3 Key Lineups are Driving UofL’s Improvement
The 2019 version of the Louisville Cardinals seems to be an immense upgrade on the 2018 version, much in the way that an automaker redesigns a car. However, Louisville didn't have the benefit of many months of research & design; rather, they seem to have pulled off this transformation in the matter of a few days between their non-conference schedule and the start of ACC play. It's a stunning pivot for anyone versed in the way college basketball usually works, where teams show some progress but stumble off and on. In this edition of Hoops Insight, I look at a few key lineups who have spearheaded this growth.
What You Should Know: During ACC play, UofL as a team is +120 in 536 possessions (excluding garbage time). That's good for an adjusted margin of +0.37 points per possession. That is better than Virginia's mark for the full season, which leads the nation. Prior to ACC play, UofL was +98 in 924 possessions for an adjusted margin of +0.22. This would put UofL about 25th-30th for the full season.
The improvement in ACC play is driven entirely by 3 lineups:
Cunningham/Fore/Nwora/Sutton/Williams, who have taken over as the starters
Cunningham/McMahon/Nwora/Sutton/Williams
Cunningham/McMahon/Nwora/Sutton/Enoch
Prior to ACC play, these 3 combined were -29 in 87 possessions, for an adjusted margin of -0.14 points per possession. During ACC play, they are +110 in 206 possessions, for an adjusted margin of +0.68 points per possessions.
All other UofL lineups were +127 in 837 non-conference possessions, for an adjusted margin of +0.26. During ACC play, they are +10 in 330 possessions for an adjusted margin of +0.18.
So, UofL took 3 lineups which had been terrible and played less than 10% of the time in non-conference, and now have them dominating while playing 40% of the time in conference play.
What Is Happening? Basically, these 3 lineups got better at nearly everything. Here are their stats in non-conference:
and here are the same stats for conference play:
They have improved everywhere, except in drawing fouls. With a shift this immense, a lot of things have to change. To spot key differences, I looked at game film from the games against Indiana and North Carolina.
Against Indiana, these lineups were -17 in 18 possessions; it was their worst performance. UNC was their best performance, at +18 in 20 possessions. Watching the film, big differences stand out on offense and defense.
On offense, the Cards have improved immensely in ball movement. By my eyes, this is driven by Christen Cunningham improving as the ballhandler off of screens. Against Indiana, he frequently dribbled a bit too far and left himself with no passing lanes. He also didn’t attack the screen to try to get around it; he would just dribble past it and see what his options were. This allowed Indiana defenders to recover and start a trap. Against UNC, Cunningham would either drive into the lane, or set himself up for an open pass to the screener. This has a domino effect of forcing the defense to scramble, leaving open shooters for UofL.
On defense, UofL appears to have drastically raised their effort level. Against Indiana, UofL struggled to guard screens and keep the ball out of the lane. Williams and Enoch in particular seemed confused by their help defense responsibilities, and allowed a lot of baskets in the lane. Against UNC, UofL was aggressive in switching to shut down the penetration. Even more so, however, the help defense was always present. Williams and Enoch looked much more comfortable sagging off of their man to help when Sutton or Nwora would gamble for a deflection. On the perimeter, UofL switched seamlessly and forced the ball to rotate around the perimeter. The Cards got their hands on a ton of passes simply by always being in position to deny the easy action.
What Does This Mean for UofL? I am a bit surprised that the drastic improvement has been limited to just these 3 lineups; no other lineups or combinations have really shown anywhere near this level of improvement. I am a little stunned that UofL’s coaches had the foresight to lean so heavily in these groups in ACC play, given that they had shown very little prior. The coaching staff clearly has a very good handle on which players and lineups are understanding their philosophy and are ready for more time. I do think UofL may be a bit vulnerable to foul trouble for Christen Cunningham, given that he really is the engine on offense lately; I also think that defenses who can switch well on screens can cause the Cards some issues. On defense, UofL is playing aggressively and may be vulnerable to tight whistles. However, this improvement by UofL is real and impressive. Anything can happen in any one game, but UofL clearly has a rotation of a few lineups that keep the team playing at a very high level. This is absolutely a team that can make noise in the NCAA tournament, and should not be satisfied with just a bid.
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