What can 6 games tell us about the Wildcats?
Kentucky is 5-1, and nobody is entirely clear on how to feel about that. On one hand, they own a victory over a very strong Michigan State team despite another season mixing in several key newcomers. On the other, they've looked sluggish against some weak competition and...you know...the Evansville thing. KenPom rates UK 7th nationally as I'm writing this, but that includes an element of preseason expectations still; BartTorvik.com uses just current season performance and rates UK a more modest 28th. The Wildcats have some clear strengths so far (shooting defense, drawing free throws, hitting free throws) but also some clear weaknesses (3 point shooting, forcing turnovers). It's probably reasonable to expect UK to improve this season, but by how much? Which areas are likely to improve? Is anything likely to regress? We can look at last year's Wildcats as a template, and see how that team's performance through 6 games was instructive on who the Cats would become.
First, here are the one-page stats profile for UK through 6 games this year and last year:
2018 Stats Profile for UK through 6 games
2019 Stats Profile for UK through 6 games
UK started last season pretty badly...
Through 6 games last season, UK was 5-1, but it was a pretty ugly 5-1. The blowout loss to Duke left a bad taste in everyone's mouths, Southern Illinois actually led the Cats in the 2nd half, and VMI and Winthrop kept UK from pulling away with strong shooting from 3. Bart Torvik's ratings had UK a stunning 97th after 6 games while KenPom had them at 19th.
My own stats painted just as troubling of a picture. Adjusting for strength of opponents, UK was only outscoring teams by 9 point per 100 possessions (see Table A in the stats profile); that rating typically lands a team somewhere around 75th in the country. Even excluding the Duke loss, UK only improved to +13 pts/100 poss; that's usually good enough for 50th or so. Per Table A in the stats profile, UK was:
Struggling from 3 point range (32% 3pt FG%)
Turning the ball over a ton (21% of possessions)
Drawing a ton of free throws (59.5 FTAs per 100 FGA)
Getting a lot of offensive rebounds (rebounding 47% of own misses)
Getting strafed from 3 (43% opponent 3FG%)
Forcing turnovers well (20% of opponent possessions
Despite their 3 point struggles, UK had shown some flashes of being able to shoot well when it mattered most. During the last 10 minutes of games, UK had shot 50% on 3's (6-12), posting an eFG% of 62%.
The turnover troubles seemed likely to persist, since UK had trouble taking care of the ball in nearly every one of their first 6 games. The ability to draw free throws and get offensive boards also seemed sustainable given the consistent performances. On the flipside, it didn't seem like UK would consistently force turnovers. Most of the damage came against North Dakota, Winthrop, and Tennessee State, while UK only forced Duke into 4 turnovers.
UK was also searching to find lineups who could consistently play well. As Table D on the stats profile indicates, their 4 most played lineups all featured Quickley/Herro/Johnson, and only 2 of them had a positive +/-. Through 6 games, UK's most common lineups were very inconsistent; they'd do well one game but struggled to show up the next game. Only 1 lineup had managed to have 2 games where they posted a positive +/- while playing at least 5 possessions together: Green/Quickley/Herro/Washington/Montgomery, who had a +15 in 9 possessions vs North Dakota and +4 in 6 possessions against VMI. The Hagans/Herro/Johnson/Travis/Washington lineup had yet to make much of an impact, posting a dreadful -16 in 15 possessions against Duke and getting only 5 possessions together in the following 5 games total.
...but the season eventually turned around
As readers of this know, things improved for UK last season. They ended with an adjusted margin of +26 points/100 possessions and established themselves as a solid top-10 team. As far as underlying stats go, some improved and some didn't:
The 3 point shooting ticked up to 35%, solidly above average
The turnover rate improved a bit but was still pretty bad (19% of possessions, still below average)
They kept drawing free throws (41 per 100 FGAs, top 20 nationally)
They were elite at offensive rebounding (37%, 8th nationally)
Opponents cooled off from 3 (35%, about average)
They couldn't keep forcing turnover (18%, about 200th nationally)
The areas where UK was consistent tended to stay consistent for the season, and were real strengths (free throws, offensive rebounds) or weaknesses (committing turnovers). The flukier areas saw regression (3 point shooting & shooting defense, forcing turnovers).
The flashes UK showed of shooting late in games persisted. UK ended up hitting 40% of their 3's during the last 10 minutes of games, led by players like Keldon Johnson (58%), Immanuel Quickley (43%), and Tyler Herro (38%).
