What Cost UK the Most Against LSU? Fast Breaks and Putbacks...and not just the BIG one...
Kentucky's loss to LSU was a difficult one for fans, given that is was dramatic and probably unjust. Some key factors that led to this loss happened well before the final buzzer, however. In this edition of Hoops Insight I'll reveal those factors and whether I think they are a fluke or indicative of something more serious for the Wildcats. Before I get into that, here's the stats profile for UK for the last few games:
Stats Profile for UK vs South Carolina/Mississippi St./LSU, Feb 5-12, 2019
What You Should Know: Take a closer look at table B in the stats profile, which shows the % of shots and eFg% broken down by the time it takes to get the shots. In the last 3 games, UK is taking 26% of their shots in the first 10 seconds of the shot clock, and has a 35%eFG% on these shots. For the season, UK takes 33% of their shots in these situations and has a 54% eFG%.
Against LSU, UK had a 37% eFG% on 15 shots in the first 10 seconds. If UK had shot their season average of 54%, that would account for 5 extra points and they would have won the game.
UK also gave up more putback baskets against LSU than they have all season. LSU was 4-4 on putbacks; no UK opponent had made more than 2 putbacks in a game, and only Mississippi State had more putback attempts (they went 2-5 in the Jan 22 matchup). If LSU had gone 2-4 on putbacks instead of 4-4, UK would have won by 2 points. Even if they had missed 1 putback, the game would have gone to overtime. Considering the winning basket was a putback, this seems extremely poetic and relevant!
What Is Happening? Let's consider each issue separately. First, the issue with the shooting in the first 10 seconds. Most of these types of shots come on the fast break, or by a player trailing the fast break. These tend to be the highest percentage shots, for 2 reasons: 1) a lot of them are layups/dunks in transition, and 2) teams usually don't shoot them unless they are open. But in each of the last 3 games, UK has shot worse on these shots than on shots later in the clock. These are the only 3 times all season UK has been under 39% on shots under 10 seconds. The culprits are Keldon Johnson, PJ Washington, and Reid Travis; collectively, they are 2-16 on these shots in the last 3 games with an eFG% of 16%, while the rest of the team is 13-31 with an eFG% of a more respectable 46%. I went back and watched every one of these shots for these 3 players, and the issue seems to be largely bad luck. These players are 1-7 combined on 3 pointers in the first 10 seconds, but every one of those threes was an open look. This trio is shooting 38% from 3 on the season combined, so 1-7 is atypical. They've gone 1-9 on 2 pointers, and that includes a missed alley-oop dunk and 2 missed point blank layups. Several of their twos have been guarded, but they've deserved better than 1-9. Shooting this poor doesn't seem likely to continue.
The issue with the putback shots was due more to poor defensive rebounding than anything. Nearly every one of the putbacks saw UK players out of position, with 2 of them in particular being the result of 2 Wildcats challenging the same shooter and an LSU player collecting an easy follow. LSU is an excellent offensive rebounding team, rating 12th in the country, but UK should be able to handle that. Auburn rates 16th in the same category, and UK gave up 1 putback in that whole game, which Auburn missed.
What Does This Mean for UK? UK's trio of Johnson/Washington/Travis are unlikely to continue their poor run shooting on the fast break and secondary break, and that's going to provide a nice boost to the offense. UK probably left a handful of points on the court in each of the last 3 games just in these three players fast break shots, and they still nearly went 3-0 in that stretch. Watch to see if UK's open threes in transition fall in the next game or two; the Wildcats will be awfully tough to beat if they do.
The defensive rebounding issues come down to effort and technique, but there's little reason to think those won't get corrected. As I pointed out, UK has shown no signs this year of being vulnerable to putbacks from active teams, and I don't expect them to start now. The Tennessee game isn't likely to see the same issue either. For all of their good qualities, the Vols' Grant Williams and Admiral Schofield aren't particularly strong on the offensive glass; neither would be one of the 4 best offensive rebounder on either Kentucky or LSU. Only their center Kyle Alexander has shown a tendency to get offensive rebounds, and even he hasn't gotten more than 3 offensive boards since January 8th. This would be a nice opportunity for UK to refocus and dominate the defensive glass. If UK can bounce back in fast break scoring and avoid giving up putbacks, that would indicate the loss against LSU was a momentary blip. The Wildcats should still be considered among the nation's handful of elite teams.
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