UofL vs UK 2019 Preview Part 1: How Has Each Team Played This Season?
Welcome to part 1 of my preview for the 2019 edition as the Cards and Cats renew their blood feud! This season's preview will have 3 parts:
Part 1: Season Performance and Recent Trends
Part 2: Strengths, Weaknesses, and Key Lineups (coming Fri, Dec 27)
Part 3: Matchup Preview (coming Sat, Dec 28)
Each part will cover both Louisville and Kentucky, so all subscribers will get both. This preview should give you everything you need to know about both teams ahead of the big game. Let's not waste any time and get right into it, starting with the visiting Louisville Cardinals:
Louisville Cardinals
Stats Profile for UofL
Season Performance
The Cards are 11-1 on the season and rank 3rd in both Ken.com and BartTorvik.com's NCAA team ratings. The above stats profile shows some of their key stats, with garbage time performance filtered out. It's notable that UofL has played over 10% of their total possessions this season in what I define as garbage time and their adjusted per-possession scoring margin drops from +0.29 to +0.25 when you include garbage time. This indicates that the Cardinals really let off the throttle during garbage time and they may actually be even a bit better than their already strong ratings indicate.
The Cards haven't built their reputation solely by feasting on poor teams. They have played 5 teams in the KenPom top 100 (Miami FL, Western Kentucky, Michigan, Pittsburgh, and Texas Tech) and have an adjusted margin of +0.32/poss...even better than their full season number! As Table C in the stats profile shows, they have done well against bench lineups and starters with an adjusted margin of +0.34/poss when playing against lineups with 5 starters.
Louisville's strong shooting has been led by the trio of Jordan Nwora, Ryan McMahon, and Dwayne Sutton. Despite Nwora and McMahon being largely perimeter players, and Sutton standing only 6'5", all 3 are in the top 250-ish players in effective FG% with Sutton and McMahon in the top 100. This trio collectively has an effective FG% of 59% on the season and is shooting 44% from 3. They account for an even 50% of UofL's shots this season, with Nwora taking 36% of the team's shot when he is in the game.
UofL didn't waste any time making their mark this season. Their season opening performance against Miami FL is their highest rated of the season by adjusted margin, posting a +0.62/poss margin excluding garbage time. In fact, their 3 best games (by adjusted margin) of the season came in the opening stretch of 4 games: Miami FL, Indiana State, and North Carolina Central.
This isn't to say that they've been poor recently, however. They've been quite consistent over their last 6 games, with 4 games rating between +0.30 and +0.38 in adjusted margin, 1 at +0.19 (Miami OH), and only the loss to Texas Tech really standing out as a poor game at only +0.05 in adjusted margin. Let's take a closer look at the last 6 games to see what's notable lately.
Recent Trends
Thanks to the Texas Tech loss, the Cards' adjusted margin over the last 6 games is +0.25/poss, a bit lower than their season average but not dramatically so. The quality of opposition has been higher, so a few of the team stats have fallen off compared to their season averages:
Effective FG% has dropped to 49% from 55%
Turnovers have increased to 19% of possessions from 17%
Points per possession have fallen to 0.97 from 1.09, due to worse shooting and more turnovers
However, the Cards defense has stepped up in several ways:
Opponents' eFG% is down to 38% from 41% for the season
Opponent turnovers have ticked up to 18% of possessions from 17%
Points allowed per possession has fallen to 0.76 from 0.80
The dropoff in shooting has been up and down the roster. The trio of Nwora, McMahon, and Sutton has hit just 33% of their threes and posted an eFG% of 50% in their last 6 games. In fact, every rotation player for the Cards except for Malik Williams has shot notably worse over the past 6 games than over the first 6. This could be chalked up to tougher competition, although it's a pretty dramatic swing.
Regardless, UofL has managed to largely maintain an elite level of play thanks to their defense. Louisville has been able to hold their opponents in check almost regardless of pedigree. This season, they have:
Allowed a high of 0.99 points/possession to Akron and 0.91 to Eastern Kentucky
Held three opponents under 0.70 points/possessions (Miami FL, Michigan, Miami OH)
Held every other opponent between 0.81 and 0.84 points/possession
That is a stunning consistency. While UofL may not necessarily have improved over the past 6 games, they haven't suffered much of a dropoff and they started the season about as well as a team can. The Cards have been playing like a top-5 team for the entire season, even if they haven't quite reached that level every night. In a season where nobody has been consistent, the Cards are about as close as anyone has come.
