Missed 3 pointers are hurting UK in some hidden ways
Making 3 pointers is obviously much better than missing 3 pointers, because 3 points is better than 0. When Kentucky misses 3 pointers, however, they lose more than just the chance to score 3 points. It appears that the team (especially the guards) suffer a hangover effect that lasts the next few possessions. In this issue of Hoops Insight, I look into the hidden cost of UK missing three pointers and how it causes the team to play fundamentally differently.
What You Should Know: Whether Kentucky makes or misses a 3 point shot can have an impact on the next few possessions in some specific ways. Here's a chart showing UK's team stats in the 5 possessions immediately following a made or missed 3 pointer this season:
A lot of UK's stats don't change; they have a similar effective FG%, shoot threes about as often, and commit and force turnovers at similar rates. This is consistency, and that's a good thing! However, two stats (highlighted in yellow above) change dramatically. UK registers an assist on a much lower percentage of made baskets, and allows opponents to shoot a much better rate on 2 pointers, in the 5 possessions following a missed 3 pointer.
What Is Happening? I'll look at each stat separately to share what I'm seeing when I dig into the numbers further and watch the film. First, let's consider the assist rate decline. This is a measure of how often made baskets are assisted, so it ignores missed shots. It's not artifically low because UK is missing shots more often. This is roughly a measure of how UK depends on ball movement, and UK is scoring less off of ball movement after missing 3 pointers. After watching film and digging into stats, the most interesting thing I find is that Ashton Hagans takes a more aggressive scoring role after the team misses 3 pointers. When he is in the game, Hagans takes 25% of UK's shots in the 5 possessions following a missed 3, compared to 17% in the 5 possessions following a made 3. During the rest of the game (when no threes have been attempted in the last 5 possessions), Hagans also takes 17% of UK's shots. He clearly gets more aggressive looking for his own shot after a 3 has been missed, whether it was by himself or a teammate. Obviously this reduces UK's assist rate, since Hagans is the most common source of an assist, and he can't assist himself. Interestingly enough, every other UK player is roughly as likely to shoot regardless of whether the team has made or missed a 3 pointer recently....it's just an Ashton Hagans thing!
The increase in opponent 2 point accuracy is also quite stark after UK misses 3 pointers. My first thought was that this is due to longer rebounds leading to more opposing fast breaks and easier twos. I looked at some shooting breakdowns and the data looked like it was confirming this:
During the 5 possessions after UK misses a 3 pointer, opponents have an eFG% of 50% on shots in the first 10 seconds of the shot clock
During the 5 possessions after UK makes a 3 pointer, opponents have an eFG% of 30% on shots in the first 10 seconds of the shot clock
Seems simple, right? Opponents get more quick shots on fast breaks after UK misses shots. But I decided to double-check this to see if the difference was coming on that initial defensive rebound possession....and I was surprised to see it's not happening that way:
When shooting within 10 seconds immediately after UK misses a 3 pointer, opponents are 9-22 on twos and 3-13 on threes, for an eFG% of 39%
When shooting within 10 seconds on possessions 2-5 after UK misses a 3 pointer, opponents are 25-41 on twos and 7-22 on threes, for an eFG% of 56%
Well, that's surprising...opponents shoot better on quick shots a few possessions after UK misses a three, not on the immediate defensive rebound! I went back to watch film and spotted something that may be causing the issue. UK's guards are more likely to get beat off the dribble or miscommunicate within a few possessions of missing a three, compared to when they make a three. In particular, Ashton Hagans can get sloppy in these spots and let an opponent get into the paint, creating a better shot. Overall, UK seems to have less energy and sharpness when they are missing three pointers, and it has a noticeable effect on their defensive effectiveness.
What Does This Mean for UK? Missing three pointers is not just damaging to UK's scoring on that possession. It appears to impact the mental approach of the team in 2 key ways:
1) Ashton Hagans takes on a larger burden of shooting and scoring
2) Most of the team (particularly guards) seem to lose defensive focus
In a vacuum, #1 isn't a huge problem; Hagans is posting an eFG% of 55% when he shoots after the team has missed a 3 so he's scoring pretty efficiently. However, there's a larger question if his teammates notice this effect and believe he's lost confidence in the or is dominating the ball. UK may want to have a few favored sets they run to create more offensive balance in these situations by getting good shots for other players.
#2 is clearly a problem, and the coaching staff should address this quickly. Perimeter defense should be a strength of this team, and they can't afford to compromise that strength because of poor perimeter shooting. On the contrary, the team needs to lock in even more defensively if they are having an off night shooting. If UK can do that, they should be able to bounce back from their disappointing early season losses and get closer to the best version of themselves.
It's virtually impossible that Kentucky remains a 28% 3 point shooting team all season. The 2015-2016 team was hitting 28% of their 3 pointers through Dec 15th, but ended the season at 36.6%, one of the best shooting teams Calipari has had! However, UK can't let their identity be affected so much by a poor shooting night. They've got to address some of these hidden effects so that they don't let a poor shooting night snowball into a poor overall performance.
I want to thank you for subscribing to my newsletter. At Hoops Insight, I hope to use data to find insights that reveal things you didn't realize about the Kentucky Wildcats. I'm using play-by-play data to track what's happening, who's doing it, and who is in the game, in order to show you things the box score can't. Check out my past newsletters in the Hoops Insight Archive, and read about the stats I like to use in my stats glossary.
If you have any questions about things I'm saying, the data behind it, or if you just want to debate a point, feel free to contact me on Twitter at @hoopsinsights or email at sean@hoopsinsight.com. I'd love your feedback on the newsletter and how I can improve. Thanks, and I hope you enjoy my work.