This is Calipari's best-shooting UK team: What You Should Know about UK for Jan 21
Kentucky got a big road win against Auburn, notching the first road SEC win over a top-15 ranked team in John Calipari's tenure at UK. In the win, UK shot 6-15 on threes and posted an effective field goal percentage of 60%, the highest of the season for UK against a top-100 opponent (per KenPom.com). Before the season, Coach Calipari proclaimed that this might be the best shooting team he'd coached at UK...and he is probably right. Before I get into why I think he's right, here are the stats profiles for the last 2 games and the season to date.
UK vs Georgia, Jan 15, 2019
UK vs Auburn, Jan 19, 2019
UK Season to Date through Jan 19
What You Should Know: Through January 19th, Kentucky has an effective field goal percentage (eFG%) of 54.2% on offense. If they maintain that for the full season, that would be the highest eFG% for any UK team under Calipari. The 2011-12 NCAA title team has the record currently at 53.8%.
Effective field goal percentage is a way to restate field goal percentage, accounting for the additional value a 3 pointer brings. Shooting 5-10 on 3 pointers would obviously be more valuable than shooting 5-10 on 2 pointers, but both performances have the same traditional field goal percentage.
Effective field goal percentage gives extra credit by counting made 3 pointers as 1.5 baskets, while still counting made 2 pointers as 1. The formula is (1.5 x 3PM + 1 x 2PM)/(3PA + 2PA). In common language, it represents the equivalent field goal percentage a team would need to shoot if they took only 2 pointers in order to make the same number of points. A team shooting 5-10 would have an eFG% of 75% (1.5 x 5 = 7.5; 7.5/10 = 75%). Effective field goal percentage can also be easily converted into points per field goal attempt by multiplying by 2; a 75% eFg% = 1.5 points per shot.
Because this UK team has the highest effective field goal percentage of any of Calipari's UK teams, they are the best at making shots. For reference, here are the eFG% for each Calipari team at UK:
2009-10: 53.1%
2010-11: 52.3%
2011-12: 53.8%
2012-13: 52.6%
2013-14: 49.9%
2014-15: 51.5%
2015-16: 53.5%
2016-17: 52.9%
2017-18: 51.8%
2018-19 (so far): 54.2%
What Is Happening? Despite that stat, this is absolutely not the best 3 point shooting team Calipari has had at UK. In fact, they are one of the worst. at 34.9% for the season so far, they are the 4th worst under Calipari ahead only of 2013-14, 2012-13, and 2009-10. They are, however, the best 2 point shooting team at 54.9%. The key is that they are wisely taking relatively few threes, and focusing instead on their strong 2 point shooting.
We can calculate the points per shot that UK is getting on 2's and 3's by multiplying the shooting percentage times the respective points a shot is worth. UK is generating 1.098 points per 2 pointer (54.9% x 2) and 1.047 points per 3 pointer (34.9% x 3). Only 30.1% of UK's shots are three pointers, which ranks 336th nationally. There's not much reason for UK to shoot more threes, given that they get more points per shot on twos.
The only other year where UK had such a big difference in the points per shot between twos and threes was the 2009-10 team, when they generated 1.092 points per 2 pointer (54.6%) and only 0.993 per 3 pointer (33.1%). Logic would say that team should have shot threes less frequently than this year's team, but they actually were a bit more three-happy, with 31.3% of their shots coming from deep. That ranked 198th nationally, close to average, for a team that had no business shooting threes that often.
Why, then, is Kentucky so good at shooting 2 pointers? Using historical stats from hoop-math.com, we can unravel some of the layers. Hoop Math splits possessions into transition and non-transition, and has history going back to the 2011-12 season. Here are the stats for UK's current season, as well as the 2 contenders for best eFG% season (2011-12 and 2015-16):
2018-19: 24.2% of FGA in transition, eFG% of 59.8%; 75.8% non-transition, eFG% of 52.4%
2015-16: 22.3% in transition, eFG% of 55.6%; 77.7% non-transition, eFG% of 52.9%
2011-12: 23.2% in transition, eFG% of 60.5%; 76.8% non-transition, eFG% of 51.7%
This season, UK is getting a higher percentage of shots in transition than ever before, and shooting nearly as well as ever in transition. Tyler Herro and Ashton Hagans in particular are helping to drive this for UK, as roughly 1/3 of their shots come in transition. By comparison, none of the 2015-16 team guards (Murray, Ulis, Briscoe) took more than 28% of their shots in transition, and Briscoe was at 20%. In 2011-12, Doron Lamb led UK with 30.2% of his shots in transition.
Also of note, Keldon Johnson and Immanuel Quickley have proven to be efficient half-court scorers. Although they each only get about 1/4 of their shots in transition, they each rank in the top 5 for eFG% for guards/wings under Calipari at UK. The rest of the top 5 consists of true outside snipers: Doron Lamb, Devin Booker, and Jamal Murray. While UK fans may not think of Johnson and Quickley as true outside marksmen, they are as good as any of UK's best guards of recent vintage at scoring efficiently.
What Does This Mean for UK?
Kentucky is turnover-prone this year, no question about it. They rank 191st in turnover rate, losing the ball on 19.1% of their possessions. But, when the Wildcats hang onto the ball, they are quite good at scoring. The good news is, UK has gotten even a bit better since Ashton Hagans took over the starting point guard role. Prior to Dec 8th, UK has en eFG% of 54.9% and a turnover rate of 21.0%. Since Dec 8th, against tougher competition, UK has an eFG% of 53.9% and a turnover rate of 17.4%. As opponents have gotten tougher, UK shoots nearly as well and turns it over way less. With Hagans and Herro in the game during that time, the Wildcats' eFG% jumps to 55.5% and turnover rate drops to 15.8%. Both of these stats would rank in the top 25 nationally.
Quite simply, UK is starting to take on the profile of an elite offensive team. They are combining the ability to score efficiently with a decreasing turnover frequency. Even though they are not a typical deadeye modern three-point juggernaut, Kentucky absolutely has a knack for putting the ball in the basket efficiently. In even better news, only 1 of UK's remaining regular-season opponents ranks in the top 25 nationally in eFG% defense (Tennessee). So, UK should be able to score even against a difficult upcoming schedule. I've said it before and I'll say it again now: this is absolutely a Final Four-caliber team.
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