UK vs UNC preview: How is UNC different now than in December?
First, let's consider UNC games against top opponents
For this scouting report, I'm going to focus on games UNC has played against teams ranked in the top 50 by KenPom.com. This gives us the most reasonable picture of how UNC plays against top teams.
As you'd expect, UNC's stats drop off a bit against top teams, but are still very good. They are a strong rebounding team, although not quite as good as their full season numbers. They rebound 38% of their misses, compared with 41% on the season, for example. They also are a little worse defensively, with top-50 opponents posting a 50% eFG vs 48% for the full season. They also don't force many turnovers; top-50 opponents turn it over on 16% of their possessions, compared to 19% for the full season.
Injuries have impacted UNC's style of play
Starting SG Kenny Williams has been out since Feb 9th, and will not return this season. He's been replaced by Theo Pinson, who missed time earlier this year (including the UK game). Since that time, UNC has made some subtle changes to their style of play that have generally had a positive impact.
The most notable change has been that UNC has dedicated themselves more on the defensive end.
Since Williams' injury, opponents have a 46% eFG against UNC, vs 53% prior to the injury. Since William's injury, UNC has held 7 of 8 top-50 opponents below their season average in eFG. By comparison, they only held 5 of their first 12 top-50 opponents below their season average eFG.
The difference is caused by UNC's halfcourt defense and forcing opponents to work longer. 40% of opponent shots have come 20+ seconds into the shot clock since Feb 9th, compared to 29% prior. UNC is much more disciplined on defense and it's forcing opponents into tougher shots late in the clock. By comparison, UNC only takes about 20% of their own shots 20+ seconds into the shot clock.
UNC's defense also holds up well on these late opportunities, with opponents posting a 35% eFG after 20+ seconds. However, UK's offense is actually pretty good late, and UK has a 46% eFG in these situations. Fox, Monk, and Willis are all very capable of shooting well late in the shot clock.
The swap of Pinson for Williams has given UNC a bit more size, and that has helped them improve on the defensive glass as well. UNC is collecting 78% of their opponent misses, compared to 75% pre-injury. That would rank UNC 3rd nationally in defensive rebounding percentage, if they kept that up all season...and that performance has been against some of their toughest opponents. UNC's defensive rebounding is probably even better than their offensive rebounding now!
Justin Jackson has been off his game
Justin Jackson had a breakout season, winning ACC player of the year. However, his numbers have slipped quite a bit late in the season. Here are his stats against top-50 teams only pre- and post-Feb 9th:
Jackson's shooting has dropped off considerably, yet he's taking more of UNC's shots. He also is getting to the free throw line about half as often. As a result, his scoring has dropped off considerably. He did have a strong game against Butler, but he's generally been off his game late in the season.
This has led to an interesting development; UNC has actually been playing much better with him off the court. UNC hasn't done it much, but moving Theo Pinson to SF alongside Berry and Britt has been dominating opponents lately. They've been forcing a ton of turnovers and drawing fouls at twice UNC's normal rate. This group has only played a handful of possessions per game during most games, but played quite a bit in UNC's win over Duke on March 4th. UK should be wary of this group and make sure to have their best lineups in to counter it, if it comes up.
A Berry injury would change the game
Joel Berry is the straw that stirs the drink for UNC. In particular, their offense craters with him out, dropping from a 50% eFG and 1.07 pts per possessions with him in, to 39% and 0.88 with him out. He has had a recurring ankle injury during the tournament, and if it flares up, UK should let Nate Britt shoot and focus on shutting down UNC"s other players. Britt has a terrible 38% eFG against top-50 teams this season, and rarely shoots (14% of UNC FGAs when in the game).
UK is doing some things well that can hurt UNC
UNC is a tough matchup, but UK may be able to overcome UNC's strengths. UNC has been good at:
1) Limiting opponent's eFG, mostly by forcing more shots late in the clock
UK has had an eFG better than the opponent allows on average in every game except NKU and Georgia (SEC tourney). UK has averaged a 46% eFG on shots 20+ seconds into the shot clock, and was at 52% in the first meeting with UNC in these situations.
2) Defensive rebounding, particularly late in the season against top-50 teams
UK has posted an off reb% better than the opponent usually allows in 5 of their last 6 games, after doing so 20 times in their first 31 games.
3) Offensive rebounding
UK has posted a def reb% better than what their opponent typically allows in 12 of their last 14 games; they did so in 16 of their first 23 games.
In the first matchup against UNC, UK shot and rebounded very well, but struggled to force turnovers and fouled too much. UK has not been forcing turnovers at a high rate lately, but is doing very well at not allowing free throws. The Wildcats have had 5 straight games of allowing free throws at a lower rate than their opponent usually draws. When combining this with the fact that UK is shooting and rebounding about as well as they have all season, I believe UK right now is a very bad matchup for UNC.
If UNC is going to have success, it will be by forcing UK into bad shots late in the clock repeatedly. UNC's not likely to turn the ball over much, so they will have opportunities to hit shots. If UNC goes to a 3-guard lineup to match up with UK, UNC may be able to have more success than with their bigger lineup, but they haven't shown much willingness to bench Justin Jackson. I don't think he's playing as well as when he scored 34 vs UK earlier this year, and UNC may not make the adjustments that would get them playing at their best right now. I think UK wins this one, and advances to the Final Four.
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