Analysis of Monk shooting slump, and the secret to beating UCLA
As UK prepares to take on UCLA in the Sweet Sixteen, many fans are wondering why freshman sensation Malik Monk has been in a bit of a scoring slump lately. I take an indepth look at his shooting data to reveal how he's changed his game slightly, and is probably the victim of a bit of bad luck.
Plus, I give a detailed scouting report of UCLA, using advanced stats to identify some weaknesses UK can attack and offer some suggestions for how the Wildcats can do so. Read below for information you won't find anywhere else!
Monk is in a slump, but what exactly is the issue?
Malik Monk hasn't scored above 20 points in UK's last 6 games, after averaging over 21 pts per game this season. He hadn't gone more than 4 games all season without scoring more than 20, and his only 2 games scoring under 10 points came in this latest slump. But, there are lot of reasons that a player's scoring could be down...let's look at a few hypotheses to see if we can identify the issue. All stats below are courtesy of the wonderful folks at hoop-math.com.
He's not playing fewer minutes. If Monk had seen his minutes drop dramatically, it would follow that his scoring would drop. But, he's averaging almost 32 mpg in the last 6, almost exactly his season average.
He is struggling with his shooting. His effective FG% the last 6 games is 35%, down from 54% for the full season.
None of UK's last 6 games have been at home...is it just an issue that he is worse on the road? That doesn't seem to be a big factor...Monk shot only slightly worse away from home this season.
His shot selection doesn't seem to be much worse. All season long, Monk has taken and made difficult shots. But, if his shot selection had changed to take more long 2-pointers, his shooting would suffer. However, he hasn't seen much of an increase in shooting long 2 pointers.
He is taking fewer shots from the field. Monk averaged about 15 shots per game, but has taken under 11 during the latest stretch. However, he is drawing free throws more often...and given his poor shooting, more shots might not help UK much.
The issue seems to be simply bad luck. As the chart below shows, Monk has seen his eFG% drop dramatically on shots at the rim (69% to 47%), and on 3 pointers (39% to a putrid 19%). In both cases, his recent poor shooting is well below what a D-1 player would ever shoot. In fact, his shooting from both areas would easily be the worst on UK's team. It's unlikely that he became UK's worst shooter all of a sudden, and it seems more likely that he'll bounce back.
There is a positive sign amidst his shooting woes. Monk appears to be getting more aggressive in halfcourt situations at driving the ball to the basket. He's increased his percentage of shots at the rim, and especially those shots coming in non-transition situations. For the season, 68% of his shots at the rim have come in transition, but in the last 6 games only 47% of his shots at the rim have come in transition. That means he's doing a better job of getting to the rim instead of settling for jumpers in halfcourt situations. Also, his ratio of free throw attempts to field goal attempts has risen, meaning he's drawing more fouls. It's a positive sign that he's evolving his game, and should lead to a more well-rounded player once his shooting bounces back.
Monk's shooting slump doesn't show any signs of being a serious problem. His shot selection hasn't gotten worse...in fact, it may be slightly better. His recent shooting percentages are frankly unsustainable, so this isn't a case of a player cooling off after a hot start to the season. While it is possible that Monk may have some nagging injury that impacts him, it's equally likely that he had a couple really bad games (0-10 from 3 against NKU and Texas A&M) and is just as likely to rebound with a hot shooting night against UCLA than to continue his recent struggles.
