & Nick Richards up front are +42 in 124 possessions this season. This group played heavily in UK's first 6 games this season and did well, posting a +46 in 116 possessions. They didn't play again until January 4th, and have put up only a -4 in 8 possessions in the 2 SEC games. However, they have a positive plus/minus in every one of UK's first 6 games, including +5 in 17 poss vs Michigan State and +3 in 25 vs Evansville. They were basically the only reason UK was outscoring teams in those first 6 games, as UK was +3 in 136 possessions when anyone else played.
This group has some solid underlying stats, particularly in 3 categories: they rebound very well, commit very few fouls, and allow a low eFG%. There are some interesting factors driving these. First, the rebounding is due entirely to Nick Richards and Nate Sestina becoming absolute beasts. Richards collects 21% of opponent misses and 12% of UK's misses, up from 16% and 10% for the season. Sestina grabs 22% of opponent misses, up from 15% for the season. Whitney has filled in capably as a perimeter defender alongside UK's guards, and each Wildcat has fouled much less frequently in these lineups. Kentucky's guards, along with Whitney, have limited opponents' eFG% by clamping down on transition opportunities. Opponents have an eFG% of only 28% on transition shots against this group, and watching the tape you see an aggressiveness in closing in on the ball in transition. Whitney in particular seems to hunt for blocks; while this does leave UK vulnerable to giving up transition rebounds, his size and athleticism does seem to concern opposing ballhandlers.
These lineups do have some concerns, however. Most notably, a substantial portion of their time together came against poor teams. Whitney in particular had moments where he overwhelmed less athletic opponents, but he has looked lost in recent playing time. Whitney also didn't contribute much positive in the box score. His rebounding, which has been poor all year, is virtually non-existent when he plays small forward. He also shot more often in these lineups, taking 19% of UK's shots despite having an eFG% of only 38%. His shots are at the expense of Nate Sestina, who took only 9% of UK's shots in these lineups; Sestina functioned almost exclusively as a spot-up shooter, with 77% of hit shots coming from three point range in these groups.
What Does This Mean for UK? It's troubling that UK has yet to find 2 guard lineups who can help the team win. UK really needs at least one of Whitney, Brooks, or Johnny Juzang to be able to capably fill in for one of their top 3 guards, even if it's just a few minutes of rest each game. UK is vulnerable to foul trouble or injury to one of their top guards, and it could get ugly quickly if UK is forced to play 2 guards for a significant amount of time.
I think it's worth UK giving a shot to lineups with 2 of Hagans/Maxey/Quickley, Whitney at small forward, and Sestina + Richards up front. While these lineups beat up on poor teams, there are 3 reasons I think they might be UK's best option:
1) Despite the poor level of competition early, these were basically the only lineups beating up on the opposition, and they did it consistently
2) They didn't just beat up on bench lineups. These groups played mostly against 4 or 5 opposing starters, and were actually better against them than against lineups with 3 or fewer.
3) Each possible combo of these lineups (with Hagans/Maxey, Hagans/Quickley, or Maxey/Quickley) consistently had success. This means that if these lineups are viable, they can work regardless of which of UK's guards sits out.
If UK can just eliminate some of the negative possessions with 2 guards, this team could discover that extra bit of consistency that can lift them to an SEC title and a possible deep NCAA Tournament run. If they can't, the Cats will remain frustratingly inconsistent as they build leads with 3 guards and give them back with 2.
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