Cards in the Clutch: What You Should Know
It's nice to get comfortable wins in college basketball, but conference play is always going to be rife with close, tense games. Last season, 11 of UofL's 18 conference games were decided by 10 or fewer points. So far this season, Louisville has had only 2 of 13 games decided by 10 or fewer points, so they haven't given a lot of signals on how they will perform in clutch situations. However, they have had 6 games in which the margin was 10 points or less at some point in the last 10 minutes (or overtime); today, I'm going to look at how the Cards performed in these situations and what that may signal in conference play.
What You Should Know: Louisville has had 6 games where they played at least 1 possessions with the score within 10 points in the last 10 minutes of regulation or in overtime. In those 6 games, UofL has played 59 possessions with a scoring margin of -6 points:
+4 in 3 poss vs SC Upstate
-6 in 5 poss vs Akron
+1 in 15 poss vs Texas Tech
+2 in 6 poss vs Pittsburgh
+1 in 3 poss vs Miami OH
-8 in 27 poss vs Kentucky
The Cardinals are 4-2 in these games. Most of their underlying stats are quite good:
Effective FG% of 46%, vs 45% for opponents
Off reb% of 38% and Def reb% of 77%
Drawing free throws nearly twice as often as opponents
However, the net result is a negative scoring margin for two reasons:
Turnovers: UofL has turned the ball over on 20% of possessions, vs 10% for opponents
Free throw shooting: UofL is 17-31 while opponents are 15-17
The most significant stretches of play are the Texas Tech and UK games, as they account for 42 of the 59 "clutch" possessions, so I'll focus on them for this analysis. The stats aren't meaningfully different in these games compared to the lesser opponents; if anything, it's even more magnified. UofL shot much better than these opponents (55% eFG% to 45%), but was outscored by -7 points combined due to turnovers (22% vs 12% for opponents) and free throws (6-16 for UofL, 15-17 for opponents).
What Is Happening? Louisville's offensive focus changed in these clutch games. Jordan Nwora typically takes the lion's share of UofL's shots (30% when he's in). However, the shot distribution for UofL in clutch spots against Texas Tech and UK was very different:
Enoch took 25% of the shots
Williams took 21%
Kimble took 18%
Sutton took 14%
Nwora took 11%
McMahon took 7%
Perry took 4%
No other Cardinal played during these clutch situations.
Enoch and Williams combined for 46% of UofL's shots; they have taken just 23% of UofL's shots for the full season. This has come at the expense largely of Nwora, who drops from 30% to 11%.
This emphasis on post play is related to the increase in turnovers. Enoch and Williams combine to commit a turnover on 7% of their clutch possessions, compared to 3% for the season. The guard trio of Perry/Kimble/McMahon also sees their turnovers increase, from 7% to 12%, while Nwora and Sutton see no meaningful change. When I went back and reviewed the turnovers against Texas Tech and Kentucky, one thing stood out. Of the 10 turnovers UofL committed late in these close games, 7 were directly related to post offense. 4 were deflected post entry passes (largely charged to the guards) and 3 were charging fouls committed by Enoch or Williams as they made post moves. Only 1 of the turnovers was fully attributable to a guard, and it was a steal to score the closing 2 points by UK when the game was out of reach for UofL.
The main reason that UofL's underlying stats look pretty good but their overall scoring margin is quite negative is that the Cards have not capitalized on free throws in these 2 games. They were 2-4 against Texas Tech and 4-12 against UK, giving up a net 9 points at the free throw line. However, the players missing these free throws are perfectly capable shooters. Sutton is 1-1 in clutch spots, but Nwora/McMahon/Kimble/Williams are a combined 5-15. Only Williams at 61% is a substandard free throw shooter on the season; Nwora at 78% and McMahon at 90% are very good in fact. If UofL's players had just shot their season average in these 2 games from the free throw line, they would have gone 11-15. In fact, that is exactly the mark that UofL shot in the other 4 clutch games against lesser opponents!
What Does This Mean? I don't think UofL is making a mistake in shifting their focus to low post offense late in close games. First of all, Enoch and Williams are shooting well in these spots. They have a 65% eFg% in clutch situations, which is improved from 56% for the season. The focus on the post is leading to turnovers, but UofL's post players have not been unusually turnover prone for the season. Enoch and Williams have combined for 1 turnover every 6.5 shots this season, while Jordan Nwora (for one example) has an identical rate. But in these clutch spots, Enoch and Williams have a turnover every 4 shots. These numbers don't include when a teammate is charged with a turnover when trying to get them the ball, but low post offense does seem to create turnovers much more often in these late situations. It isn't solely due to opponent quality, either; outside of clutch spots, Enoch and Williams committed a turnover every 5.5 shots against Texas Tech and Kentucky. UofL should look at how they create these post touches and maybe consider having players with more size like Nwora make the entry passes, or play a 2 man game to keep the defense on its heels.
The free throw shooting to me is largely a non-issue and a fluke. No player is so bad that they shoot 70% in normal situations but under 40% in the clutch; that type of fragility would be weeded out well before the player reached major college basketball. The issue doesn't seem to be fatigue late in games; in all other situations in the last 10 minutes, UofL is 47-64 from the line for 73%. If UofL goes something like 8-16 from the line against Florida State, there might be reason to think something's up, but I don't see anything obvious that could be causing this.
Louisville seems to be a pretty solid team in the clutch this season. Even with the turnovers, their halfcourt offense is productive enough to compete with the top teams. If the free throw bugaboo is just a temporary glitch, UofL should be able to handle themselves and win their share of close games in ACC play.
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