UofL vs UK Preview Part 2
Welcome to part 2 of my preview for the 2019 edition as the Cards and Cats renew their blood feud! This season's preview will have 3 parts:
Part 1: Season Performance and Recent Trends
Part 2: Strengths, Weaknesses, and Key Lineups
Part 3: Matchup Preview (coming Sat, Dec 28)
Each part will cover both Louisville and Kentucky, so all subscribers will get both. This preview should give you everything you need to know about both teams ahead of the big game. In part 1, I touched on the consistency UofL has shown this season, led by their exceptional defense; I also dug into the numbers to show just how inconsistent Kentucky has been this season. In part 2 below, I'll go into more detail about the strengths and weaknesses of each team as well as looking at the lineups they depend on.
Louisville Cardinals
Stats Profile for UofL
Strengths and Weaknesses
Louisville is currently rated 3rd in the nation by KenPom.com. As you would expect of a team performing that well, they've shown themselves to be very strong in a number of areas:
17th in effective FG%, ranking 24th in 2P% and 32nd in 3P%
2nd in effective FG% allowed, ranking 8th in opponent 2P% and 12th in opponent 3P%
41st in free throw rate allowed
They have shown very few weaknesses, but are not as strong in a few key areas:
315th in opponent turnover rate
202nd in blocked shot rate
147th in free throw rate
I'll start with the most interesting thing about the Cards, their strong shooting. UofL doesn't have a great shot selection profile but has overcome that with accuracy from every part of the court. They rank only 330th in percentage of shots taken at the rim, 177th in percentage of shots taken from 3 point range, and 47th in percentage of shots taken between the rim and 3 point line. Typically the latter are the least efficient shots, because shooting percentages aren't very good on them and they're only worth 2 points as opposed to 3. However, UofL is in the top 50 in FG% from each area (9th near the rim, 41st on other 2 pointers, and 36th from 3) which overcomes shot selection issues. This offensive profile is actually fairly similar to what the San Antonio Spurs did last season in the NBA, as they took a much higher percentage of mid-range shots than other teams but were very accurate. The downside is that shooting accuracy tends to fluctuate, so teams with a suboptimal shot selection can have their offense fall off hard. This is what's happened to the Spurs this season, for example, as they are an average shooting team from most parts of the court but have a poor offense because of low-efficiency shots. The Cards have to be very accurate to overcome inefficient shot selection, which can cause their offense to fall off quickly if they aren't hitting shots at a high rate. They've been good enough to make this a strength, but it's worth monitoring.
Louisville's elite eFG% defense is more reflective of a few key principles. The Cards:
Allow very few shots at the rim (15th nationally)
Benefit from poor opponent 3 point shooting (13th nationally)
Allow almost nothing in transition (16th fewest transition shots, 1st in opponent transition eFG%)
Opponents tend to take a long time to get a shot against UofL. Per KenPom, their average defensive possession lasts 18.4 seconds, good for 22nd longest. These late possessions tend to lead to poor shots; per hoop-math.com, opponents only get to the rim on 12% of their possessions longer than 25 seconds. The Cards are clearly getting used to the pack-line defense of Chris Mack.
Another strength for the Cards is the presence of Jordan Nwora. He currently ranks #1 in KenPom's player of the year formula as he's combining heavy shot volume with strong efficiency, while also rebounding well and avoiding turnovers. By my data, he takes 33% of UofL's shots with a 56% eFG%. He also does a good job of avoiding fouls, committing only about 2.5 per 40 minutes. He's played over 80% of UofL's non-garbage time minutes, so UofL rarely has to play a significant stretch of minutes without him.
