UofL's Backcourt Tweaks: How's It Going?
For the 2nd season in a row, Louisville has made some changes to its rotations and lineups in early January. Last season, the Cards promoted Khwan Fore and Malik Williams into the starting lineup seemingly out of nowhere and found a starting combo that dominated for them for most of the rest of the season. This season, UofL has begun juggling some of the backcourt combos. Over the coming weeks, we'll see if UofL's moves improve the team. In the meantime, I'll look at the early results and what fans should expect.
What You Should Know: Through the end of December, UofL's backcourt rotation was pretty simple. Ryan McMahon played heavy minutes at shooting guard, with Darius Perry and Lamarr Kimble splitting time at point guard. Other combos of Perry & Kimble together or working in David Johnson got much less time, and UofL did well by prioritizing this way: Perry/McMahon Kimble/McMahon Perry/Kimble Johnson + any other Possessions 343 280 97 88 +/- per 100 poss +28 +33 +7 +16 Adj +/- per 100 poss +30 +37 +9 +14 2p% 56% 52% 56% 45% 3p% 39% 34% 38% 36% eFG% 57% 52% 56% 48% 3FGA/100 FGA 38.8 41.2 37.7 34.7 FTA/100 FGA 25.5 33.8 40.3 27.8 TO% 18% 16% 15% 19% Opp 2p% 40% 39% 47% 54% Opp 3p% 32% 22% 40% 16% Opp eFG% 43% 36% 52% 39% Opp 3FGA/100 FGA 35.4 41.1 35.3 51.4 Opp FTA/100 FGA 18.9 27.1 20.0 27.8 Opp TO% 14% 18% 21% 19%
In the last 2 games, however, UofL has switched things up. They've played Perry & Kimble together more often than either of them with McMahon, and have entrusted David Johnson with heavy minutes. The results have been up and down so far: Perry/McMahon Kimble/McMahon Perry/Kimble Johnson + any other Possessions 21 22 36 53 +/- per 100 poss +62 -23 +39 -42 Adj +/- per 100 poss +70 -15 +49 -30 2p% 59% 44% 33% 37% 3p% 40% 25% 54% 33% eFG% 59% 43% 50% 40% 3FGA/100 FGA 22.7 20.0 35.1 28.6 FTA/100 FGA 31.8 20.0 10.8 33.3 TO% 10% 18% 11% 23% Opp 2p% 40% 67% 37% 50% Opp 3p% 20% 38% 19% 50% Opp eFG% 37% 62% 33% 63% Opp 3FGA/100 FGA 33.3 47.1 45.7 50.0 Opp FTA/100 FGA 60.0 23.5 11.4 14.6 Opp TO% 10% 5% 11% 19%
The Perry/Kimble duo has responded well to more time together, but UofL has been struggling during David Johnson's minutes and the Kimble/McMahon minutes. The move to de-emphasize Perry & McMahon playing together is a curious one, as this backcourt duo has been excellent for UofL this season. The Cards have had a positive plus/minus in 13 of 15 games this season during the minutes Perry & McMahon shared the court, including the Kentucky and Florida State losses; the only exceptions were Pittsburgh and Texas Tech. But the last 2 games against Florida State and Miami have seen this duo play less together than they have in any game this season.
What Is Happening? One factor that is helping the Perry/Kimble pairing improve their results is that they are getting more time with UofL's best players. Prior to January, that duo had played with Jordan Nwora in 71 of their 97 possessions. In January, they have played all 36 possessions alongside him. Nwora's direct replacement is usually freshman Samuel Williamson, who offers less in terms of rebounding, defense, and outside shooting. Nwora has hit 6 of 7 three pointers in the last two games when playing alongside this duo, which is helping to inflate their 3 point percentage and overall results. That's not likely to sustain, however, so lineups with Perry & Kimble will need to show an ability to force turnovers like they had earlier in the season if they are going to keep outscoring opponents. Lineups pairing Perry & Kimble have done exceptionally well in the last 2 games when they force opponents deep into the shot clock; FSU and Miami were a combined 0-11 on shots taken more than 20 seconds into the shot clock. Watching the film, it's clear that they were effective in forcing opponents to create shots off of isolation late and didn't allow many catch-and-shoot chances. That being said, they're not going to continue holding opponents without a basket on long possessions. For the season they've been very good on defense in these situations, forcing a 39% eFG%, but they're not quite as good as they have been recently.