The UCLA Bruins are incredible on offense, but have some consistent weaknesses
UCLA has put up some amazing stats on offense this year. Here are a few of the superlatives, per KenPom.com:
2nd in offensive efficiency
1st in effective FG% (59.8%)
9th lowest turnover rate (15.0% of possessions)
3rd in 3-point shooting (40.6%)
3rd in 2-point shooting (59.0%)
Lowest rate of getting shots blocked (4.2% of shots)
Additionally, UCLA allowed free throws at the 9th lowest rate in the nation. However, UCLA also had some weaknesses:
315th in forcing turnovers (16.0% of possessions)
341st in drawing free throws
What I'm most interested in, however, is how UCLA performed when they were playing NCAA tournament-level competition. Did they rack up their stats against overmatched foes, or were they able to play consistently well against even their best opponents? I tracked UCLA's stats in games against teams ranked in KenPom's top 50 to see if there were any differences from their season stats, and here's what I found:
They still shot the ball amazingly well against top teams (57% eFG)
They still turned it over very little (16.0% of possessions)
They almost never forced turnovers (only 12.0% of possessions)
They allowed free throws much more often (33.1% FTA/FGA, vs 25.3% for full season)
They drew free throws even less often (22.7% FTA/FA, vs 26.9% for full season)
So, against top-50 teams, UCLA was amazingly efficient in the halfcourt. They shot really well, and turned it over very little. However, they didn't force turnovers much, and usually lost the free throw battle. In fact, there was a bit of a pattern to UCLA's season that revolved around the "Four Factors" that are commonly cited as being keys to a team's performance. The Four Factors are:
Shooting (measured as effective FG%)
Turnovers (measured as turnovers rate)
Rebounding (measured as offensive rebound %)
Drawing free throws (measured as FTA/FGA)
UCLA almost always shot better than their opponents, but the other 3 were a tossup. Against top-50 teams, UCLA tended to perform worse on turnovers and drawing free throws. A key to beating UCLA this season was outperforming them in at least 3 of the 4 factors. This happened 6 times this year:
Dec 3 vs UK: UK outperformed in TO%, OReb%, and FTA/FGA, but UCLA had 61% eFG to UK's 46% (UCLA won 97-92)
Dec 28 vs Oregon: Oregon outperformed in TO%, OReb% and FTA/FGA; UCLA had 62% eFG vs Oregon's 53% (UCLA lost 89-87)
Jan 12 vs Colorado: Colorado outperformed in TO%, OReb% and FTA/FGA; UCLA had 72% eFG vs Colorado's 54% (UCLA won 104-89)
Jan 21 vs Arizona: Arizona outperformed in eFG, OReb%, and FTA/FGA; Both teams were under 10% turnover rate (UCLA lost 96-85)
Jan 25 vs USC: USC outperformed in TO%, OReb% and FTA/FGA; UCLA had 53% eFG vs 51% for USC (UCLA lost 84-76)
Mar 10 vs Arizona: Arizona outperformed in every category; UCLA had season-worst 44.1% eFG (UCLA lost 86-75)
UCLA usually loses the turnover and free throw battle to good teams, and UK should be no different. The key to beating UCLA is to also have a better rebounding percentage, and stay reasonably close to them in shooting. When UCLA was outperformed in 3 of the 4 factors, they only won when they outshot the other team by 15 or more points...so being able to keep from being dramatically outshot is a huge key.
So shooting well is the key...but how can UK make that happen?
UCLA is a devastating offensive team, but they do have some vulnerabilities. One of them is the 2nd most common lineup they play: Lonzo Ball/Bryce Alford/Aaron Holiday/TJ Leaf/Thomas Welsh. When Holiday comes in the game, UCLA suffers defensively. This group plays a lot, but allows opponents a 60% eFG, and 42% on 3 pointers. When this group is in the game for UCLA (and generally, whenever Aaron Holiday is in the game), UK should be aggressive offensively, and shoot get some open 3's.
UK also has some lineups who have been shooting very well lately. 2 in particular stand out:
Fox/Monk/Briscoe/Willis/Adebayo
This has been UK's most played lineup lately, and they have a 60% eFG on the season. In fact, this lineup played more than any other in the first game against UCLA, and outscored UCLA by +12 points in 27 possessions.
Hawkins/Monk/Briscoe/Willis/Adebayo
This group has a 61% eFG this season, and has the 4th most possessions of any UK lineup. They have also been UK's #1 lineup is scoring margin per possession during the postseason. This group hasn't been outscored in a game since February 11th vs Alabama, and is +28 in 48 possessions since that game.
As their losses have shown, keeping up the shooting pace with UCLA is a key to beating them. 2 of UK's more common lineups have been shooting the ball very well, and one of UCLA's most common lineups lets opponents shoot well. If UK tweaks their rotation to give more time to the lineups listed above, and gets aggressive on offense when Aaron Holiday enters the game for UCLA, UK may be able to get a close win over a very dangerous UCLA team. Much like the first matchup, this game should feature great offensive play. If the Wildcats can shoot a bit better than last time, they can advance to the Elite Eight.
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