What can 6 games tell us about the Cardinals? A look at UofL this season vs last, and what to expect
Through 6 games last season, Louisville was 4-2 with a nice upset win over Michigan State and competitive losses to Tennessee and Marquette. Fans were pleasantly surprised with the progress under new coach Chris Mack. Business has picked up fast in the last year: Louisville is 6-0, likely about to be ranked #1, and looking like a real national title contender. Last season ended with a series of down notes, however, and if the Cards are going to avoid a similar fate this season it's crucial to learn from the past. We can look at last year's Cardinals as a template, and see how that team's performance through 6 games gave some indication over how the rest of the season would progress.
First, here are the one-page stats profiles on UofL through 6 games last year and this year:
2018 Stats Profile for UofL through 6 games
2019 Stats Profile for UofL through 6 games
Last season, UofL began with low expectations and encouraging performances...
Nobody knew quite what to expect last season with a new coach and 4 new starters. The schedule tested the Cards early, with 3 of the first 6 games against NCAA Tournament teams (Tennessee, Marquette, and Michigan State). Going 1-2 in these games was a solid outcome, with one of the losses in overtime and the other loss competitive until the final minutes. However, it still wasn't clear quite how good this team could be.
As Table A in the 2018 stats profile shows, UofL was about +17 points per 100 possessions better than an average team, adjusting for competition. Statistically, they were:
Only about average shooting the ball (52% eFG%, 34% 3pt FG%)
Drawing a lot of free throws (65 FTAs per 100 FGAs)
Avoiding turnovers (15% of possessions)
Getting burned from deep (Opponents 37% 3pt FG%)
Not forcing turnovers (16% of opponent possessions)
Opponent 3 point shooting in particular had bit a consistent problem, with 5 of the 6 opponents shooting better than 36%. On the flipside, avoiding turnovers had been a consistent strength, with UofL below 19% in every game and below 15% in 3. The other stats had been pretty inconsistent early on.
The Cards' most played lineup at the time was Cunningham/Perry/King/Sutton/Enoch, who had started the first 5 games and played more than twice as much as any other lineup. However, the rotation was already shifting. This group had feasted on the weak teams in the first 3 games, posting a +21 against Nicholls State, Southern, and Vermont, but were -3 in 8 possessions against Tennessee and Marquette and did not play against Michigan State. Jordan Nwora got promoted to the starting lineup ahead of King against Michigan State, and the new starters posted a +9 against the Spartans on the way to the win. The coaching staff showed a willingness to shuffle lineups, as UofL had 3 different lineups show up as the most-played lineup in 1 of the first 6 games, and a different lineup was the 2nd most-played in each of the first 6 games.
The Cards also were showing a weakness that probably kept them from a 6-0 start. Against Marquette and Tennessee, Louisville struggled to score down the stretch. During the first 30 minutes of these two games, Louisville scord 1.12 pts/possession and allowed 1.13. In the final 10 minutes & overtime, the Cards stayed consistent on defense allowing 1.13 pts/poss but could only muster 0.79 pts/poss themselves. The culprit was shooting as the team eFG% dropped from 52% to 33% in the final quarter of the games.
...while the Cards elevated expectations during the season, and ultimately missed them
Before last season, an NCAA bid and wins over ranked teams would have been considered a strong season. The way it happened left a bad taste in fans' mouths, as UofL flashed signs of being a Final 4 contender before bowing out in the first round. The Cards ended up rating as 20 pts/poss better than average, solidly in the top 25 nationally. The odd thing is, the Cards got a bit worse in most of the statistical categories that were notable early on:
Just average shooting (51% eFG%, 34% 3pt FG%)
A little above average in drawing FTs (35 FTAs per 100 FGAs, 115th nationally)
A little above average in avoiding turnovers (106th nationally)
Poor at forcing turnovers (313th nationally)
UofL was able to maintain their solid play in avoiding turnovers even as competition stiffened. The case seems to be that the coaching staff identified this as a strength and was able to maintain it through the season. The one area where they really improved was that they developed into a great shooting defense (25th in eFG% against). UofL was decidedly average in this area early on, but improved greatly. It seems likely that the coaching staff identified that opponents had shot well from deep early on, and looked to address it.
