Where did UofL's offense go?
Louisville's loss to Texas Tech was not just their first loss of the season, but also a stark reversal of their season-opening form. The Cardinals got out to a hot start this season largely on the basis of great shooting, which makes their wayward offense against the Red Raiders very surprising. This wasn't an isolated event, however. In 4 of UofL's last 5 games, the Cards have had poor (for them) shooting games. Does this mean that things are starting to slip, or is this just a temporary blip? Before I examine further, here's a one-page stats profile for UofL so far this season:
UofL Stats Profile through 10 games
What You Should Know: UofL is averaging an effective field goal percentage of 55% on the season. UofL has been below that figure in 4 of their last 5 games: against Akron, Western Kentucky, Michigan, and Texas Tech. The low point was an eFG% of 37% against Texas Tech. However, nearly all of UofL's other stats have been very consistent in these games:
In games where UofL has trouble shooting, their offense craters but it's almost solely due to the shooting. The turnovers are a bit higher, but the Cards draw more free throws. The defense is excellent in both sets of games. While the raw +/- is much worse during the poor shooting games, some of that is due to playing tougher teams. When adjusting the +/- using KenPom ratings of opponents, the dropoff isn't as bad. An adjusted +/- of +20 points per 100 possessions is roughly equivalent to a top 20 team, meaning that UofL still plays at a high level even when shooting horribly.
What Is Happening? We can dig a bit further to look at what types of shots the Cardinals are taking during each set of games to see if there's an obvious cause.
In games where the Cards shoot well, they:
take 32% of their shots at the rim, and hit 72%
take 30% of their shots as 2 point jumpers, and hit 48%
take 38% of their shots as 3 pointers, and hit 44%
score 1.25 points per shot on average
In games where the Cards don't shoot well, they:
take 25% of their shots at the rim, and hit 66%
take 39% of their shots as 2 point jumpers, and hit 33%
take 37% of their shots as 3 pointers, and hit 28%
score 0.89 points per shot on average
There's not one thing that stands out dramatically more than the rest. UofL is taking harder shots, and shooting worse on all types of shots. The dropoff in shooting percentages is a bigger deal than shifting more into 2 point jumpers; taking more jumpers wouldn't be a big problem if the Cards could keep hitting 48%.
To be honest, some of UofL's hot start was probably unsustainable. 44% shooting on 3 pointers would rank 2nd nationally, and 48% on 2 point jumpers would be top 5. Even 72% shooting at the rim would rank top 10. It's possible that UofL could be one of the 2 best shooting teams in the country, but they may settle in as very good but not elite.
What's most interesting to me is that there wasn't any one player who was particularly influential in the hot shooting start, and no one player has been particularly responsible for the dropoff in shooting. For example, UofL's 3 point shooting has fallen off considerably (from 44% to 28%). But during their hot shooting games, 4 Cards have been above 45% from 3 (Nwora, Sutton, McMahon, Perry), and in their poor shooting games only 1 Cardinal has been above 34% from 3 (David Johnson, and he's only 1-2).
Even though it hasn't been as impactful of a problem, the change in shot selection has been a collective effort as well. The three Cards who have taken the most 2 point shots during the poor shooting games are Nwora, Enoch, and Perry. During these games, 71% of their 2 point shots have been jumpers. That's up from 54% during the better shooting games.
It's a bit stunning. Shooting has worsened in just about every possible way in these 4 games compared to the rest of the season, and dramatically so in some cases. The inaccuracy has been incredibly widespread, and so has poor shot selection. The most stunning part is that UofL has gone from being one of the top 2 shooting teams in 6 games to being one of the worst 25 in the other 4.
What Does This Mean? It's an incredibly dramatic shift, but I actually believe that it's just some clustering of bad luck. Watching some game film, the shot quality isn't dramatically different (particularly from 3) between the sets of games. The fact that there isn't any clear observable cause means one of two things: the whole team periodically becomes terrible at shooting (but still great at everything else!), or at least some large portion of the decline is just bad luck.
The casual fan might convince themselves that UofL is struggling due to finally playing better teams, but I don't see enough evidence to believe that's causing much of the troubles. First, nearly every other team stat is largely the same between the two sets of games; it's a stretch to think that the only impact from stronger competition is that UofL cannot shoot anymore, but everything else is fine. Additionally, of the 4 opponents against whom UofL struggled shooting, only Akron has a track record this season of limiting teams' eFG%. The Zips rank 7th nationally in eFG% against, but Michigan is 50th, Texas Tech is 77th, and Western Kentucky is 179th.
The final piece of evidence that makes me believe this is mostly bad luck is that this type of thing happens to most of the other strong shooting teams in the country as well. UofL sits 26th nationally in eFG% as of this writing. Here are a few other teams in the top 30 who have had multiple poor shooting games this season:
Butler ranks 27th at 55.0%, but had an eFG% of 41% against Minnesota and 45% in a loss to Baylor
Gonzaga is 16th at 56.3%, but had an eFG% of 43% in a narrow win over a bad UT-Arlington team, 46% in a 1 point win over Oregon, and 45% in a loss to Michigan
Michigan is 12th at 56.9%, but was at 28% in their loss to UofL and 46% in their loss to Illinois
Arizona is 6th at 57.9%, but was at 46% in a 7 point win over a bad South Dakota St team, 48% in a 7 point win over a bad Wake Forest team, and 29% in a loss to Baylor
A common thread here is that strong shooting teams tend to lose, or come very close, when they don't shoot well. UofL beat a very good Michigan team in a game where the Cardinals had an eFG% of 40%. I can't find a single other team in the top 30 in eFG% who have anywhere near as good of a win when they shot that poorly. That is a sign that the Cardinals are a well-balanced team who can get more wins than most when their shots aren't falling. Cards fans shouldn't despair because their team lost a game where they couldn't shoot; they should rejoice because their team can win when they can't shoot because they of how well they do so much else.
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