Louisville's 3 most notable weaknesses (blocking shots, forcing turnovers, drawing free throws) share one thing in common: they are all highly correlated with overall athleticism. UofL doesn't have a ton of superb athletes who were high school phenoms; only 3 of their players were top 50 consensus recruits out of high school (Malik Williams, Samuel Williamson, Aidan Igiehon) and 2 of these are freshmen. This certainly hasn't hurt the Cards performance this season, although it's worth noting that UofL has only played against 2 top 50 RSCI recruits this season (Miami FL's Kameron McGusty and Western Ky's Charles Bassey). Kentucky has 8 such players on their team, so this will be the first occasion where UofL is playing against a team with this prep pedigree. That doesn't mean everything, but it will be interesting to see if Kentucky's athleticism can bother UofL.
The shot selection I mentioned before is another potential weakness for UofL. The 5 most frequent shooters for UofL are Jordan Nwora, Steven Enoch, Ryan McMahon, Dwayne Sutton, and Darius Perry. Of these 5, all but Sutton take more of their shots as 2 point jumpers than at the rim. Because these players don't draw a high number of free throws, they are vulnerable to poor shooting nights; this affects the entire team. Take a look at the Cards' shot selection and shooting in their 3 worst offensive games of the season by KenPom rating (Michigan, Texas Tech, Miami OH) compared to their season averages:
Their worst offensive performances have a few things in common. First, UofL got to the rim even loss often than they do normally, while taking more 2 point jumpers. Second, they shot much worse on both 2 point jumpers and 3 pointers. So, the shot quality got worse, and the shooting got worse. The shot quality is not great to start with, so a downturn in shooting can be catastrophic to their offense. Luckily, UofL's defense bailed them out and they went 2-1 in these games...but it's reasonable to wonder if the Cards will run into offensive troubles against athletic, defensive minded teams.
Key Lineups
Louisville has a core 7 man rotation on whom they rely: Darius Perry, Ryan McMahon, Dwayne Sutton, Jordan Nwora, Steven Enoch, Malik Williams, and Lamarr Kimble. Combinations of these players account for UofL's 4 most played lineups, with the usual starters (Perry/McMahon/Sutton/Nwora/Enoch) playing nearly 3x as many possessions as the 2nd most common lineup. All of UofL's top 5 lineups have a solid adjusted margin per possession, with no obvious weak groupings. Against UofL's 5 top-100 opponents, the starters have again played the most possessions but has been less effective. In 77 possessions, the starters have a plus/minus of exactly zero. In contrast, lineups with Kimble/McMahon/Sutton/Nwora and either Enoch or Williams are +34 in 83 possessions against these same opponents. These lineups have a positive +/- against each of UofL's top 100-level opponents, led by a ridiculous +18 in 15 possessions against Pittsburgh. With Kimble at the point, UofL's defense has been otherworldly; opponents have just a 33% eFg% and commit turnovers and fouls at a higher rate than UofL normally forces. Kimble is especially effective guarding the pick and roll. UofL has their bigs hedge a lot to slow down the ballhandler, and Kimble appears to be effective at fighting through screens to create a trap and slow down the opponent. In the film I watched, Perry was not as aggressive fighting through screens to trap and was used more off the ball as a defender.
It's worth nothing that UofL plays very rarely without Jordan Nwora in meaningful games, but they tend to struggle when he leaves. He's played about 90% of the minutes against top-100 teams, and during the time he's sat UofL has struggled to score. They have an eFG% of just 37%, and have turned the ball over on a staggering 26% of their possessions. Samuel Williamson steps up as the primary creator, taking 24% of UofL's shots when Nwora sits; however, he has an eFg% of just 28% in these minutes. He's probably not quite ready for that large of a role, so UofL does miss a lot when Nwora sits. Given that Nwora is not foul-prone, however, UofL can pick and choose when he rests. It's also worth noting that UofL almost never plays without one of Nwora or Sutton on the floor, so they almost always have one of their veteran wings to help carry the load.