Similarly, the Kimble/McMahon duo has gotten unlucky in the past couple games. First, opponents have shot very well in transition against them (4-5 overall, 2-2 on 2's and 2-3 on 3's). Prior to this run, however, opponents were putitng up an eFg% of only 28% in transition against them. The recent hot streak by opponents is not due to any clear defensive lapses, but rather opponents have hit some contested shots that normally they would miss. That's likely to reverse somewhat. The Kimble/McMahon pairing has also been cold from 3 point range in the last 2 games, with McMahon going 0-3 with Kimble beside him. That's not likely to continue, since McMahon was shooting 43% from 3 (12 for 28) when paired with Kimble earlier in the season.
What is more of a concern is how UofL has struggled recently in David Johnson's minutes. Specifically, UofL's defense has been quite poor; they've allowed opponents to shoot threes frequently and well. Watching the film, there are 2 things at play. First, David Johnson isn't quite yet comfortable with UofL's defensive system. There are numerous times where he and his teammates have to communicate openly about assignments and switches. Johnson also does not yet have great instincts about how to help but still recover to shooters. These mistakes frequently yield open three point shots. The second factor is that Johnson played a lot against Florida State, and UofL struggled as a team in that game. Johnson's issues on defense are highlighted when playing against teams who have the athleticism to create off the dribble and draw help; in fact, UofL continually gave up good three point looks the the Seminoles when forced to help against a driver. Johnson's not the only Cardinal who struggled in that game, but he didn't help the issue. Florida State also had the length to get off shots even when UofL was trying to contest shots. So, while David Johnson isn't at the level of UofL's other guards yet defensively, his recent performance is made to look worse because Florida State was a tough matchup for UofL. UofL was a horrific -25 in his 32 possessions played in that game, but a more reasonable +3 in his 20 possessions against Miami.
What Does This Mean? While elevating Lamarr Kimble into the starting lineup in place of Ryan McMahon has worked out fairly well so far, much of the success has come from hot 3 point shooting and great defense late in the shot clock. These are not likely to sustain at these levels, and the Perry/Kimble partnership does not have a great track record this season. Their biggest issue earlier this season was poor defense in transition, as opponents posted a 62% eFG% against them. That's something to watch for, as UofL overall has been great in those situations,
Likewise, the Kimble/McMahon pairing is likely to see improved results. Ryan McMahon has been a surprisingly solid defender this season, with smart rotations to get back in transition and close out on shooters. His shooting has also been consistent, so he will likely bounce back from his mini-slump over the past couple games.
I don't see any reason for UofL to have moved away from playing Perry & McMahon together. They have been excellent together so far this season, and have kept it up recently. They haven't benefited from any especially flukey shooting by them or the opponent, so I'd expect them to continue to post strong results. As I stated before, they've had a positive plus/minus together in 13 of UofL's 15 games this season, and a significant factor is that Perry has been a pretty solid shooter. He's 12-33 for 36%, so when he plays with McMahon, Sutton, and Nwora UofL can field 4 players who are legitimate good shooters. Kimble is at 5-21 for 24%, so he's essentially a non-threat. Kimble is a better on-ball defender than McMahon, but McMahon is a very capable off-ball defender and understands UofL's defensive concepts well enough to not be a liability. I just don't believe Kimble is an upgrade over McMahon, and the data bears that out.
Lastly, UofL does need to keep finding game time for David Johnson so that he can be ready for a larger role next year, but it seems that UofL really takes a step back defensively with him in the game (particularly when Williamson is also in). With 3 veteran guards in Perry, Kimble, and McMahon all delivering solid results, UofL doesn't need a lot from Johnson this year. If he is earning minutes that's fine, but UofL's doesn't need to compromise their guard rotation if he's not helping the team win.
Thanks for reading my newsletter. For a primer on the stats I like to use, click here: http://hoopsinsight.com/stats-glossary. If you'd like to take a look at previous newsletters I've sent, check out my archive. If you have any questions, want to argue a point, or have some feedback, feel free to reach out via email at sean@hoopsinsight.com, or on Twitter @hoopsinsights. If you liked this, let me know as well, and tell your friends to subscribe at www.hoopsinsight.com.
You can forward this to others, but please ask them to subscribe as well so I can keep track of who's enjoying my insight and analysis.