Was the Evansville loss a fluke or a sign of things to come? Thoughts on UK's opening week
Welcome to another season of indepth Kentucky Wildcats coverage here at Hoops Insight! For those who are new readers this season, here are some things to know:
I use play by play data to track data for the Wildcats, looking at advanced stats for lineups and players. I look at game situation, combinations of players, and opponent quality to find trends. You can read about some of the stats I like to use here
I put together a dashboard view of some of the key stats I like to look at, and usually share the latest games and season-to-date in each article. I'll often cite sections of this in my articles.
Most of my analysis ignores garbage time, which I define as anytime where the margin is 15 points or more with 2 minutes left, 18 points or more with 5 minutes left, or 25 points or more with 10 minutes left. These thresholds are based on analysis by Ken Pomeroy.
I'm on Twitter @hoopsinsights, and am always happy to answer questions from readers.
With that out of the way, let's get to the important stuff. You'd be hard pressed to find a more volatile week on the court for a college basketball team in recent history as the first week of the season for Kentucky. From winning a 1 vs 2 season opener to recording a blowout victory to losing a historically shocking upset as #1, the Wildcats have really explored the studio space so far. Naturally, most of the conversation has turned to worry about what led to the stunning loss to Evansville, and what fans should expect this season. Before I dive into what I'm seeing, here is a one-page dashboard of the key stats so far this season:
UK Stats Profile through Nov 12, 2019
There are a few key things fans should know about UK so far this season:
They have a fantastic defense: UK opponents are scoring 0.77 points per possession. Last year, the Wildcats held opponents under 0.77 points per possession in only 4 games all year. Evansville scored 0.96 points per possession; UK gave up more than that in 16 games last year, including 1.17 against a very bad VMI team.
Rebounding has actually been pretty good...: Last season Michigan State ranked 26th nationally in offensive rebounding, getting 34% of their own misses. UK allowed them to get only 22%; the Spartans collected 33% in a close win against Seton Hall, so UK took away a real strength. Even Evansville only got 29% of their own misses, a number which 9 UK opponents exceeded last season.
...but only when playing with 2 big men: UK's rebounding has been vastly different depending on whether they have 1 or 2 bigs in the game, however. When playing only 1 of Richards, Sestina, or Montgomery, UK has snared 76% of opponents' misses, with opponents collecting 24%. When playing 2 bigs, UK improves to collecting 83% of opponent misses. This was even more pronounced against Evansville, where 1 big lineups got 65% of the available defensive rebounds but 2 big lineups got a stunning 92%. In fact, UK's starters did not allow a single offensive rebound in the 26 possessions they played together in that game! Foul trouble and Montgomery's injury combined to limit UK to playing just over half the game with 2 bigs compared to nearly 80% against Michigan State and 60% of the non-garbage time minutes against EKU
UK's offense against Evansville was dreadful late in the shot clock: Kentucky had an effective FG% of 14% on shots which came 20 or more seconds into the shot clock against the Aces. That is a truly ghastly number. For comparison, UK's eFG% was 38% in these situations against Michigan State, and Evansville posted 53% in the same situations. Effective FG% adjusts for the fact that made 3's are worth an extra point; eFG% x 2 = points per shot. So, UK scored 4 points on 14 shots taken 20+ seconds into the shot clock. If they had shot the same 38% eFG% as they posted against Michigan State, they would have scored 11 points, and eked out a narrow win against a feisty upstart. Meanwhile, Evansville posted an eFg% of 53% on their late shots. That is the highest eFG% a UK opponent has posted this young season on any of the time segments I track (1-10 sec, 11-20 sec, 20+ sec). If Evansville was in the mid-30's for eFG% on late shots, they would have scored 6 fewer points in the game.
It I went back to watch film of UK 's late shots to see if there was anything sustainable about either UK's poor shooting late in the clock. I was expecting to see lots of poor shots thrown up late as the offense stalled, but that plainly was not the case. UK took 14 shots after 20 seconds or more had passed on the shot clock, and hit only 2 of them. Of the 12 misses, I would categorize probably 3, maybe 4 as poor shots:
With 18:22 left in the first half, Ashton Hagans is forced to take a 3 as nothing materializes when UK tries to get a post up
With 3:21 left in the first half, Keion Brooks takes a wide open 3. He's wide open because he's a bad outside shooter.
With 19:14 left in the second half, Ashton Hagans misses a 3. He's not a good outside shooter, but he is wide open after Maxey drives and kicks...I think it's borderline to call this a poor shot, but it's not playing to Hagans strengths for sure.
With 15:45 left in the second half, Tyrese Maxey tries to bank in a runner from a tough angle off a drive when nothing else materializes on the possession.
The other 8 misses were all either deep post touches for Richards or Sestina, open 3 point looks for Sestina or Quickley, or 1 wide open 15 foot jumper for Keion Brooks. Most importantly, these shots were almost entirely the result of plays designed to get exactly these shots. If UK can consistently run plays to get Richards or Sestina the ball 2 feet from the hoop, or get good 3 point looks for Quickley or Sestina, their offense is going to look a lot better very soon.
Meanwhile, Evansville benefited from some improbable good luck. For example, Evansville's KJ Riley banked in a 3 as the shot clock was expiring with 3:45 left in the first half to put the Aces up 27-22. While Riley is 2-2 on the young season from deep, he was 8-50 last season and 1-9 the season before that. Normally UK would feast on forcing such a wayward marksman into taking a late 3; in this game, that shot provided the eventual winning margin.
I'm not going to tell you that UK's offense has been good this season. But, the issue has largely been in late-clock situations, and has been caused by some good shots simply being missed. Here's a look at how UK's offense last year and this year compare in some key spots:
2018-19 season:
First 10 seconds of shot clock: 31% of shots, 55% eFG%
11-20 seconds: 33% of shots, 49% eFG%
20+ seconds: 31% of shots, 55% eFG%
2019-20 season so far:
First 10 seconds of shot clock: 41% of shots, 58% eFG%
11-20 seconds: 32% of shots, 43% eFG%
20+ seconds: 26% of shots, 34% eFG%
UK is getting more shots in transition, and shooting a bit better; this makes sense given UK's backcourt strength. This improvement is being outweighed by the trouble late in the clock, however. As I detailed above, however, this doesn't look like a huge trouble spot when I go back to the film. UK is getting the shots it wants; they're just not falling.
I hope UK fans take away 3 things after reading this and reflecting on the first 3 games of the season:
UK has a terrific defense this season that can win games
UK's rebounding is in better shape than I would have thought, especially if they can keep playing 2 big lineups for the majority of games
UK is struggling on shooting in late-clock situations, but is getting good looks and should see an uptick
I know that the Evansville loss feels like an omen portending a difficult season, but I haven't seen anything that makes me think UK doesn't have the capability to be an elite team and title contender this season. I think the results over the next few games will bring confidence back to the fan base and hopefully to the team itself.
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