UofL vs UK 2019 Preview Part 3: the Matchup
Welcome to part 3 of my preview for the 2019 edition as the Cards and Cats renew their blood feud! This season's preview will have 3 parts:
Part 1: Season Performance and Recent Trends
Part 2: Strengths, Weaknesses, and Key Lineups
Part 3: Matchup Preview
Each part will cover both Louisville and Kentucky, so all subscribers will get both. This preview should give you everything you need to know about both teams ahead of the big game. In part 1, I touched on the consistency UofL has shown this season, led by their exceptional defense; I also dug into the numbers to show just how inconsistent Kentucky has been this season. In part 2, I broke down some of the strengths and weaknesses of each team as well as the lineups they depend on. In part 3 below, I'll offer my thoughts on how the teams match up and keys to watch for.
I believe there are some key areas where each team should be able to establish an advantage in this game:
First, neither team is likely to score much in transition. This is a bigger problem for Kentucky, as they are much less effective in the halfcourt offense than Louisville. Kentucky's effective FG% in transition ranks 64th, but they are just 240th in halfcourt; Louisville is 63rd in transition eFG% and 24th in halfcourt. UofL ranks first nationally in eFG% allowed in transition, holding opponents to a miniscule 29%. They've been even better recently, holding 6 of their last 7 opponents under 36%. WKU posted a 9% eFG% in transition and Michigan was at 7%; only EKU at 75% did well, and they only took 4 total shots in transition.
Second, Kentucky is probably going to do well at defensive rebounding and forcing turnovers. They are 34th nationally in defensive rebounding, and have done well against strong offensive rebounding teams. Michigan State and UAB are each in the top 30 nationally in offensive rebounding, but got only 22% of their own misses against UK. UofL is 70th nationally in offensive rebounding, but that's a bit inflated by strong numbers against weaker teams. UofL collected 60% of their misses against EKU and 42% against WKU, but both of those teams are in the bottom 50 nationally in defensive rebounding. Texas Tech and Youngstown State are the two best defensive rebounding teams UofL has faced, and the Cards got less than 20% of their own misses in each game. UK is only 162nd in forcing turnovers on the season, but have been forcing turnovers at a much higher rate since they started playing 3 guard lineups more over the last five games. Their last 3 opponents have committed turnovers on at least 21% of their possessions, and UofL has committed turnovers on at least 22% of their possessions in 3 of their last 4 games.
This means that this game is going to be about halfcourt offense. Both teams defend well and force opponents into long possessions; UK's opponents take 18.0 seconds on offense (301st) and UofL's take 18.4 (332nd). This means both teams are likely going to have to execute their offense late. Here's what this might look like:
When UK is on offense:
UK's late offense skews more towards threes, which are 34% of their late shots compared to 28% overall. They are awful at them, hitting only 19%. UK does tend to score a lot off ball movement late, as 60% of their late baskets are assisted. UofL tends to force a lot of three pointers late in the clock; these make up 49% of opponents shots, and oddly enough opponents hit a higher percentage of 3's late (31% vs 29% overall). If UK continues to move the ball well deep into the shot clock, they can probably get open threes against UofL but will need to start hitting them.
When UofL is on offense:
Late in the clock, UofL tends to get a lot of 2 point jumpers; these make up 46% of their late shots, compared to 36% overall. Most of these come out of isolation, as only 20% of these 2 point jumpers are assisted. UofL's offense tends to fall apart when they are missing these 2 point jumpers; they are at 44% for the season but only hit 32% in their 3 worst offensive games (Michigan, Texas Tech, Miami OH). UK is actually pretty good at defending 2 pt jumpers, ranking 6th nationally in opponent eFG% on them. They opened the season holding 7 of their first 8 opponents under 25% on 2 pt jumpers, but their last 3 opponents have been at 48% or better. Nwora, Enoch, and Perry are all dangerous midrange shooters for UofL late; they all take at least 42% of their late shots from midrange, and hit at least 53% of them. These are almost always isolation plays, so Kentucky's defenders are going to have to stay focused through the shot clock or get burnt.
Kentucky is likely going to get a higher volume of shots in this game as they force turnovers and corral defensive rebounds. This is critical because the Wildcats probably won't outshoot the Cards in this game from the field. I doubt that either team will have a large free throw advantage, either. UofL doesn't draw a ton of free throws or allow them. UK doesn't allow many free throws usually either. They do rank 49th in drawing free throws, but they have not been very good at it for the past 7 games.
The wildcard in this game for me is if Kentucky plays a significant amount of time with 3 guards and only 1 big, playing Keion Brooks at the 4. Brooks only played 9 minutes last game as EJ Montgomery and Nate Sestina were the preferred frontcourt, but UK has been outstanding when he's been at the 4 recently. Here are UK's stats over the past 5 games by lineup type:
Of those 81 possessions UK has played with 3 guards and 1 big, 76 have had Keion Brooks as the 4. UK is +37 in those 76 possessions (they are -2 in 5 possessions with Kahlil Whitney at the 4). Kentucky is actually shooting 47% from 3 in those 76 possessions, as that lineup has spaced the floor very well and use dribble drives to create open shots. While those groups are undersized, they rebound better than UK does normally thanks to aggressive board work by the guards and Brooks' strong work boxing out. However, as you can see from the chart above, these lineups play less often than other, less effective groups.
I believe UK's best chance to win is to rely on 3 guard, 1 big lineups with Keion Brooks ate the 4. These lineups are the only ones who have shown the ability to score effectively in the halfcourt, rebound, and force turnovers. UK is not going to get easy baskets in transition, and will need either or both of strong shooting and more shot volume than UofL. These lineups are the best shot to generate that. Nate Sestina did make quite an impression last week as a perimeter threat for UK, hitting 5 of 8 threes. Most of his damage was done alongside 2 guard lineups, where he went 4/5 from three, but UK was outscored by 2 points in 11 possessions with these lineups despite his hot shooting. The issue is that these lineups were awful defensively, giving up a 70% eFG%.
Prediction (sort of?):
First, this game is going to probably be ugly. I predict it to be low-scoring due to long offensive possessions and few fastbreak baskets.
UK will have a strong night on the defensive glass and forcing turnovers, leading the Wildcats to have more shot attempts than UofL
There will be relatively few free throw attempts, probably less than 15 for each team. I doubt UK's free throw shooting strength will get them more than 1-2 extra points.
UofL will take a lot of tough jumpers late in the clock, probably from Nwora, Enoch, or Perry
I think UofL is going to be who they are. They are going to be hellacious defensively, and put up a lot of jumpers. Unless they have a terrible shooting night, they are going to continue to look like one of the best handful of teams in the country (maybe the best). If UK is willing to play Brooks at the 4 for a significant amount of time and attack with 3 guards, I think the Cats can win those minutes and set themselves up to win a close game. If they keep pairing 3 guards with 2 bigs, or playing 2 guard lineups, I think the problems with halfcourt offense will be too much for UK to overcome with shot volume.
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