Quick Thoughts on UK vs UofL, and how UK can use Nick Richards
I want to focus most of this newsletter on Nick Richards, and how Kentucky might be able to find a consistent productive role for him. Before that, however, I want to offer some quick thoughts on the UK-UofL game. Obviously, UK played a great game and was in control nearly the whole game. I want to call particular attention to something which I highlighted in a recent UK newsletter (link here). In that newsletter, I mentioned how UK's latest starting lineup of Hagans/Herro/Johnson/Washington,Travis was playing more per game than any UK lineup this season, but had not been putting up plus/minus results that would be expected. They had not led UK in plus/minus in any game in which they were the most played lineup, and their defensive stats and results agaisnt bench lineups were poorer than would be expected. My assessment was that they were due for a big plus/minus game, since they had been pounding opposing starting lineups, and results against bench lineups would catch up.
They had their breakthrough game against Louisville. That particular lineup played 26 possessions and outscored Louisville by +14 points, both team highs for this season. True to form, they outscored the opposing starting lineup by +5 points in 9 possessions. They also handled the bench lineups in this game, with a +9 in 19 possessions. This made a huge difference for Kentucky in the comfortable win. Below is the stats profile for the game.
UK Stats Profile vs Louisville, Dec 29, 2018
With UK now having some heavily-played lineups who are playing well, there is an opportunity to focus on other opportunities to find marginal improvement. One of those areas for improvement is the role of Nick Richards. Richards has not topped 12 minutes played since the third game of the season, and has not found a consistent place in the rotation. While I find it hard to say he's earned a larger role than he's gotten, there are opportunities to potentially tweak the situations where he plays to put him in a better place to succeed.
What You Should Know: This season, Nick Richards has had the biggest positive impact when sharing the court with Reid Travis. Over the last 5 games With Richards and Travis in, Kentucky has an adjusted scoring margin of +42 points per 100 possessions; with Travis in but Richards out, it drops to +27 per 100. Also, Richards' individual stats for the season improve the most when sharing the court with Travis. Richards has an effective FG% of 80% with Travis in the game, and gets 23.5% of the available defensive rebounds. Without Travis, Richards' eFG% drops to 50%, and he gets only 18% of the defensive rebounds.
What Is Happening? For every other teammate, UK has a better scoring margin when that player plays without Richards. But, UK's plays improves when Travis and Richards share the frontcourt. This isn't just a factor of Richards and Travis playing against bench lineups or easy competition. It's true that Richards and Travis play together against opposing benches, but their adjusted margin in the last 5 games against 3 or fewer starters is +67 pts per 100; when Travis plays with Richards against 3 or fewer starters, UK's adjusted margin is +35 per 100. Richards and Travis were highly effective against UNC together, as they posted a +4 in 10 possessions. Watching the film of this game, my best guess as to why they are effective is that Travis can be more of the post defender, and let Richards focus on crashing the glass. Richards also had a strong defensive possession guarding North Carolina's Nasir Little, a wing who is projected as a top 5 NBA draft pick. Richards was able to move with him on the drive and contest his shot. He looked much more fluid doing this than on help defense as a post defender, where his timing seems off.The fact that UNC plays 2 big men more than many other college teams may also help Richards be more effective, as he's not having to cover 3 point shooters as much against the Tar Heels.
What Does This Mean for UK? Richards has not had a strong year, but there are likely spots where he can be utilized without hurting the team too much. Based on the data and the watching some limited film of Travis and Richards together, it appears that's the frontcourt combo where he can be most effective. Travis tends to operate in the post, whereas PJ Washington and EJ Montgomery operate a bit further from the basket and look to drive. Richards' presence on the floor may hurt the driving lanes for these players, as Richards' man frequently leaves him to double team. Travis passes from the post well enough to counter this. UK should look to spot Richards minutes against bench lineups with Travis to see if this combo can continue to be effective, or at least not get outscored. It just so happens that the pairing of PJ Washington and EJ Montgomery has also been very effective, with an adjusted margin of +88 pts per 100, compared to +30 per 100 when Washington plays without Montgomery. UK should look to use these big man pairings in the middle of each half to alternate giving Washington and Travis a rest before closing games with their preferred frontcourt duo.
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