UofL is passing their way to greatness...What You Should Know for January 24
It was difficult to know what to expect from the Louisville Cardinals before this season, and the sample of 18 games hasn't made it much easier. In non-conference, they had no double digit wins over top 100 teams; in ACC play, they are 4-1 with 4 double digit wins, the largest over blue-blood North Carolina. According to ratings like NET and KenPom.com, this team could be on its way to a top-4 seed in the NCAA tournament. But, a daunting conference schedule ahead could leave them on the NCAA bubble. Let's take an indepth look at UofL's roller coaster season so far and try to make some sense out of it. But first, here are some stats profiles for recent games, and the season (broken into 3 segments for reasons I'll get to soon).
UofL vs Boston College/Georgia Tech, Jan 16 & 19
UofL 2018-19 season, 1st 8 games (Nov 8-Dec 5)
UofL 2018-19 season, Next 5 games (Dec 8-Dec 29)
UofL 2018-19 season, Last 5 games (Jan 6-Jan 19)
What You Should Know: Adjusted scoring margin per possession presents UofL's scoring margin against an opponent, adjusted for the number of possessions in a game and the per-possession rating of the opponent using ratings from Kenpom.com. It effectively tells you how much better UofL is than an average team on a per-possession basis. I have also incorporated a recent adjustment to account for home/neutral/road games, using KenPom's home court advantage metrics. UofL has clearly had an up-and-down season by this metric, with good and bad stretches:
Nov 8 through Dec 5: Adjusted margin per possession of +0.25; best single game was +0.48 vs Central Arkansas, worst was +0.05 vs Nicholls State
Dec 8 through Dec 29: Adjusted margin per possession of +0.16; best was +0.23 vs Indiana and worst was +0.03 vs Kentucky
Jan 6 through Jan 19: Adjusted margin per possession of +0.40; best was +0.82 vs Georga Tech and worst was +0.16 vs Pittsburgh
What Is Happening? The stats profiles at the top of this article offer up a number of stats for each of these stretches which can help provide context to how UofL was performing. In Table A on each profile are the overall team stats for each selection of games. The first thing I noticed was that most of the defensive stats have been more consistent than the offensive ones. UofL's points allowed per possession for each stretch have been 0.92, 0.97, and 0.94, respectively, while the points scored per possession have been 1.06, 1.02, and 1.17. Effective FG% has followed a similar pettern, with opponent eFG% staying relatively consistent at 48%, 50%, and 48%, but UofL's eFG% bouncing around more from 53% to 49% to 56% in this most recent stretch.
The volatility on offense has been driven largely by 2 point shooting, where UofL has gone from 54% to 46% to 57%; 3 point shooting has hovered around 35-36% during all 3 stretches. Unlike the beginning of the season, when UofL feasted at the free throw line, they have drawn relatively few free throws in this most recent hot stretch. During the season-opening 8 games, UofL shot about 57% as many free throws as field goals; that has dropped to 27% as many lately. While UofL's rate of turning the ball over did jump from 16% of possessions in the opening 8 games to 19% during the next 5, it has been at 17% over the last 5; this recent hot stretch has not been driven by taking better care of the ball.
So, UofL's strong play against ACC teams is driven largely by offensive improvement, stemming from hitting their 2 pointers. What is driving this? Hoop-math.com has data about where shots are taken, and is highly worth a subscription. Using their data, we can see that UofL hasn't really improved wheere their shots come from, but are just shooting better. For the full season, UofL has taken 23.5% of their shots in transition, and have an eFG% of 64% on these. During their last 5 games, UofL is again taking 23.5% of their shots in transition, but have an eFg% of 68% on them. On non-transition shots, UofL has an eFG% of 50% for the season, and 51.4% in the last 5 games. You'd expect that uofL is maybe getting more shots at the rim and fewer 2 point jumpers, but that's not the case. UofL is taking 31% of their shots at the rim and 25% as 2 point jumpers, compared to 33% and 24.5% for the season; they've actually moved the wrong way in shot selection. But, UofL is has raised their eFG5 on shots at the time from 63% to 67%, and on 2 point jumpers from 40% to 43%.
The difference is that UofL is moving the ball better and getting more baskets off assists. For the season, UofL has assisted on 54% of their made baskets, but this has increased to 59% in the last 5 games. Among UofL's main lineups, the one with the biggest jump in assist rate recently has been the grouping o Cunningham/Fore/Sutton/Nwora/Enoch. They have an assist rate of 50% for the seaosn, but that has jumped to 63% in the last 5 games. Dwayne Sutton in particular has become a sharper passer, assisting on 16% of UofL's baskets in the last 5 games after assisting on only 10% earlier in the season. Watching the film, the Cunningham/Sutton high pick-and-roll has become an especially effective weapon for the Cards. With Nwora and Fore spreading the floor, Sutton sets a screen and is open in the middle of the floor. Against UNC, Cunningham was trapped frequently and Sutton was an easy outlet valve. He then would move the ball quickly to an open shooter or to Enoch in the post, depending on where the defensive help came from. Sutton's passing ability has unlocked some easier shots for UofL and is helping the Cards reach their potential.
What Does This Mean? Louisville's improved ball movement is impressive and is clearly powering their offensive surge. This is key for a team with few truly dynamic offensive creators, and few surefire NBA athletes. Amazingly, all of UofL's 5 most played lineups in ACC play have increased their assist rate from earlier in the season. That means the whole team is buying in to this offensive style. This is evident of Chris Mack's input, as his last 5 Xavier teams all ranked in the top 60 nationally in assist rate while Louisville has not ranked in the top 100 since 2011, or in the top 220 since 2014. UofL fans should be encouraged that their new coaching staff is putting their stylistic imprint on the team, and unlocking the potential of even veteran players like Dwayne Sutton. Good things are ahead for this team, for this season and beyond.
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