The Road Less Travis-ed: How will UK fare without Reid for a few games?
UK Stats Profile through Feb 19th
What does UK do now?
Reid Travis' veteran presence in the post will be just an idea for the next few games. After the grad transfer sprained his knee, his Wildcat teammates did not inspire confidence against Missouri. The Cats were on their way to a likely 25-point (or so) win when Travis went down, as they outscored Missouri by 10 points in just 22 possessions with Travis in. Over the rest of the game, UK was outscored by a marginal Missouri team by 2 points. This begs two main questions I'll try to answer:
Who steps into Travis' place in the rotation?
How will UK perform with Travis?
Richards likely gets the nod
I expect that Nick Richards will get the start, although I'd expect both he and EJ Montgomery will see a sharp increase in playing time. I believe this due to the past behavior of UK's coaching staff. Travis had only 1 other game all year where he played fewer than 20 minutes. That was against Southern Illinois in the 2nd game of the year, when he played 14 minutes. Richards was the main beneficiary, getting 27 minutes and grabbing 19 rebounds.
Richards also has logged more minutes than Montgomery alongside UK's other 4 starters this season. Richards has played 70 possessions with the quartet of Hagans/Herro/Johnson/Washington, while Montgomery has only played 29. The two most played lineups all season without Travis both feature Richards in his place; they are the previously mentioned lineup with Richards + starters, as well as the same lineup with Quickley in place of Hagans.
Montgomery was actually the player who took Travis' place when he was hurt against Missouri, but Richards has been the more popular choice for the coaches much of the year. My guess is Richards starts but Montgomery plays 20-24 minutes.
How will UK do without Travis?
This is a tough question to answer simply because we have a very limited sample of UK playing without him. Since Dec 1, only 4 lineups have played even 20 possessions without Travis. Only 2 lineups have played 10 possessions or more without Travis when opponents have 4 or more starters in the game, so it's even more uncertain how UK will handle the beginning and end of games. Since I asked the question, however, I suppose I should try to answer it.
I'll begin with how UK has played with and without Travis this season. I'll filter out any time played with Quade Green since he's not on the team, and focus on games since Dec 1 when UK started playing about their current level.
During that time, UK has actually performed slightly better without Travis. They have an adjusted margin of +0.31 pts/poss with him in and +0.36 with him out, although that's weighted by UK playing more against bench lineups with Travis out. When Travis is in, UK has an adjusted margin of +0.31 against 4+ starters and +0.32 against 3 or fewer, so they're consistent. With Travis out, it's +0.16 against 4+ and +0.45 against 3 or fewer. UK has played solid defense without Travis, holding opponents to a 40% eFg% vs 49% with him, but their defensive rebounding rate drops from 75% with him to 70% with him out. On offense, UK's 2pt shooting drops from 53% to 49% when he leaves, and UK shoots 3 pointers more often with Travis out. UK's offensive rebounding is a little better when Travis is out of the game as well.
The 3 lineups who have played the most without Travis have all played well:
Richards + starters has an adjusted margin of +0.41/poss, as they have limited opponents to an eFg% of 41% and blocked 15% of opponent shots, although they've rebounded poorly
Montgomery + starters has an adjusted margin of +0.37/poss, and they've held opponents to an eFg% of 35% although they've been even worse at rebounding than the previous lineup
Hagans/Quickley/Herro/Washington/Richards has an adjusted margin of +0.56/poss, although in only 24 possessions; they've shot poorly but held opponents to a minuscule 30% eFg% and blocked 13% of shots, while rebounding a little better than the other two
After those three it gets ugly; the next 5 most played lineups without Travis have been outscored by 3 points in total over 74 possessions.
The biggest issue is that these lineups have very little time playing against any good teams and putting up solid results. Here are all the instances where a lineup without Travis played more than 5 possessions against an SEC team or top non-conference team and outscored them:
Richards + starters were +2 in 8 poss vs Kansas
Montgomery + starters were +5 in 8 poss vs South Carolina
Richards/Hagans/Quickley/Herro/Washington were +4 in 9 poss vs Alabama
Montgomery/Hagans/Quickley/Herro/Washington were +2 in 6 poss vs Mississippi St
Richards/Hagans/Quickley/Baker/Washington were +5 in 7 poss vs South Carolina
Montgomery/Hagans/Quickley/Herro/Washington were +3 in 6 poss vs South Carolina
Half of these happened against South Carolina, who isn't very good. Richards + starters outscoring Kansas is probably the most impressive of these. To me, the most interesting thing is that Immanuel Quickley features so prominently when UK has had success without Travis. I went back and watched some of the film of these performances to see what was happening.
On offense, Richards and Montgomery were largely used as screeners, with Herro and (sometimes) Quickley darting around them off the ball. Richards and Montgomery would occasionally duck into the lane for open looks, but they were mostly used to free up UK's guards. Richards and Montgomery would hit the offensive glass; in fact, this seemed to be how UK generated a lot of offense. On defense, they were asked to contest shots and rebound, although they did the former better than the latter.
I believe this actually works really well with Quickley. He's not a strong driver, but can use the big man screens to get open on or off the ball. While he hasn't been shooting well lately, he can spot up from three an present a challenge, especially after offensive rebounds. His deficiencies are hid a bit by using more screens, and by having Quickley operate off-ball as a spot up shooter more. On defense, Quickley is a very good on-ball defender, as is Hagans. Richards and Montgomery are more likely to block shots when UK's guards put up a fight on the ball, and it's harder for the ballhandler to dump off a pass if a big man is left open by the attempted block. Because Keldon Johnson is not as strong on the ball, Richards and Montgomery often leave a wide-open passing lane if they step up to challenge a shot once Johnson is beaten.
What does this mean for UK?
Looking through the data, I believe a few things to be true. First, UK will probably not see a big drop-off without Travis; they'll be a bit better defensively, a bit worse at rebounding, and a bit worse at taking care of the ball. Outside shooting will become more important, since UK might be taking less shots than their opponent due to opponents getting offensive rebounds and UK turning it over. Second, UK will likely have rough starts to games. Lineups without Travis haven't done well against opposing starting lineups, who may be able to expose some of the inexperience of Richards and Montgomery. However, the length should be able to overwhelm most bench units. Third, UK should probably increase Immanuel Quickley's minutes a bit, since he's been a consistent part of UK success when Travis sits. His solid on-ball D sets up Richards and Montgomery, and using Richards and Montgomery as screens helps mitigate some of his offensive weaknesses.
UK's likely going to be fine without Travis, although they will have some rough patches. The two most important outcomes are getting Travis healthy, and getting some of UK's backups in positions to succeed and build confidence. If they accomplish these two, this injury could be a blessing in disguise to propel UK to a strong tournament run.
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