UK obviously made some huge changes to their rotation as last season went on, with Ashton Hagans moving into the starting lineup and Quade Green transferring. As a result, only 1 of the top 5 in the opening 6 games ended the year as one of the top 5 most played: Quickley/Herro/Johnson/Travis/Washington. Whereas several of the common lineups had underperformed early on, by season's end 4 of the 5 most played lineups had an adjusted margin better than UK's team average. In the first 6 games the common lineups weighed UK down, and by the end of the season they were lifting UK up.
What does that mean for this season?
UK is also 5-1 so far this season, but with a much better adjusted margin of +16 pts/100 possessions. If Kentucky shows any sort of improvement through the season, they will be solidly in the top 10; if they show anything like last year's improvement, they will likely be in the top 2.
The underlying stats for UK point out some clear strengths and weakneeses so far:
Great at drawing free throws (4th nationally)
Great at shooting defense (18th)
Very good at defensive rebounding (33rd)
Average at offensive rebounding (152nd)
Poor at 3 point shooting (266th)
Poor at forcing turnovers (248th)
It seems like the lesson from last year's team is that some stats are likely to maintain if there's underlying consistency, but stats that have been up and down are more likely to regress. My expectations are as follows:
UK will continue to draw free throws and put up strong shooting defense; those have been consistent, and were strengths against the 1 good team UK played (Michigan State)
UK's defensive rebounding will fall off; while UK is rebounding over 77% of opponent misses, this drops to 74% excluding garbage time and 71% excluding the EKU blowout
UK's offensive rebounding will improve somewhat, from 152nd to top-80ish; while UK has gotten 29% of their misses, they have 3 games at 33% or better. Also, in the last 3 games, UK's big men (Richards, Sestina, Montgomery) have combined to collect over 21% of UK's misses when they are on the court, but they had grabbed just 8% of UK's misses over the prior 3 games
UK's 3 point shooting will rebound to about average; free throw shooting is a good indicator, and UK is excellent at that, plus UK has 2 games above 40% and 1 at 33%, so this has been very inconsistent
UK will end up about average in forcing turnovers; they forced turnovers on at least 20% of opponent possessions in the first 3 games, including 22% against Michigan State, so they have demonstrated they can do it if focused
The defensive rebounding is the main concern I'd have. Aside from the case I laid out above, UK was not terribly strong at defensive rebounding last year with Richards and Montgomery in. Both players go for blocked shots, which can leave them vulnerable to offensive rebounds if they don't get it. Also, shots blocked out of bounds count as a offensive rebound, since the shot is missed but the shooting team gets it back. For this reason, teams who block shots tends to be poor at defensive rebounding. Last season, Syracuse, Duke, Washington, and Auburn were in the top 5 nationally in blocking shots, but were all 238th or worse in defensive rebounding; all but Duke were actually in the bottom 50 nationally. UK is likely to give up more field goal attempts than it takes due to a combination of giving up offensive rebounds, not forcing turnovers, and drawing free throws; that puts a lot of pressure on UK to hit free throws to win games. They've been great at it so far, but that means they need referees to call fouls.
UK has already had a lot of lineup volatility due to injuries this season, but I don't expect to see any huge changes like last year's ascension of Ashton Hagans into the starting lineup. Unlike last season, UK has several key lineups who have performed better than the team average this season. Most of the improvement is likely to come from UK having a healthy roster and leaning on preferred lineups even more. The biggest change will be more time for Richards & Montgomery lineups, especially with Nate Sestina missing the next few games to injury. Richards & Montgomery have only played 49 possessions together, with the most common lineup with them only having 11 possessions. These lineups do well when surrounded by 3 shooters; of the 7 lineups with Richards & Montgomery but not Keion Brooks, all 7 have a positive +/- and are a combined +14 in 39 possessions.
Last year proved to UK fans that 6 games means very little in the course of a season, and there is ample time to put together a strong resume. Furthermore, it's important to look deeper at strengths & weaknesses to see what's been consistent, and what's being influenced by 1 good or bad game. To end on a positive note, I'll point out 2 stats about UK's ability to improve on their opening stretch:
Last season, 3 of UK's top 8 performances (in adjusted +/-) came in the stretch following their opening 6 games (Monmouth, Utah, Louisville)
The best stretch of 6 games last season was late January and early February, but the 2nd best stretch of 6 games came in games 7-12, right after their disappointing opening
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