UK-UofL Wrapup: Key Facts for the Cats
Wildcat fans are feeling as good as they have all season. Not only did the Cats get a huge win over a highly ranked team, but it was their rival UofL. It's pretty obvious which players made a big impact: Tyrese Maxey had another big night, Immanuel Quickley set a career high, and Nick Richards was a force in the low post. But what are some less obvious ways that Kentucky performed well? Is there anything about the game that should be concerning? Let's take a deeper look at 4 key facts about UK's win over UofL in this edition of Hoops Insight.
#1: Kentucky scored more in transition against UofL than any other team has this season
In my preview, I referenced that UofL leads the nation in transition eFG% defense. The Cards were holding teams to a 29% eFg% in transition; given that, it was reasonable that opponents would not even bother with fastbreaks and just focus on halfcourt offensive sets. However, UK posted an eFG% of 64% on 14 transition shots. UofL had not given up anything close to that level of fastbreak scoring in any game this season, and Kentucky did it primarily with the threat of their guards penetrating. UofL usually foregoes offensive rebounding to send 3-4 players back on defense, and most opponents end up dribbling into a swarm of defenders. Kentucky slowed the fastbreak tempo a bit and waited for UofL to get into man-to-man defense, which often produced mismatches as defenders took the nearest man. The Cats then had either Hagans or Maxey attack off the dribble; they frequently beat their man and drew help, which opened up passing lanes. By being a bit more patient and exploting some mismatches in transition, UK created scoring opportunities where no other UofL opponent had.
#2: 3 guard lineups carried the Wildcats
For the 6th game in a row, UK leaned heavily on 3 guard lineups. They played 57 possessions and outscored UofL by +13 points, compared to 17 and -5 for 2 guard lineups. As they have all season, these lineups forced turnovers and shot well. UK hit 55% of their threes when playing 3 guard lineups, as they were able to drive into the paint and dish for open shots. These groups were especially effective when paired with the length of Nick Richards and EJ Montgomery. When either or both of these played alongside 3 guards, UK was +20 in 39 possessions. UK had a 66% eFG% in these possessions, compared to 42% for UofL, forced turnovers on 21% of UofL's possessions, and shot free throws twice as often as the Cards. This leads into one of the possible areas of concern for the Cats, though...
#3: UK struggled in Nate Sestina's minutes, and much of it seems to be due to his play
Unsaid above was the fact that 3 guard lineups were -7 in 18 possessions when Nate Sestina played; overall UK was -6 in his 24 possessions. The biggest issues were a high foul rate (UK fouled on 46% of possessions) and poor rebounding (UK rebounded 59% of UofL's misses and 29% of their own). Both of these are traceable directly to Sestina. He committed a foul on a staggering 21% of the possessions when he played. This works out to nearly 14 fouls per 40 minutes; that's over 3x his season long rate (which is already the highest on UK's team). For reference, Montgomery and Richards combined to commit fouls on 11% of their possessions. Sestina clearly had a lot of trouble with UofL's big men. He also struggled to make an impact on the boards. He collected only 6% of the available defensive rebounds; Montgomery collected 12% and Richards 9%. The combination of fouling incessantly and rarely collecting opponent misses was costly, and it was probably to UK's benefit that he fouled out.
#4: Kentucky's struggles late in the shot clock nearly cost them the game
In the second half, UK let a 12 point lead evaporate. During that half, UK had 5 occasions when they took a shot 20 seconds or more into the shot clock. The Cats missed every one of these shots. In the first half, UK had a 64% eFG% on 11 such shots, but the Cards defense tightened up significantly. UK was lucky that they took relatively few shots so late. If UofL had forced a couple more late clock situations, they could have won the game. Of the 5 2nd half attempts, 4 were nearly identical situations where a Wildcat drove but couldn't beat their man, and forced a tough runner near the paint. The Louisville defense had begun adjusting to encourage help defenders to duck in quickly to slow down the dribbler, and it was working on these late clock situations. Kentucky has been most effective this season late in the clock when they score off of ball movement; 60% of thee shots they make late in the clock are assisted. They should keep capitalizing on their ability to move the ball and hit open shots instead of trying to score in isolation late in the clock.
There's a lot to feel good about with this win. It was a clear signal that UK has several players who can impact a game against any opponent, and their 3 guard style can be effective against the very best. However, there are still some structural issues with late clock offense and UK needs Nate Sestina to contribute effectively against talented teams. If UK can shore up the last two they could get on quite a roll in conference play.
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