Kentucky Wildcats
Stats Profile for UK
Strengths and Weaknesses
With Kentucky's inconsistent season, they don't have a lot of areas where they are truly elite. This season, UK does rank in the top 50 nationally in:
Free throw rate (50th)
Defensive rebounding (34th)
Opponent effective FG% (39th)
Free throw shooting (15th)
Their weaknesses largely revolve around the 3 point line, as UK is near the bottom of the nation in:
3 point accuracy (323rd)
3 point frequency (339th)
Opponent 3 point frequency (247th)
I suppose it's not technically a weakness to shoot 3's infrequently when you are so bad at them, but we'll include it since it limits the offensive options for the team.
The interesting thing is that some of UK's strengths and weaknesses have been very consistent, while others have had a ton of variability. We can group them as follows:
Consistent:
Defensive rebounding (strength)
Opponent effective FG% (strength)
Free throw shooting (strength)
3 point frequency (weakness)
Opponent 3 point frequency (weakness)
Inconsistent:
Free throw rate (strength)
3 point accuracy (weakness)
Under Calipari, UK has had a fairly consistent offensive style of favoring free throws over 3 pointers. Over the past 3 seasons, they have not ranked below 40th in the rate of drawing free throws, or above 288th in rate of taking 3 pointers; it's not surprising to see these as relative strengths and weaknesses again. The strong free throw shooting has helped UK capitalize on the free throws they draw, with their guards all shooting 83% or better.
Defensive rebounding is not typically a strength of Calipari teams. UK has never been better than 49th nationally in this stat and only twice better than 100th under Coach Cal. The difference this season has been made up by UK's guards, who are rebounding more than any set of guards under Calipari. For the first time, every UK guard is rebounding at least 11% of the opponent's misses when they are in the game. This is making up for relatively poor defensive rebounding by UK's big men; for the first time, UK has no player collecting more than 19% of opponent misses. This gang approach to rebounding is clearly working for the Cats.
UK has been excellent defensively over the last 10 seasons. They've never ranked worse than 44th in opponent effective FG% in that time, making this year's 39th actually a relatively poor defensive season. Under the eFG% defense are some interesting numbers. First, UK's opponents have the 6th lowest field goal percentage in the country on 2 point jumpers. Kentucky has used their length very effectively to contest these, as the Cats rank 5th nationally in blocking 2 point jumpers. This is a bit surprising because UK is only 219th in blocking shots at the rim; in fact, UK has blocked more 2 point jumpers than shots at the rim this season. UK has done this a few times, although the ratio of the two that UK has posted this season has only been matched by the 2012 title team when Anthony Davis and Terrence Jones made a living blocking 2 point jumpers.
Second, Kentucky has been much better at transition defense than halfcourt defense. UK is allowing opponents a 41% effective FG% in transition, 10th nationally. They allow 45% in halfcourt situations, 130th nationally. Here's a look at how opponent shot selection and shooting percentages vary between transition and halfcourt:
In Transition:
39% of shots at rim, 57% FG%
23% of shots as 2 point jumpers, 19% FG%
39% of shots as 3 pointers, 25% FG%
In Halfcourt:
27% of shots at rim, 64% FG%
32% of shots as 2 point jumpers, 28% FG%
41% of shots as 3 pointers, 32% FG%
Without going back and reviewing the film, it's tough to know if UK is getting lucky that opponents are missing or if the transition shots are heavily contested. Given that the shooting drops in every type of shot, my guess would be that UK is effective at contesting these shots.
On the flip side, UK's strength at drawing free throws and weakness at shooting 3s have been pretty inconsistent. UK's 4 highest free throw rates of the season were in their first 4 games; their 2 lowest have been in the last 2. Their firs 4 games are actually their 4 highest by a large margin; in each, UK drew free throws at a rate above 46 FTA per 100 FGA. In the other 7 games, UK hasn't exceeded 36 FTA per 100 FGA once and has been below 30 3 times. Most troubling is that UK's 3 worst free throw rate games have come against their only 3 opponents who rank in the top 100 in limiting free throw rate. While their season-long performance in this has been strong, they can be vulnerable against teams who have shown an ability to avoid fouling.
