What You Should Know about the Cats in the Clutch
If there's one positive thing about having an up and down start to the season, it's that you get a lot of chances to see how a team performs in the clutch. The Kentucky Wildcats have racked up more clutch experience this season than they probably planned on, but it may serve them well as they enter conference play. In this edition of Hoops Insight, I will take a look at UK's play in the clutch and what it means for the Wildcats going forward.
What You Should Know: Kentucky has played 7 games this season in which the score was within 10 points during the last 10 minutes of regulation or overtime. During these 7 games, UK has a scoring margin of +18 points in 117 possessions:
-1 in 17 poss vs Michigan State
-2 in 15 poss vs Evansville
+1 in 23 poss vs Utah Valley
+5 in 4 poss vs Georgia Tech
+7 in 13 poss vs Utah
+0 in 17 poss vs Ohio St
+8 in 28 poss vs UofL
Kentucky is 4-3 in these 6 games, largely because UK has a scoring margin of -4 in 366 possessions in the first 30 minutes against these teams. UK has had an issue digging themselves into a hole, and spending the final 10 minutes trying to climb out...and it hasn't quite been enough.
During these clutch situations, UK has actually posted a worse eFG% than opponents (51% vs 54%). The Wildcats have taken care of the ball, turning it over on only 9% of possessions; they've forced turnovers on 16% of opponents' possessions. Kentucky has rebounded 36% of their own misses, and 70% of opponents' misses.
The biggest single factor has been free throw shooting. UK has hit 48 of 60 free throws (80%) in clutch situations, compared to 31 of 51 (61%) for opponents. While UK's free throw shooting is in line with their season average, 4 of their opponents (Utah Valley, Utah, Ohio State, Louisville) have shot worse from the free throw line against UK than their season average.
What Is Happening? I think it's highly unlikely that UK has discovered some kind of free throw defense. The Wildcats have benefited from poor free throw shooting by opponents, although only in the Louisville game did this turn a possible loss into a win.
Much of what UK is doing in clutch situations is replicable, however, because of the types of lineups they are playing. Of their 117 clutch possessions, UK has played a 3 guard lineup for 100 of them. These 3 guard lineups are +28 in 100 poss, compared to -10 in 17 poss for 2 guard lineups.
For the full season, UK's 3 guard lineups have an adjusted margin of +0.26 pts/possession, have succeeded in limiting their own turnovers while forcing them as well, and hit 80% of their free throws. In UK's clutch possessions, the Wildcats have posted an adjusted margin of +0.25 pts/possession, have succeeded in limiting their own turnovers while forcing them as well, and hit 80% of their free throws. UK's strong play in clutch situations is reflective of what happens when they play 3 guard lineups 90% of the time instead of their season average of 50%.
Among UK's potential 3 guard lineups, the one they've played the most in clutch spots is Hagans/Maxey/Quickley/Richards/Montgomery, and they have been spectacular. They have posted a +20 in 32 possessions in clutch situations, with an eFG% of 66% compared to 47% for opponents. They have forced turnovers on 25% of opponent possessions and blocked 11% of opponent shots. This is clearly the group UK turns to when they need results, and they usually get them in the clutch.
Hagans, Maxey, and Quickley are, unsurprisingly, the key to UK's success in these spots. This trio takes 2/3 of UK's shots in the clutch (compared to 48% for the season) and have an eFg% of 51% in these spots (compared to 49% for the season). Despite this increased burden, they commit turnovers on fewer possessions than their season average (7% vs 9%). Ashton Hagans in particular also gets more aggressive on the defensive glass, collecting 13% of opponent misses (compared to 9% for the season). This helps offset some decline in productivity from Richards & Montgomery, who have an eFG% of 55% and a defensive rebounding rate of 21% in the clutch, vs. 60% and 26% for the season.
What Does This Mean for UK? The Wildcats have some clear strengths they are leveraging in the clutch to fight back from deficits. This is a solid indicator that this UK team has the potential to be even better than they have shown this season if they commit to playing 3 guards the vast majority of the game. However, there are some concerns. UK has clearly benefited from good luck as opponents have shot poorly from the free throw line. The bigger concern, to me, is that UK has allowed nearly as many free throws as they have taken. A lot of teams who force turnovers also tend to commit fouls with aggressive defense. A more worrisome point is that UK seems to become much more foul-prone when they are trailing, and not just in endgame situations where they need to foul. In clutch situations where UK is leading, they foul on only 20% of possessions while opponents foul on 37%. When UK is trailing, their foul rate leaps to 43%, while opponents' is fairly stable at 34%. A great example of this is the Utah game; during the final 6:30, Utah only took 3 shots from the field and turned the ball over 4 times. However, the Utes drew 8 free throws on 6 UK fouls. 3 of these UK fouls came 21 or more seconds into the shot clock and wasted strong defensive possessions for UK. There was a since of desperation evident in UK's defense that was helping them force turnovers, but also led them to commit fouls (and grant free throws).
Obviously, UK doesn't want to be in situations where they have to claw back after falling behind. In SEC play, however, that is just going to happen sometimes. It's encouraging that UK has a weapon to rely on in their 3 guard lineups, and it's proven to help them erase deficits. In order to take the next step, the Wildcats need to play a bit smarter on defense in clutch situations and limit some of the fouling. If they can do that, UK will be making comebacks, not just coming close.
I want to thank you for subscribing to my newsletter. At Hoops Insight, I hope to use data to find insights that reveal things you didn't realize about the Kentucky Wildcats. I'm using play-by-play data to track what's happening, who's doing it, and who is in the game, in order to show you things the box score can't. Check out my past newsletters in the Hoops Insight Archive, and read about the stats I like to use in my stats glossary.
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