UK-UofL Wrapup: Facts about the Cards
A loss to your rivals is always bitter, no matter how hard fought. The focus now is on how UofL can learn from this loss, either by fixing areas where they fell short or building on areas where they succeeded. As UofL moves on into the new year, what are some key things to learn from this game?
#1: Something weird happened with Jordan Nwora at halftime
At halftime, Nwora had only 3 points. He had played 26 of the 28 possessions, which is typical; he had played 90% of UofL's possessions against top 100 teams this season. He had taken 27% of UofL's shots when he was in the game, not far off from the 33% he's averaging this season. But something must have happened at halftime, because the second half looked nothing like this. In the second half, Nwora played 23 of 33 possessions (70%); he did play all 10 overtime possessions, but for Nwora to sit this much without foul trouble or clear injury is bizarre. What's more, Nwora turned incredibly gun-shy. The same player who takes 33% of UofL's shots, and took 27% in the first half, took only 7% of the Cards' shots when he was in the game after halftime. There is no universe in which UofL would choose to minimize their All-American in order to win a game, so something had to have happened to cause Nwora to lose playing time and become so reticent to shoot.
#2: UofL was good with Nwora out for the first time this season
UofL was -18 in Nwora's 59 possessions in this game, and +10 in 12 possessions when he sat. This is the first game this season where UofL had a negative +/- when Nwora played and a positive +/- when he sat. There's no universe where UofL is better when Nwora sits, so this is likely just a fluke of this game. Two main lineups played without Nwora, and both saw similar success: Kimble/McMahon/Sutton/Williamson/Williams was +5 in 6 possessions, and Perry/McMahon/Sutton/Williamson/Enoch was +6 in 4. Both groups rebounded every UK miss, forced a lot of turnovers, and did not commit a turnover themselves. Whatever sparked them must not have been something the coaches believed was sustainable, because Nwora played the last 11 minutes plus overtime. If UofL can play well without their star, that can take some of the pressure off of him.
#3: UofL ran their offense through their bigs
When Nwora stopped shooting, the two big men filled the void. During the first half, Steven Enoch and Malik Williams each took 27% of UofL's shots when they were in. That's in line with their season averages. In the second half and overtime, however, they became the focal point. Williams took 43% of UofL's shots and Enoch a staggering 55% of UofL's shots when they were in the game. Because Enoch and Williams alternate for each other, this may have been a choice by the coaching staff to run their offense through the center regardless of player. They were able to handle the increased load, as they improved their eFG% from 38% in the first half to 53% in the second. Enoch (17 shots) and Williams (9) each set a season high in shots taken. It's unclear if this will be some tweak to UofL's game plan going forward, but it certainly was unexpected...and it worked!
#4 UofL seemed to struggled with athleticism
There were a few data points from this game that suggested that UofL struggled with UK's overall athleticism. First, UofL's transition defense came into the game 1st in the nation allowing a 29% eFG%. UK posted 64% on 14 shots, and most of them came from dribble penetration by UK's guards. UofL normally sends 3-4 players back on defense in transition, but they had trouble when they matched up as UK looked for early shots. UofL also allowed the highest free throw rate for an opponent this season, as measured by FTA/FGA. In every other game where UofL had allowed a lot of free throws, UofL had still drawn more free throws than the opponent, indicating that the free throw rates were elevated due to refs calling fouls. In this game, however, UofL had a lower free throw rate, indicating that they truly were having some problems containing their opponent. During my pregame research, I found a tidbit that may relate to this. UofL had played against only 2 players all season before this game who were rated in the RSCI top 50 as high school seniors; UK had 8. High school rankings aren't perfect, but do usually reflect athleticism strongly. UofL has 3 themselves, and luckily only 1 Cards opponent the rest of the season has more than 2: Duke, with 7. If the Cards are vulnerable to athleticism, and if HS rankings are a reasonable proxy, they won't get tested by it too much during conference play.
The fact that UofL fought back a closed a 12 point deficit in just a few minutes against a strong team is a great sign. However, there are clearly a few things to work on if the Cards are to truly contend for a national title this season.
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