Ashton Hagans Makes His Teammates Better: What You Should Know About UK for Feb 8
Things started clicking for UK this season shortly after Ashton Hagans was installed as the starting point guard on Dec 8 against Seton Hall. While UK lost that game, they've only lost one other since and they've risen to contend for a possible #1 seed in the NCAA tournament. Part of this is that Hagans is generating good shots for his fellow guards. How is this happening, and how can UK avoid a dropoff when Hagans rests? More on this below, plus the latest stats profiles for UK in this edition of Hoops Insight.
UK vs Vandy/Florida/South Carolina stats profile
What You Should Know: UK's guards all shoot much better on 2 pointers when they play alongside Ashton Hagans:
Keldon Johnson improves from 48% without Hagans to 56% with him
Tyler Herro jumps from a 49% shooter on twos to a 57% shooters with Hagans in
Immanuel Quickley skyrockets from 30% without Hagans to 67% with him in
This effect isn't present on 3 point shooting for these players; all three have virtually identical 3P% whether Hagans is in the game or not. This effect also isn't present for UK's big men. PJ Washington shoots 53% on twos in either case, and Reid Travis is at 56% with Hagans and 54% without.
What Is Happening? The easiest explanation would be that these players get more fast breaks with Hagans, but that's not the case. If we look at all shots taken in the first 10 seconds of the shot clock, we see that Johnson and Herro don't get more of those types of shots with Hagans in:
37% of Keldon Johnson's shots are in the first 10 seconds when Hagans plays, and 36% when Hagans sits
Herro takes 35% of his shots in the first 10 seconds with Hagans in, and 43% with Hagans out
Only Immanuel Quickley takes more shots in the first 10 seconds with Hagans in (36% vs 31%), but he takes so few shots that this likely isn't significant
Even though Hagans gets a lot of steals, those tend to result in his own fast break shots as he takes 42% of his shots in the first 10 seconds. The rest of UK's roster actually takes more of these shots when Hagans sits than when he plays (35% vs 33%). So, Hagans isn't generating more fast breaks for his teammates.
Shooting efficiency usually decreases as shot volume increases, and vice versa. Maybe these players shoot better when Hagans plays because they shoot less and pick their spots? That's not the case, either. Tyler Herro takes 20% of UK's 2 pointers when playing alongside Hagans, and 19% without Hagans. Keldon Johnson sees a small uptick when Hagans sits (19% with vs 21% without), but that's not likely enough to make his shooting percentage better by itself. Immanuel Quickley shoots 2's so infrequently (5% when Hagans plays, 9% when Hagans sits) that it's unlikely he's even forcing many bad twos. So if it's not explained by differences in shot volume, what is it?
The explanation is likely due to the way UK's guards play on offense with and without Hagans. The recent game against South Carolina is a great example of this. Against the Gamecocks, Herro/Johnson/Quickley combined to shoot 6-10 on 2 pointers when playing alongside Hagans but were 0-6 when Hagans sat. Watching the game, it's evident how these players get shots with and without Hagans.
With Hagans in the game, UK's other guards tend to get 2 point shots off of two types of action: either off kickout passes when Hagans drives, or off of designed plays where they curl off a screen. In either case, UK's guards are asked to dribble very little to create these shots. When Hagans sits, UK's other guards get the ball more often when isolated one-on-one outside the three point line. This scenario puts more pressure on them to create off the dribble, leading to tougher shots. UK's offensive actions also tend to linger outside the three point line more when Hagans isn't in the game, without his threat of penetration. This means that the 2 pointers that are taken tend to be deeper, although I don't have specific data on this.
What Does This Mean for UK? When Ashton Hagans sits, UK should consider running more of their offense out of PJ Washington in the high post instead of using Quickley as a traditional point guard. Quickley is probably better cast as an outside shooter than as a penetrating point guard, as only 14% of his shots have come at the rim this year; only Jemarl Baker takes a lower percentage of shots at the rim (Baker's taken zero shots at the rim, by the way). Meanwhile, Washington is a solid passer who has a higher assist rate than any frontcourt player under Calipari and higher than such perimeter standouts as Jamal Murray, Malik Monk, Aaron Harrison, and Devin Booker. Using him in the high post to initiate offense could get the ball deeper inside the three point arc and allow UK's guards to run the same type of action as when Hagans is at the point.
As UK looks to make a deep NCAA tournament run, it would behoove them to shore up smaller, marginal weaknesses such as this. Should Hagans run into foul trouble (or worse, injury) UK will need to avoid a dropoff on offense. I believe a tweak of making Washington more of a playmaker could help keep the offense afloat without Hagans on the court.
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