The key was that UofL completely revamped their rotations during the season. Only 1 of the 5 most played lineups after 6 games ended the season as one of the 5 most played lineups (Cunningham/Perry/Sutton/Nwora/Enoch), and it only ended up 4th. The lineup that finished as the most played (Cuningham/Fore/Sutton/Nwora/Williams) did not play more than 6 possessions in a game until Jan 9th, and then never less than 8 the rest of the way. This group proved to be very strong defensively (42% opponent eFg%), which powered them to play 42 pts/100 poss better than an average team. That mark was the best of any of UofL's top 5 lineups on the season. The lineup rotations which the staff had signalled early on proved to be a huge factor in UofL's in-season ascension.
UofL's ultimate weakness ended up being their play down the stretch, and the early-season offensive struggles carried through. During the first 30 min of games last season, UofL scored 1.05 pts/poss and had a 51% eFG%. During the final 10 min + overtime, UofL scored 0.99 pts/poss with an eFG% of 49%. It got even worse when games were close, as UofL dropped to 0.95 pts/poss with an eFg% of 47%. In nearly every game from Feb 9th onwards, this doomed the Cardinals.
What does that mean for this season?
We can take away some lessons from last season:
Consistent strengths will likely persist, with others regressing to the mean
The coaching staff will signal early on if they are willing to shake up rotations, especially when looking for defense
Hidden weaknesses will likely come up more during the season
How is this likely to play out this season? Well, UofL has some clear strengths and weaknesses:
UofL is shooting amazingly well (61% eFG%, 4th nationally)
UofL also has great shooting defense (43% opponent eFG%, 25th)
UofL is avoiding turnovers (71st)
UofL isn't forcing turnovers (315th)
The turnovers seem to be a stylistic choice by the coaching staff, since it's persisted from last season. But how about the shooting? I'd predict UofL's shooting is likely going to stay very strong. They've had an eFG% above 56% in 5 of their 6 games, and above 61% in 3 of them. What's more, their most played lineup (Perry/McMahon/Sutton/Nwora/Enoch) has an eFG% of 66%, and 3 of their other 5 most played lineups are at 62% or better. While UofL may have a few off games, they should be able to post strong offensive numbers in most of their games.
I'm a bit more worried about shooting defense. While UofL is holding opponents to a 42% eFG%, that figure rises to 45% when excluding garbage time. Against Miami and Akron (the only remotely quality opponents UofL has played), it rises to 49%. Additionally, UofL's most played lineup has allowed opponents a 47% eFG%. That's good, but it seems like UofL's defense is getting a boost from garbage time, weak opponents, and some good performances from their lesser played lineups.
Given that the coaching staff juggled rotations last season to find better defense, might they do the same this season? I think it's possible. Malik Williams started much of last season when UofL was at its best, and UofL's defense was better with him in. He's returning from injury this season, but UofL defense has been better in a small sample when he plays. He may take over for Steven Enoch. I also think David Johnson will take on a bigger role, although I don't see him taking over for Darius Perry or Ryan McMahon. Rather, I think he probably takes over the 3rd guard role from Fresh Kimble. In an incredibly small sample, UofL's defensive stats have been spectacular with Johnson in. Furthermore, Johnson will likely be a major contributor next year and needs experience to develop. Unless he is a minus defensively, I'd expect his role to increase at the expense of Kimble in the next few weeks.
Lastly, there is one area that could give UofL fans some concern. Last season the Cards struggled offensively down the stretch. While they have been very rarely tested this season, there is some evidence that this is continuing. If you filter out garbage time (as I do in my stats), UofL is scoring 1.25 pts/possession with an eFG% of 64% during the first 30 minutes of games. In the final 10 minutes, they are at 0.87 with a 34% eFG%. This was a particular issue against Akron, where the Cards had an eFG% of just 17% in the final 10 minutes and nearly lost. Jordan Nwora is 1-7 in these situations, Fresh Kimble is 1-4, Steven Enoch is 1-3, Darius Perry is 0-3, Samuel Williamson is 1-5. Only Ryan McMahon (1-2) and Dwayne Sutton (1-1) have even hit half of their shots...and they have the fewest attempts late in games. This could be a bugaboo to watch out for.
Overall, it seems like UofL should be able to continue building on their offensive performance this season while looking for defensive consistency as they juggle rotations. The coaching staff has shown a willingness to make lineup moves to find the best combinations, and fans should watch closely to see how Williams and Johnson integrate into the rotation. Lastly, late-game shooting could be a concern this season and fans should watch to see how UofL changes their approach to try to mitigate the cold shooting that has plagued them late in close games for over a year now.
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