Kentucky Wildcats
Stats Profile for UK
Season Performance
The Cats are 8-3 on the season, and rated 16th by KenPom.com. Those ratings do include some aspect of preseason expectations based on returnees and elite recruits; BartTorvik.com's ratinggs do not include these and rate UK 37th based solely on this season's results. The stats profile listed above shows some of their key stats, with garbage time filtered out. Kentucky has an adjusted margin of +0.15 points per possession; this is actually slightly lower than their rating of +0.16 if you include garbage time.
Kentucky has been tremendously inconsistent, with injuries a heavy factor. 2 of UK's 3 post players (Nate Sestina and EJ Montgomery) each missed 3 separate games, and only Ashton Hagans has started all 11 of UK's games so far. To illustrate how the rotations have been shuffled, the Utah Valley-Mt. St. Mary's-Lamar 3 game stretch is the only time when Kentucky has had the same lineup lead them in playing time in consecutive games. The lineup who accomplished this (Hagans/Maxey/Whitney/Sestina/Richards) has not played at all since that Lamar game, so they clearly didn't make much of an impression.
This has no doubt contributed to the rocky results. While UK has an adjusted margin of +0.15/possession for the season, they've had 7 games where they bested that number and one game where they posted a +0.14. In the other 3 games, they've posted -0.12 (Evansville), -0.03 (Utah), and 0.00 (Utah Valley). Adjusted margin per possession represents the scoring margin a team would put up against an average opponent on a per-possession basis to account for opponent strength and the number of possessions; this indicates that UK has been an average or worse team 3 times this season. However, they've had 3 games (Michigan St., Eastern Kentucky, Fairleigh Dickinson) at +0.31 or better; this is about the level required to be a Final Four caliber team. The oddest thing is that these games were against teams rated 5th (Michigan St.), 320th (Eastern Kentucky), and 297th (Fairleigh Dickinson) according to KenPom.
Kentucky's results have been puzzling when you try to account for opponent strength. They've only played 2 teams rated in KenPom's top 100: #5 Michigan St. and #1 Ohio St. The Cats have held their own, beating the Spartans and losing a close game to the Buckeyes, with a strong adjusted margin of +0.27/possession against these teams. If you include teams just outside the top 100 (Utah, Georgia Tech) UK's adjusted margin is +0.17/poss, just above their season average. If you just include the 5 games where UK has had their full roster (Michigan St., Lamar, Mt. St. Mary's, Utah, Ohio State), the Cats again have an adjusted margin of +0.17/possession. The Cats have actually been better against 5 opposing starters (adjusted margin of +0.20) than against opposing lineups with bench players (+0.14). The data is saying exactly what any casual observer would say: Kentucky can step it up and play well or lay an absolute egg, with very little having to do with the opponent.
Recent Trends
Kentucky has been a bit better overall in their last 5 games with an adjusted margin of +0.17 points/possession. The only thing that's been consistent in this stretch has been forcing turnovers, however; The Cats have forced turnovers on 22% of opponent possessions in the last 5 games, up from 19% for the season. This has largely coincided with Kentucky playing more 3 guard lineups. This extra defensive intensity has not helped Kentucky be any more consistent over this recent stretch overall, however. They have posted an adjusted margin of +0.35/poss against Fairleigh Dickinson and -0.03 against Utah. The inconsistency is not limited to adjusted margin, either:
The Cats held Fairleigh Dickinson to an eFG% of 37%, but allowed Utah to hit 64%
UK committed turnovers on only 12% of possessions against FDU, but 24% against Georgia Tech
The Cats collected 82% of Utah's misses, but only 61% of FDUs
FDU collected 8 FTA per 100 FGA and UAB collected 9, but Ohio State earned 61 FTA per 100 FGA and Utah earned 55
This has made it very difficult to identify real strengths and weaknesses for the Cats. Even typical strengths for UK have been hit or miss this season. For example, UK ranked 4th in 2017-18 and 14th in 2018-19 in free throw rate. They rank 50th this season, but their best 4 performances came in the first 4 games of the season.
The Wildcats have been defined by inconsistency and a lack of game-to-game cohesion this season. Injuries and dependence on several newcomers have combined to create an experience not unlike a blindfolded roller coaster ride, where you're never sure if the climb will continue or if you will suddenly plummet. The Cats have been known to start season slow and begin to click in December, but nothing recently has shown any semblance of positive momentum. Assuming nobody gets injured, this will be UK's first stretch of 3 games in a row with all players available. Coming off 2 losses, however, I don't think is the kind of consistency fans would be looking for. The only guarantee is that nobody quite knows what they'll get from the Unpredicta-Cats.
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