Most fans believe UK's three point shooting is a lost cause, and has been awful all season. Their percentage of 28% is truly awful, but they've really been all over the map. UK has 3 games where they shot 18% or worse from 3, but also 2 games at 40% or better. To contrast, East Carolina has the same 3 point percentage as UK for the season but only has 1 game below 20% and 1 above 40%. This UK team is eerily reminiscne tof the 2015-16 team, who through 10 games were shotting 28% from 3 point range with 3 games at 20% or worse and 1 games above 40%. They proceeded to hit 48% in each of their next 2 games, 40% for the remainder of the season, and end the year at 37%. When a team is as volatile as UK has been from deep, what has been a weakness could become a strength very quickly.
Key Lineups
Because of injuries, UK has not been able to settle on favored lineups like they may have wanted. Whereas UofL's most played lineup has played 196 possessions, UK's has only played 71 together. That lineup is Hagans/Quickley/Maxey/Richards/Montgomery, and of their 71 possessions together 53 have come in the last 3 games. Of course, UK's 2nd most played lineup (Hagans/Maxey/Whitney/Sestina/Richards) has played 58 possessions, but none since November 24th; the same is true of their 3rd most played lineup (Hagans/Quickley/Whitney/Sestina/Richards).
Needless to say, that makes it difficult to pinpoint "key lineups". However, there are some common themes. In each of the last 5 games, UK has played 3 guard lineups more often than 2 guard lineups; they did not do this once in the first 6 games. Over these 3 games, here's how UK has performed:
3 guard lineups have been much better than 2, and lineups with 3 guards and 1 big have been the best of all. 3 guard lineups have forced a ton of turnovers, while lineups with just 1 big have shot well and rebounded well. I went back and watched film of one of these lineups (Hagans/Quickley/Maxey/Brooks/Richards) against Georgia Tech. They outscored the Yellow Jackets by 10 points in 26 possessions, including pushing the lead from 4 to 8 points around the 10 minute mark and 8 to 16 points around the 7 minute mark. Watching the film, a few things jumped out:
1) These guards clearly trust each other to help on defense, which gives them license to pressure more knowing that someone else will help to cut off the drive
2) Brooks does a very good job of playing physical, both on post defense and when boxing out
3) These lineups play almost a Four Corners look, spreading 4 players on the perimeter and featuring motion concepts of passing and cutting; this shifts the defense and leads to good shots
4) Nick Richards seems most comfortable playing with these lineups, as he does a great job of staying on the weakside block when the ball switches sides, then being ready to catch a pass if a guard drives off that skip pass
The stats bear out these effects. As noted above, these lineups force more turnovers and get more rebounds, and shoot better from the field. In fact, UK is hitting 41% of their 3s in the last 5 games with 3 guard/1 big lineups. Nick Richards really benefits from these lineups, too. His FG% is 80% when playing as the lone big with 3 guards, compared to 76% with 3 guards and 2 bigs and 65% with 2 guards. With Nate Sestina returning, these lineups only played 6 possessions against Utah and 10 against Ohio State. If Kentucky returns to playing 3 guards and 1 big (likely with Keion Brooks at the 4), look for them to continue to have a lot of success.
I hope you found some interesting nuggets reading about each teams strengths and weaknesses. Tomorrow, I'll preview the matchup and look at the keys for each team. I hope you enjoy reading it, and that your favorite team wins big on Saturday.
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Thanks for reading my newsletter. If you have any questions, want to argue a point, or have some feedback, feel free to reach out via email at sean@hoopsinsight.com, or on Twitter @hoopsinsights. If you liked this, let me know as well, and tell your friends to subscribe at www.hoopsinsight.com.
You can forward this to others, but please ask them to subscribe as well so I can keep track of who's enjoying my insight and analysis